초록 ▼

Ⅲ. 연구개발의 내용 및 범위
과수 재배지대별 주요 해충의 발생분포를 조사였으며, 온도 변화에 따른 과수해충의 생육 특성을 해석하였다. 과수 재배 지대별 주요 해충의 발생양상 및 영향 평가, GIS 이용 지구온난화에 따른 사과 주요 해충 발생변동 시뮬레이션, 벼 주요해충 발생변동 시뮬레이션 등을 수행하였다. 배추과 채소의 재배지대별 신문제 진균 및 세균병의 발생생태 및 특성을 조사였으며 기후변화와 배추과 채소 진균병 및 세균병의 발생관계를 분석하였다. 온도별로 바이러스병의 확산속도를 구명하여 미래 발생예측 변동에 대비하는 기술

Ⅲ. 연구개발의 내용 및 범위
과수 재배지대별 주요 해충의 발생분포를 조사였으며, 온도 변화에 따른 과수해충의 생육 특성을 해석하였다. 과수 재배 지대별 주요 해충의 발생양상 및 영향 평가, GIS 이용 지구온난화에 따른 사과 주요 해충 발생변동 시뮬레이션, 벼 주요해충 발생변동 시뮬레이션 등을 수행하였다. 배추과 채소의 재배지대별 신문제 진균 및 세균병의 발생생태 및 특성을 조사였으며 기후변화와 배추과 채소 진균병 및 세균병의 발생관계를 분석하였다. 온도별로 바이러스병의 확산속도를 구명하여 미래 발생예측 변동에 대비하는 기술을 개발하였다.

Abstract ▼

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean surface temperature increased by 0.74℃ between 1906 and 2005, and is expected to continue rising. In Korea, the temperature increased rapidly by 1.8℃between 1912 and 2010. The effect of global warming are expected to

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean surface temperature increased by 0.74℃ between 1906 and 2005, and is expected to continue rising. In Korea, the temperature increased rapidly by 1.8℃between 1912 and 2010. The effect of global warming are expected to cause phenological changes in exothermic organisms such as insect pests which are highly dependent on temperature. In present study, we estimated the emergence time of
three Lepidopteran insect pests (Carposina sasakii , Grapholita molesta , and Phyllonorycter ringoniella ) in apple orchards during 2000, 2020s, 2050s, and 2090s, by means of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with 2000, the emergence of C. sasakii is predicted to occur 5.5 ± 0.49 days earlier in 2020s, 14.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 40.0 ± 0.75 days earlier in 2090s; the emergence of G. molesta is predicted to occur 8.2± 0.36 days earlier in 2020s, 16.9 ± 0.40 days earlier in 2050s, and 49.7 ± 0.61 days earlier in 2090s; and the emergence of P. ringoniella is predicted to occur 9.0 ± 0.34 days earlier in 2020s, 20.5 ± 0.58 days earlier in 2050s, and 52.5 ± 0.63 days earlier in 2090s. The number of generations a year is expected to increase by 0.5-2.8 generations in 2050s, 1.3-6.7 in 2090s. Our predictions provide basic data for the development of early insect pest management strategies in spring under conditions of global warming.
At the result of that, the occurrence pattern of insect pathogen and disease was changed a little. At the analysis of light trap data for the past 40 years, overwintering 1^st generation of SBPH was moved from levee to paddy field 3~4 days
early in southern province, 7~9 days early in middle province in Korea. In the case of green leaf hopper, its moving time was 1~2 days early in southern area, and 3~5 days in middle area in Korea. In the last 40 years, leaf roller was spent 1~2
generations after taking on from china or south-east Asia. But nowadays, according to the analysis of light trap data, it spent 2.5 generation in Korea.
The three major insect pest of apple orchard, oriental fruit moth, peach fruit moth, apple leafminer was occurred 2~3 days more early in the past 20 years. Apple leafminer was major pest in early and middle 1990^th, and decreased gradually to nowadays. Peach fruit moth was increasing from late 1990 to nowdays, and oriental fruit moth was increasing in the middle of 2000^th. After 2010 year, apple leafminer was increasing in all of South Korea, so we think that the amount of occurrence of the three insect pest of apple orchard is independent of global warming.
It seems that the occurrence of spider mite, apple mite, spirea aphid in apple orchard was not related in global warming but related in the control method of apple orchard or pesticide usage. We have made a comparative study the occurrence of cruciferus vegetable disease in 1990 and 2010^th . Hot temperature disease, bacterial soft rot, black rot etc were increased, but brittle root rot, crown gall etc were decreased in relatively. It seems that the main reason of those tendency was changed agricultural environment due to global warming.
Looking at the bacterial soft rot occurrence in Daegwallyeong, it was increasing from 1990^th, and R² of the relationship of disease occurrence and temperature was 0.57. it show me that soft rot occurrence and temperature was very closely related.
At the alpine agriculture, the bacterial soft rot occurrence from 15℃ that is the mean temperature, and if the mean temperature is around 21℃, we guess that the disease is the best outspread at that temperature.
We want to predict the occurrence of bacterial soft rot in Daegwallyeong area, so we profit RCP8.5 at 2001 ground year. In the 2020^th, the initial occurrence time of bacterial soft rot is late June, and increase till early August. In 2050^th and 2100th, the disease occurred at late June, and peak time is at early July, and decrease till middle July. But at late July and early August, we can find out that the disease increase reversely again. In case of chinese cabbage downy mildew, it occurred in early July(7.1~7.7). But we can predict that disease will not be different at nowadays in 2020^th, but in 2050^th and 2090^th, we can predict that the initial occurrence day of that disease will be more early about 8 days.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제출문 ... 2
• 요약문 ... 3
• SUMMARY ... 6
• 목차 ... 8
• 제1장 서론 ... 9
• 제2장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 12
• 국외 ... 12
• 국내 ... 13
• 제3장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 16
• 제1절 지구온난화에 따른 과수해충의 발생예측 및 적응대책 연구 ... 16
• 제2절 지구온난화에 따른 벼 해충의 발생 예측 및 적응 대책 연구 ... 28
• 제3절 온난화에 따른 배추과 채소 진균병 및 세균병의 발생 생태 및 영향평가 ... 42
• 제4절 온난화에 따른 작물 바이러스병의 발생생태 및 영향평가 ... 53
• 제4장 연구개발목표 달성도 및 대외기여도 ... 58
• 제1절 목표대비 달성도 ... 58
• 제2절 정량적 성과(논문게재, 특허출원, 기타)를 기술 ... 58
• 제5장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 59
• □ 논문게재(SCI) 3건 ... 59
• □ 논문게재(비SCI) 3건 ... 60
• 제6장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 60
• 제7장 기타 중요 변동사항 ... 60
• 제8장 국가과학기술종합정보시스템에 등록한 연구장비 현황 ... 60
• 제9장 참고문헌 ... 60