It is difficult for governments of private companies to find a moderate or reasonable tourism supply, because of severe competition. Moreover, because demand of tourists is discontinuing ana fluctuating, tourism plans must be based upon an accurate demand forecasting, in order to prevent surplus cap...
It is difficult for governments of private companies to find a moderate or reasonable tourism supply, because of severe competition. Moreover, because demand of tourists is discontinuing ana fluctuating, tourism plans must be based upon an accurate demand forecasting, in order to prevent surplus capacity. For these reasons, demand forecasting is very important in tourism planning. Increasing visits of Chinese tourists to Korea is very important and necessary for revitalizing of Korea inbound market. And the importance of the Chinese tourist market has soared by the entering the WTO by china in 2001. The purposes of this study were: 1. to estimate demand functions for Chinese tourists who visit Korea by using approved determinants used in previous studies as variables 2. to forecast tourism demand of the chinese tourist number. The report was organized in the following way. In chapter Ⅱ, the author reviewed the literature and stocks related to demand forecasting. In chapter Ⅲ, the status and trend of the market for chinese tourism introduced briefly. In chapter Ⅳ, the character of explanatory variables and dependent variables as a research methodology were explained and analysis model was introduced. In this study, the explanatory variables adopted were GDP(gross domestic product) of China, EX(exchange rate), CPI(comsumer price index) and dummy variable, Dummy variable was also used for analyze the influence of the IMF crisis and SARS(severe acute respiratory syndrome). The dependent variable was the number of Chinese visitor to Korea Annual and quarterly data from 1993 to 2004 was used n the analysis, and the forecasts are presented for 5 years starting from the second quarter of 2004. Analysis methods were regression analysis to estimate influence of economical variables and autoregressive model to forecast demand of the number of Chinese tourists to Korea. In chapter Ⅴ, main findings could be summarized as follows. 1. The empirical estimations using annual data and quarterly data, the GDP of China, CPI and dummy variables were statistically significant, The GDP was found to be elastic(regression coefficient were 1.88 for annual data). The Consumer price index was also significant but affected inversely(-4.02). The Exchange rate was statistically insignificant. 2. The findings forecasted that China tourists will be around 614,680 in 2005 and 803,063 in 2008. The rate of Chines tourists visit to Korea will steadily grow by 6% in yearly average. The author hopes that this research could contribute to the development of more international travel marketing strategy, international demand forecasting and management program and that the further research could be made along this line of study in the future.
It is difficult for governments of private companies to find a moderate or reasonable tourism supply, because of severe competition. Moreover, because demand of tourists is discontinuing ana fluctuating, tourism plans must be based upon an accurate demand forecasting, in order to prevent surplus capacity. For these reasons, demand forecasting is very important in tourism planning. Increasing visits of Chinese tourists to Korea is very important and necessary for revitalizing of Korea inbound market. And the importance of the Chinese tourist market has soared by the entering the WTO by china in 2001. The purposes of this study were: 1. to estimate demand functions for Chinese tourists who visit Korea by using approved determinants used in previous studies as variables 2. to forecast tourism demand of the chinese tourist number. The report was organized in the following way. In chapter Ⅱ, the author reviewed the literature and stocks related to demand forecasting. In chapter Ⅲ, the status and trend of the market for chinese tourism introduced briefly. In chapter Ⅳ, the character of explanatory variables and dependent variables as a research methodology were explained and analysis model was introduced. In this study, the explanatory variables adopted were GDP(gross domestic product) of China, EX(exchange rate), CPI(comsumer price index) and dummy variable, Dummy variable was also used for analyze the influence of the IMF crisis and SARS(severe acute respiratory syndrome). The dependent variable was the number of Chinese visitor to Korea Annual and quarterly data from 1993 to 2004 was used n the analysis, and the forecasts are presented for 5 years starting from the second quarter of 2004. Analysis methods were regression analysis to estimate influence of economical variables and autoregressive model to forecast demand of the number of Chinese tourists to Korea. In chapter Ⅴ, main findings could be summarized as follows. 1. The empirical estimations using annual data and quarterly data, the GDP of China, CPI and dummy variables were statistically significant, The GDP was found to be elastic(regression coefficient were 1.88 for annual data). The Consumer price index was also significant but affected inversely(-4.02). The Exchange rate was statistically insignificant. 2. The findings forecasted that China tourists will be around 614,680 in 2005 and 803,063 in 2008. The rate of Chines tourists visit to Korea will steadily grow by 6% in yearly average. The author hopes that this research could contribute to the development of more international travel marketing strategy, international demand forecasting and management program and that the further research could be made along this line of study in the future.
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#중국관광시장 수요 회귀모형 China tourism market
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