Hong, Ki-Ok
(National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)
,
Lee, Gil-Hong
(National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)
,
Pak, Son-Il
(Department of Veterinary Medicine, Kangwon National University)
A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variabili...
A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variability, using different assumptions on the effect of cooking at home, the effect of the fresh meat, and the effect of heat treatment at garbage processing facility. The median risk estimate was about 20.1% with a mean value of 27.4%. In a scenario regarding all beef and pork were considered as fresh meat the estimated median risk was 3.4%. The risk was greatly dependent on the survival parameters of the FMD virus during the cooking or heat treatment at garbage processing facility. Uncertainty about the proportion of garbage that is likely contaminated with FMD had a major positive influence on the risk, whereas conversion rate representing the size of a load had a major negative effect. This model was very useful in assessing the risk explored. However, the model also requires enhancements, such as the availability of more accurate data to verify the various assumptions considered such as FMD prevalence in a specific country, proportion of garbage which is recycled as feed, proportion of food discarded as garbage. Other factors including the effect of selection of animals for slaughter, ante- and post-mortem inspection, the domestic distribution of the smuggled products, and susceptible animals other than pigs, are need to be taken into account in the future model development.
A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variability, using different assumptions on the effect of cooking at home, the effect of the fresh meat, and the effect of heat treatment at garbage processing facility. The median risk estimate was about 20.1% with a mean value of 27.4%. In a scenario regarding all beef and pork were considered as fresh meat the estimated median risk was 3.4%. The risk was greatly dependent on the survival parameters of the FMD virus during the cooking or heat treatment at garbage processing facility. Uncertainty about the proportion of garbage that is likely contaminated with FMD had a major positive influence on the risk, whereas conversion rate representing the size of a load had a major negative effect. This model was very useful in assessing the risk explored. However, the model also requires enhancements, such as the availability of more accurate data to verify the various assumptions considered such as FMD prevalence in a specific country, proportion of garbage which is recycled as feed, proportion of food discarded as garbage. Other factors including the effect of selection of animals for slaughter, ante- and post-mortem inspection, the domestic distribution of the smuggled products, and susceptible animals other than pigs, are need to be taken into account in the future model development.
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문제 정의
This risk assessment focuses mainly on release and exposure assessment in that the probability that FMDV could released into Korea and exposed to swine by smuggled animal products. According to the SPS agreement and OIE guidelines, relevant economic factors such as the potential damage in terms of loss of production of sales in the event of the entry, establishment or spread of a disease, should be taken into account in risk assessment and consequence assessment describe the potential consequences of a given exposure and estimates the probability of them occurring.
가설 설정
In addition, all beef and pork were considered as frozen so the virus could survive till the garbage was being fed to swine. In scenario 2, all beef and pork were considered as fresh so that FMDV didn’t survive to be fed to swine. The estimated risk was 3.
With this background the authors performed a risk assessment to answer the question: what is the probability that at least one load of garbage which is contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) and smuggled into Korea from foreign country, will be insufficiently treated and ultimately fed to Korean swine in a year? To the author’s knowledge the answers are of value to the government authorities as they continue to develop quarantine policy to reduce the disease risks associated with illegal imports, emphasizing the need to maintain high standards of biosecurity in Korea.
제안 방법
7%. This result would be used in consequence assessment as estimating how many pigs or farms could be infected with FMDV and estimating the resultant losses or the expense which is taken to prevent the FMD spread.
데이터처리
The formulas and probability distributions used in the model are described in Table 1. The model was written in Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Seattle, WA) and run using @Risk (Palisade, Newfield, NY) Monte Carlo simulation software with 10,000 iterations with Latin hypercube sampling.
성능/효과
3%. Based on this information, TG was estimated as 4,101,500 kg and PG is 56.8%×53.3% = 30.3%. DR, the proportion of food discarded as garbage, was calculated TG divided by TF.
To incorporate the uncertainty of the prevalence, the probability distributions were estimated for each level of prevalence using triangular distribution. FMD prevalence in negligible risk group was designated as F1n, in low risk group as F1l, in moderate risk group as F1m and in high risk group as F1h.
In scenario 1, the effect of heat-treat at garbage processing facility was taken into account as 50% of the FMDV-contaminated garbage is sufficiently heattreated to inactivate the virus, and the estimated risk was 20.4%. While scenario 5 (assuming 25% inactivation) increased the estimate by about one and a half to 29.
2. The estimated probability that FMDV-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea.
후속연구
To include the uncertainty about the amount of illegally smuggled meat and meat products, it was estimated that only 10 to 50% of the amount was intercepted on entry. There should be more investigation about this. As for recycled feed, Korea has recommended people to recycle more swill, because of its limited land and soil or water contamination problem.
참고문헌 (16)
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CEAH. Risk assessment of the practice of feeding recycled commodities to domesticated swine in the US. pp. 1-58, CEAH (Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health), Fort Collins, US, 1995
CERA. VLA's risk assessment for the import of contaminated meat and meat products into Great Britain and the subsequent exposure of GB Livestock (Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), CERA (Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis). pp. 1-316, Fort Collins, US, 2004
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DAFF. Generic import risk analysis (IRA) for pig meat: final import risk analysis report. pp. 1-767, DAFF (Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry), Australia, 2003
Donaldson AI. Risks of spreading foot and mouth disease through milk and dairy products. Rev Sci Tech Off Int Epiz 1997, 16, 117-124
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