초록 ▼

A system (10) and method (42,44,46,48,52,54) for generating an index (38,132,40,134) commensurate with the degree to which a tube array degrades over a period of time due to corrosion in a particular operating environment. A data array (62,114) is created defining the number of tubes in the tube arr

A system (10) and method (42,44,46,48,52,54) for generating an index (38,132,40,134) commensurate with the degree to which a tube array degrades over a period of time due to corrosion in a particular operating environment. A data array (62,114) is created defining the number of tubes in the tube array, a plurality of time points defining time intervals during which the degradation is to be assessed, and operating conditions that induce corrosion during each time interval. The expected degradation value of the array is computed over each of a plurality of time points using a deterministic failure model (88) having at least one parameter (102,104,106) that is assumed constant at each time point. For each time point and at least one parameter, a plurality of values of the parameter (108,110) that deviate from the assumed constant value, are generated. For each time point, a plurality of degradation values are computed using the deterministic model with each of the plurality of deviated values of the parameter, thereby defining a distribution (34) of degradation values at the time point surrounding the expected degradation value (36,130) at the time point. An index (38,132,40,134) is generated from the distribution of values, commensurate with the uncertainty at each time point, in the expected degradation value (36,130) as computed by the deterministic model.

대표청구항 ▼

[What is claimed is:] [1.]creating a data array defining a number of tubes in the tube array, a plurality of time points defining time intervals during which the degradation is to be assessed, and operating conditions that induce corrosion during each time interval;computing an expected degradation

[What is claimed is:] [1.]creating a data array defining a number of tubes in the tube array, a plurality of time points defining time intervals during which the degradation is to be assessed, and operating conditions that induce corrosion during each time interval;computing an expected degradation value of the tube array over each of a plurality of time points using a deterministic failure model having at least one parameter that is assumed to have a constant value at each time point;for each time point generating a plurality of values of said parameter that deviate from said assumed constant value;for each time point, computing a plurality of degradation values using said deterministic failure model with each of said plurality of deviated values of said parameter, thereby defining a distribution of degradation values at said time point surrounding said expected degradation value at said time point; andgenerating an index from said distribution of degradation values, commensurate with an uncertainty at each time point, in said expected degradation value as computed by said deterministic failure model.