Abstract ▼

The solar power generation is safe, sustainable, and environmentally clean, so integration of photovoltaic (PV) generation into the power grid has been growing rapidly over the past few years. However, fluctuation of the solar power generation can be a serious problem for the reliable operation of t

The solar power generation is safe, sustainable, and environmentally clean, so integration of photovoltaic (PV) generation into the power grid has been growing rapidly over the past few years. However, fluctuation of the solar power generation can be a serious problem for the reliable operation of the power grid.
With the increasing PV penetration level in the power grid, the fluctuation of PV will cause many new issues, so the solar power forecasting becomes one of the most important challenges for the large integration of renewable energy sources.

In this research project, we develop a mid-term (6 hours) and short-term (1 hour) PV power output forecasting system. Additionally we develop a very short-term (3 minutes) PV power forecasting method. We also develop mid-term and short-term load forecasting methods.

To predict PV power output, we analyse consecutive satellite images for the mid-term and short-term forecasting, and all-sky images for very short-term forecasting. We build a system to collect the satellite images and all-sky images automatically. To analyse the data, we adapt deep learning scheme in this research project. We build a forecasting evaluation system to observe and improve their performance.

As a result of this project, we now have PV forecasting and load forecasting methods for various prediction periods that can be applied for appropriate applications.

(출처 : SUMMARY 11p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1제 출 문 ... 2보고서 초록 ... 3요 약 문 ... 4SUMMARY ... 11CONTENTS ... 12목차 ... 13제 1 장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 14제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 16 제 1 절 국내 기술 및 연구 수준 ... 16 제 2 절 국내외 특허 동향 ... 18제 3 장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 21 제 1 절 PV 출력 예측 기술 개발 ... 21 제 2 절 부하전력량 예측 기술 개발 ... 45 제 3 절 예측평가시스템 구축 ... 58제 4 장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 64제 5 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 66제 6 장 참고문헌 ... 67끝페이지 ... 68