□ 연구의 필요성 ○ 3차년도 조사는 미래연구와 정책연구의 접점 발견에 집중 - 정책은 중·장기적으로 사회에 영향을 미쳐 미래 예측 과정이 꼭 필요 - 현안 해결의 단기 정책과 달리 중장기 정책...
1. 서론
□ 연구의 필요성 ○ 3차년도 조사는 미래연구와 정책연구의 접점 발견에 집중 - 정책은 중·장기적으로 사회에 영향을 미쳐 미래 예측 과정이 꼭 필요 - 현안 해결의 단기 정책과 달리 중장기 정책은 지향할 공공가치를 고려 - 한국인의 선호미래를 측정하고 이 미래를 이끌어갈 공공가치를 도출 ※ 정책은 사회공공가치를 실현하는 총체적 활동(유민봉, 2012) ※ 1, 2차 조사에선 한국인의 선호미래와 미래인식 측정에 중점 ○ 과학적인 미래 이슈 발굴 과정 마련 - 1, 2, 3차년도 설문 응답 중 미래에 관한 서술을 모두 모아 토픽모델링 분석, 상승 또는 하강 패턴을 보이는 토픽을 도출해 이를 미래 이슈로 재해석 - 언론이나 논문 등 2차 자료 분석으로 사회 이슈를 발견하는 기존 연구와 달리 시민들이 직접 쓴 서술은 미래의 걱정, 희망, 불안을 반영 - 더 나은 미래를 위해 풀어야 할 사회 주요 의제를 묻는 설문조사도 병행 ○ 3차년도 선호미래사회 조사는 서울과 5대 광역시 40~50대 대상으로 확대 - 1, 2차에서 조사한 20~34세 대상 선호미래와 40~50대 선호미래 비교 - 탈(脫)성장사회로 대변되는 20~34세 선호미래상이 세대를 넘어 공유할 수 있는 현상인지 확인하고 40~50대가 원하는 미래를 심층 조사 ※ 탈성장사회: 환경보존, 약자보호, 정신적 성장 등 다양한 가치 추구 사회
□ 연구문제 ○ 한국인은 미래를 어떻게 인식하고 있으며, 미래 인식의 차이에 따라 선호하는 공공가치와 우선할 사회적 의제가 어떻게 다른가? ○ 40~50대는 어떤 미래를 선호하고 있으며, 선호하는 미래에 따라 어떤 공공가치를 바람직하다고 믿는가? ○ 미래연구에 참여하면 미래 적응력이 향상되는가? ※ 미래 적응력이 있는 개인은 다양한 변화에 적응하고, 필요한 변화를 일으키며, 그 변화에 대한 책임을 질 수 있다는 믿음을 갖고 있음 ○ 텍스트마이닝 기법으로 미래 이슈를 발굴하고 그 변화를 예측할 수 있는가?
Abstract ▼
This research project aims to assess individuals’ perceptions on the future, social mood, and their adaptability on the future in ...
This research project aims to assess individuals’ perceptions on the future, social mood, and their adaptability on the future in South Korea.
The first study on the preferred images of the future aims to investigate what images of the future in 2035 Koreans have in mind and to address what images of the future should be realized for a better future in South Korea. For this purpose, this study provided 124 Korean participants whose ages ranged from 40 to 59 living in Korea with participatory futures workshops in Korea and evaluated their images of the future. The images that this study offered were four scenarios of the future which contained four different information based on four different beliefs and assumptions on the future respectively. As a result, this study found that the majority of the participants selected an image of social collapse which could bring about a new beginning of a society, as their desirable future. It can be interpreted as an alternative future to the future of continued economic growth that Korea has persistently pursued as a preferred future.
The second study aims to assess social mood on the present and the future. The social mood can be assessed by asking individuals what she/he thinks of the present or the future as positive or negative. If the majority of participants regard the future as negative, the society faces negative mood on the future. For this aim, this study conducted an online survey of 1,000 participants who were selected by the proportion of gender, ages, and geographics in Korea. In order to assess the social mood, this study provided participants with an image set and asked them to select what image represented the future or the present most properly and let them write about why they selected a certain image. This study analyzed what they wrote and found that 39% of the participants regard the future as positive and the present as negative; 45% of the participants regard the future and the present as negative. The latter group is called the alienated.
The third study aims to assess the effectiveness of foresight activities by measuring people’s self-efficacy toward the future. A person with self-efficacy toward the future has a belief that she/he can impact the future. For this assessment, this study conducted a pre-test that loaded 20 questions and a post-test with the same questions in between the futures workshop that participants took part in. This study found that participants improved capabilities that could impact their futures.
Through this project, this research suggests an approach to establish and maintain futures-oriented networks and evaluate their capabilities that forecast alternative futures. Futures-oriented networks refer to the associative networks that represent the interests of not only the current generation but also future generations. Since such networks need to be active for pursuing sustainability of a society, it is critical to shape futures-oriented networks and share them with all of society.
We problematize South Korea’s tendency to pursue only continued-economic growth to the point of chasing extreme economic growth, which negatively impacts Korean society. For example, Korea pursued growth as its top policy priority and thus expanded market competition and the market-driven logic of efficiency to a far-reaching extent, Korea has been divided into two extreme poles, the haves and have-nots. Students and civilians assert that a new Korea should seek balanced and sustained growth. We do not argue that the pursuit of economically continued growth is wrong. Rather, we argue that the only pursuit of it cannot be sustainable and future-oriented.
The first task for us in facilitating futures-oriented networks is to find the way to demonstrate the diversity of the opinions of the members of the society and suggest this in the form of mind map. It would be better to suggest such diversity in the form of an optimal classification system rather than a randomly unfolded format. Such a mind map can figure out how society members differently think about the future, how to categorize the society members based on their perceptions on the future, and how each categorized group thinks about certain issues on the better future. The mind map could provide individuals with information of which ideas are more future-oriented, and what kind of idea partner groups should have to make a healthier future. When the individuals gather for the purpose of creating alternative futures, they can be called futures-oriented networks.
