초록 ▼

기후변화에 의한 수문 영향분석과 전망 연구단에서는 단위과제별로 연구개발 한 해당 기술을 적용유역인 한반도 4대강 유역(한강, 낙동강, 금강，영산ㆍ섬진강 유역)에 시범적용 하였다. 그 결과 한반도 4대강 유역에 대한 장기, 중단기 기후변화 시나리오, 확률강우량, 가뭄지수, 물부족 전망 결과를 도출하였다. 이를 통해 기후변화에 따른 표준 수문ㆍ기상 시나리오를 생산하였고, 미래 수자원의 변화를 정량적으로 전망하였으며, 기후변화에 따른 기상/수문의 영향을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 이와 더불어 홍수, 가듬 등의 재해에 의해 발생하는 재해피해액

기후변화에 의한 수문 영향분석과 전망 연구단에서는 단위과제별로 연구개발 한 해당 기술을 적용유역인 한반도 4대강 유역(한강, 낙동강, 금강，영산ㆍ섬진강 유역)에 시범적용 하였다. 그 결과 한반도 4대강 유역에 대한 장기, 중단기 기후변화 시나리오, 확률강우량, 가뭄지수, 물부족 전망 결과를 도출하였다. 이를 통해 기후변화에 따른 표준 수문ㆍ기상 시나리오를 생산하였고, 미래 수자원의 변화를 정량적으로 전망하였으며, 기후변화에 따른 기상/수문의 영향을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 이와 더불어 홍수, 가듬 등의 재해에 의해 발생하는 재해피해액을 기후변화에 따른 영향을 고려하여 산정하였으며, 기후변화에 따른 상황적 변화를 고려하여 법ㆍ계도 개선안을 제안하였다.
또한 위와 같은 전망 결과와 과거 수문/기상 관측자료를 모아 적용 및 분석을 할 수 있는 Warehouse를 구축하였으며, 상세화기법, 한국형 수문모형 관련 소프트웨어를 각각 출시하였다.

Abstract ▼

IV. Results
ㅇ Overall Results
- Application of research findings: Korean peninsula
- Establish and operate a research team Database Storage system
- Launch a research team software
- Key technology for each unit task
ㅇ Unit Project 1-1-1: Standardization and Projection of Long-term

IV. Results
ㅇ Overall Results
- Application of research findings: Korean peninsula
- Establish and operate a research team Database Storage system
- Launch a research team software
- Key technology for each unit task
ㅇ Unit Project 1-1-1: Standardization and Projection of Long-term Hydrologic Scenarios According to Climate Change
- Standardisation of future climate and hydrologic scenarios for Korea
- Production of hydrologic variables for projections of future hydrologic performance and standardized climate scenarios
- Assessment of imcertainties in fature dimate and hydrologic scenarios
ㅇ Unit Project 1-1-2: Medium-term Hydrologic Projections According to Climate Change
- Quantificati on of medium-term hydrologic projections for each station, water shed, and hydrologic factor by trend analysis
- Quantificati on of medium-tenn hydrologic projections for each station, watershed, and hydrologic factors by elasticity analysis
- Medium-term projections based on hydrologic data by non-scenario approach using trend analysis and elasticity analysis
ㅇ Unit Project 1-1-3: Spanal and Temporal Downscaling of Watershed Unit
- Development of the spatial and temporal downscaling technique (ARDAS) based on an artincial neuron network
- Generation of 1 km high resolution precipitation grid by the downscaling technique based on the Random Cascade model
- Development of ARDAS software package downscaling spatially and temporally regardinig climate ctiange scenarios
ㅇ Unit Project 1-2-1 Development of Extreme Flood Projection Technique
- Development of the hourly design rainfall estimation technique from daily rainfall data by standardized climate and hydrologic scenarios
- Determmatiorii of design rainfall for regions without GCMs simulated data
- Development of extreme flood projections algorithm according to climate change
- Projections of design rainfall and extreme flood in Korea based on IPCC AE4 scenarios
ㅇ Unit Project 1-2-2: Water Resources Outlook Considering Extreme Drought
- Selection of the optimum drought index (SPI) for dimate change assessment
- Analysis on extreme drought frequency and severity using a drought spell
- Projections of extreme drought and its impacts on water resources in Korea
ㅇ Unit Project 1-2-3: Non station ary Hydrologic Model Inteipretatiorii Considering Climate Change
- Development of mnstatioiiary hydrologic model for estimation of extreme precipitati on considering climate change
- Estimation of design rainfall considering mnstationarity of hydrologic statistics
- Comparison of precipitation projections between the observed extreme values and the projected future extreme values
ㅇ Unit Project 2-1-1: Evaluation of Korean Hydrologic Process According to Climate Change
- Development of Korean hydrologic process modules
- Integration of developed modules with existing techniques
- Application of the newly developed hydrologic process model to the Korean pemnsula
ㅇ Unit Project 2-1-2: Water Balance Projection According to Climate Change
- Improveraent of the existing water balance methodology and development of the technique for water balance projections according to climate changes
- Application of the improved methodology for water balance projections to the Korean perdusula
- Suggestion of a technique to select standardized climate scenarios for the Korean perdusula
- Operation of the Database Storage system that has taken the conmcticm and compatibility of each unit task into account
ㅇ Unit Project 2-1-3: Quantificatiorii of Hydrologic Projection Uncertainty According to Climate change
- Development of the optimal combimng technique for projections uncertainty
- Quantification of hydrologic projections uncertainty using statistical distributions
- Decomposition of hydrological projectìon uncertainty usinig the ddta method
- Analysis on imcertainties of hydrological projection considering dimate change in Korea using the optimal combming technique and quantification method
ㅇ Unit Project 2-2-1: Hydrologic Variation Impact Assessment and Structare Impact Analysis According to Climate change
- Review of the status of existing hydraulic structures
- Estimatiorii of the stability on hydraulic structoes by modelling and deductirig fragility carves factor
- Risk analysis on hydraulic structures considearing climate change by the FEM program
ㅇ Unit Project 2-2-2: Water Policy and Legislation for Responding to Climate Change
- Analysis on the status of current researches in water management and improvement of water management laws for climate chaiige adaptation
- Suggestion on water legal system improvement and guidelines for legislation improvement in climate change adaptation
- Development of the road map of national water management strategies for climate change adaptation
ㅇ Unit Project 2-2-3: Socioeconomic Impact Assessment of Water Management According to Climate Change
- Estimating flood damage costs caused by climate change by analysing correlation between rainfall events and damages
- Estimating drought damage costs caused by climate change by the CGE (Computable General Еquilibrium) model