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논문 상세정보

해외 경제충격의 국내 IT제품 수출 파급효과 분석

The Effect of Global Macroeconomic Shocks on Korea’s IT Exports

e-비즈니스연구 v.10 no.2 , 2009년, pp.139 - 162   http://dx.doi.org/10.15719/geba.10.2.200906.139
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초록

This paper is to analyze how global macroeconomic shocks like foreign exchange rate affect Korea's IT exports. To analyze the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on Korea's IT product exports, we looked into the relationship among global economic variables, First of all, a global supply shock from greater productivity positively affects production worldwide, causing a decline in exchange rate (the won against foreign currencies) and product prices (against Korean products). The global demand shock resulting from the preference to foreign products boosts the value of foreign currencies (i.e. depreciation of the won), leading to a price increase worldwide. The nominal shock, also, is proved to cause inflation around the globe. Finally, we looked at how overseas macroeconomic factors will affect Korean exports of IT products. Theoretically, in the case of a supply shock, an increase in Korean exports should depend on whether positive effects from income growth in target overseas markets surpass negative effects from the won appreciation and lower price competitiveness. In case of a demand shock, exports of Korean IT products should expand when the won depreciation boosts price competitiveness. We also believe that, if inflation rises abroad, exports of Korean IT products would increase on higher price competitiveness. The empirical analysis found that exports of IT products showed positive relations with the supply, demand, and nominal shocks. On the other hand, individual IT product exports displayed different relations with those shocks. In particular, the relation with the demand shock varies significantly, depending on the difference in magnitude between 1) negative effects from declining demand for domestic products and 2) positive effects from favorable exchange rate change and the price competitive advantage. Based upon the variance decomposition, we found that global supply shocks have greater effects on the Korean IT exports than the exchange rate shocks.

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