[논문]Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020

Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Hong, Seri; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Eun Sook

doi:10.4143/crt.2020.203

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020 원문보기

Cancer research and treatment : official journal of Korean Cancer Association, v.52 no.2, 2020년, pp.351 - 358

Jung, Kyu-Won (Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea) , Won, Young-Joo (Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea) , Hong, Seri (Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea) , Kong, Hyun-Joo (Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea) , Lee, Eun Sook (Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea)

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PurposeThis study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A Joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.ResultsIn total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the stomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer among people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.ConclusionThe incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

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참고문헌 (8)

1 Statistics Korea [Internet] Daejeon Statistics Korea 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 8]. Available from: http://kosis.kr
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3 Shin HR Won YJ Jung KW Kong HJ Yim SH Lee JK Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999~2001: first result using the National Cancer Incidence Database Cancer Res Treat 2005 37 325 31 19956367

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4 Fritz A Percy C Jack A Shanmugaratnam K Sobin L Parkin DM International classification of diseases for oncology 3rd ed. 1st revision Geneva World Health Organization 2013
5 World Health Organization International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems 10th rev Geneva World Health Organization 1994
6 Boyle P Parkin DM Cancer registration: principles and methods. Statistical methods for registries IARC Sci Publ 1991 95 126 58 1894318
7 National Cancer Institute Joinpoint regression program, version 4.3.1 [Internet] Bethesda, MD National Cancer Institute 2016 [cited 2019 Jul 8]. Available from: http://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint/
8 Segi M Cancer mortality for selected sites in 24 countries (1950-1957) Sendai Tohoku University School of Medicine 1960

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Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020 원문보기

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Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020 원문보기

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