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공급사슬에서 계절적 수요를 고려한 채찍효과 측도의 개발

Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain Considering Seasonal Demand

Abstract

The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where demand variability is amplified when one moves upward a supply chain. In this paper, we exactly quantify the bullwhip effect for cases of seasonal demand processes in a two-echelon supply chain with a single retailer and a single supplier. In most of the previous research, some measures of performance for the bullwhip effect are developed for cases of non-seasonal demand processes. The retailer performs demand forecast with a multiplicative seasonal mixed model by using the minimum mean square error forecasting technique and employs a base stock policy. With the developed bullwhip effect measure, we investigate the impact of seasonal factor on the bullwhip effect. Then, we prove that seasonal factor plays an important role on the occurrence of the bullwhip effect.

참고문헌 (21)

  1. Duc, T. T. H., Luong, H. T., and Kim, Y. D. (2008), A Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with a Mixed Autoregressive-moving Average Demand Process, European Journal of Operational Research, 187(1), 243-256 
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  18. Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K., and Simchi-Levi, D. (2000b), The Impact of Exponential Smoothing Forecasts on the Bullwhip Effect, Naval Research Logistics, 47(4), 269-286 
  19. Kelle, P. and Milne, A. (1999), The Effect of (s, S) Ordering Policy on the Supply Chain, International Journal of Production Economics, 59(1-3), 113-122 
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이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (1)

  1. Cho, Dong-Won ; Lee, Young-Hae 2009. "Developing the Bullwhip Effect Measure in a Supply Chain Considering Seasonal Demand and Stochastic Lead Time" 한국경영과학회지 = Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, 34(4): 91~112 

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