Typhoons generated in North West Pacific have been inflicted numerous properties and people in East Asia. An approximately 26.1 typhoons have occurred in North West Pacific and the 3.1 typhoons directly or indirectly affected Korea every year. While the Typhoons were penetrating through Korean penin...
Typhoons generated in North West Pacific have been inflicted numerous properties and people in East Asia. An approximately 26.1 typhoons have occurred in North West Pacific and the 3.1 typhoons directly or indirectly affected Korea every year. While the Typhoons were penetrating through Korean peninsula, the typical Typhoon-induced damages have been arise from strong winds rather than heavy precipitation. In particularly, typhoons occurred in the early of 2000s (i.e. 0012 PRAPIROON, 0215 RUSA, 0314 MAEMI, 0711 NARI, and 1215 BOLAVEN) have recorded daily maximum instantaneous wind speed ranks 5. Three typhoons(0215 RUSA, 0314 MAEMI, and 1214 TEMBIN&1215 BOLAVEN) have caused damaged on properties as well. The typhoon-induced strong wind had led to the damages such as torn and distorted outer walls, building ceilings, and frame of greenhouses. In order to mitigate the damages from the typhoon induced wind, an estimation of extreme wind speed is essential.
To estimate the extreme wind speeds in typhoon-prone regions, a Monte Carlo Simulation has been widely used. This simulation includes statistical models for climatological characteristics of typhoon or physical models consisting mainly of genesis model, intensity model, tracking model and windfield model. This Study proposes a realistic statistical model of typhoons around Korean peninsula. Considering the effects of climatological factors on typhoon genesis by ERA-interim, GPIs (genesis potential index) are adopted to model the genesis based on the correlations between GPIs and past genesis. Intensity of typhoons is modelled mainly by SST(Sea Surface Temperature) and OOR(Oceanic Occupation Ratio), with are corresponding to the dependency of typhoon intensity on sea surface and land cover respectively. The tracks of typhoons are dynamically described by using AR(1) model. Once climatological of typhoons are selected through Monte Carlo simulation, the wind field is finally estimated by employing modified Batts’ model suggested by Lee et al.(2007).
We estimate the future extreme wind speed as well as present extreme wind speed. To estimate the future extreme wind speed, the GCM(Global Circulation Models) of CMIP5(RCP 8.5 scenarios) are used. However, each GCM models, i.e. INM-CM4, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, and GFDL-CM3, resulted in a variety of distributions on variables. This study conducted ensemble method, REA(Reliability Ensemble Averaging) method, to obtain integrated climatical factors. By considering the effect of the climate change, this study estimated the future typhoon genesis and future typhoon intensity.
Lastly, we developed the Monte Carlo Simulation method based on Genesis, Intensity, Tracks and Wind-field models to estimate extreme wind speed in Typhoons which is penetrating Korean peninsula in the future. The 100-year return period wind speed of 2080~2099 JJAS(June-July-August-September)period concluded higher value, average of approximately 2.8m/s, more than wind speed of 1986~2005 JJAS period. Comparing the estimated wind speed to the other research results and design code wind speed, this study resulted lower value than bridge design code wind speed while it higher value than the other research results. It can be expected to bring more reasonable and economically effective maximum wind speed for building designs.
Typhoons generated in North West Pacific have been inflicted numerous properties and people in East Asia. An approximately 26.1 typhoons have occurred in North West Pacific and the 3.1 typhoons directly or indirectly affected Korea every year. While the Typhoons were penetrating through Korean peninsula, the typical Typhoon-induced damages have been arise from strong winds rather than heavy precipitation. In particularly, typhoons occurred in the early of 2000s (i.e. 0012 PRAPIROON, 0215 RUSA, 0314 MAEMI, 0711 NARI, and 1215 BOLAVEN) have recorded daily maximum instantaneous wind speed ranks 5. Three typhoons(0215 RUSA, 0314 MAEMI, and 1214 TEMBIN&1215 BOLAVEN) have caused damaged on properties as well. The typhoon-induced strong wind had led to the damages such as torn and distorted outer walls, building ceilings, and frame of greenhouses. In order to mitigate the damages from the typhoon induced wind, an estimation of extreme wind speed is essential.
To estimate the extreme wind speeds in typhoon-prone regions, a Monte Carlo Simulation has been widely used. This simulation includes statistical models for climatological characteristics of typhoon or physical models consisting mainly of genesis model, intensity model, tracking model and windfield model. This Study proposes a realistic statistical model of typhoons around Korean peninsula. Considering the effects of climatological factors on typhoon genesis by ERA-interim, GPIs (genesis potential index) are adopted to model the genesis based on the correlations between GPIs and past genesis. Intensity of typhoons is modelled mainly by SST(Sea Surface Temperature) and OOR(Oceanic Occupation Ratio), with are corresponding to the dependency of typhoon intensity on sea surface and land cover respectively. The tracks of typhoons are dynamically described by using AR(1) model. Once climatological of typhoons are selected through Monte Carlo simulation, the wind field is finally estimated by employing modified Batts’ model suggested by Lee et al.(2007).
We estimate the future extreme wind speed as well as present extreme wind speed. To estimate the future extreme wind speed, the GCM(Global Circulation Models) of CMIP5(RCP 8.5 scenarios) are used. However, each GCM models, i.e. INM-CM4, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, and GFDL-CM3, resulted in a variety of distributions on variables. This study conducted ensemble method, REA(Reliability Ensemble Averaging) method, to obtain integrated climatical factors. By considering the effect of the climate change, this study estimated the future typhoon genesis and future typhoon intensity.
Lastly, we developed the Monte Carlo Simulation method based on Genesis, Intensity, Tracks and Wind-field models to estimate extreme wind speed in Typhoons which is penetrating Korean peninsula in the future. The 100-year return period wind speed of 2080~2099 JJAS(June-July-August-September)period concluded higher value, average of approximately 2.8m/s, more than wind speed of 1986~2005 JJAS period. Comparing the estimated wind speed to the other research results and design code wind speed, this study resulted lower value than bridge design code wind speed while it higher value than the other research results. It can be expected to bring more reasonable and economically effective maximum wind speed for building designs.
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#Typhoon Typhoon simulation Climate change Wind speed
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