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논문 상세정보

CMIP5 GCMs과 추정 방법에 따른 우리나라 기준증발산량 평가

Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration in South Korea according to CMIP5 GCMs and Estimation Methods

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

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