We determined optimal fasting plasma glucose (FPG) cutoff values predictive of future diabetes development in a group of middle-aged Koreans who visited a health promotion center. The medical records of 2,964 subjects, who attended the Health Promotion Center in 1998 and 2003, were examined. Subjects were classified into four groups according to their baseline FPG values (Group 1:FPG <5.0 mM/L; Group 2: 5.0≤FPG <5.6 mM/L; Group 3: 5.6≤FPG <6.1 mM/L; Group 4: 6.1≤FPG <7.0 mM/L). No significant difference was observed between Group 1 and Group 2 in terms of diabetes incidence. However, incidence in Group 3 was significantly higher than that in Group 1 [hazards ratio 4.88 (1.65-14.41), p=0.004] and the hazards ratio in Group 4 for diabetes was 36.91 (13.11-103.61), p<0.001, versus Group 1. Receiver operator characteristics curve analysis showed that an FPG of 5.97 mM/L represents the lower limit and gives the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. Our data shows that the risk of future diabetes development started to increase below an FPG of 6.1 mM/L and suggests the importance of efforts to modify diabetes development risk factors at lower impaired fasting glucose levels.
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