RTI 경보모델을 이용한 강원도 인제지역의 산사태 가능성 및 발생시간 분석 사례 연구 A Case Study on Analysis of Landslide Potential and Triggering Time at Inje Area using a RTI Warning Model원문보기
이 연구는 집중호우시 산사태의 발생가능성과 발생시간을 사전에 예측하기 위한 노력의 일환으로 기존에 개발된 RTI 경보모델을 우리나라에 적용 분석한 사례이다. RTI(Rainfall TriggeringIndex)는 강우강도(I) 유효 누적강우량($R_t$)의 곱으로 정의되는 것으로서, 강우기간 동안 특정 시간(t)에서 산사태가 발생할 가능성을 평가하는데 사용된다. RTI의 상부임계값($RTI_{UC}$)과 하부임계값($RTI_{LC}$) 과거 산사태 발생시 강우자료 분석을 통해 각 지역별로 설정할 수 있으며, 강우강도가 상부임계값을 초과할 때 실제 산사태가 발생하는 것으로 이해할 수 있다. 이러한 분석은 궁극적으로 향후 집중호우가 내릴 경우 특정지역의 산사태 발생가능성은 물론 산사태 발생시기를 예상할 수 있으며, 이를 토대로 사전에 산사태 발생경보를 발령하는데 중요한 근거로 활용될 수 있다. 이와 같은 이론을 우리나라에 적용하기 위해 2006년 7월 13일부터 7월 19일까지 강원도 인제군 일대에 내린 강우자료와 산사태 발생과의 관계를 분석한 결과, 실제 산사태가 발생한 7월16일 오전 11시경을 기준으로 23시간, 11시간, 9시간 전에 강우강도가 RTI의 상부임계값을 초과하였다. 이를 토대로 이와 같은 세 차례에 걸친 산사태 경보의 발령이 필요하였음을 알 수 있었다.
이 연구는 집중호우시 산사태의 발생가능성과 발생시간을 사전에 예측하기 위한 노력의 일환으로 기존에 개발된 RTI 경보모델을 우리나라에 적용 분석한 사례이다. RTI(Rainfall Triggering Index)는 강우강도(I) 유효 누적강우량($R_t$)의 곱으로 정의되는 것으로서, 강우기간 동안 특정 시간(t)에서 산사태가 발생할 가능성을 평가하는데 사용된다. RTI의 상부임계값($RTI_{UC}$)과 하부임계값($RTI_{LC}$) 과거 산사태 발생시 강우자료 분석을 통해 각 지역별로 설정할 수 있으며, 강우강도가 상부임계값을 초과할 때 실제 산사태가 발생하는 것으로 이해할 수 있다. 이러한 분석은 궁극적으로 향후 집중호우가 내릴 경우 특정지역의 산사태 발생가능성은 물론 산사태 발생시기를 예상할 수 있으며, 이를 토대로 사전에 산사태 발생경보를 발령하는데 중요한 근거로 활용될 수 있다. 이와 같은 이론을 우리나라에 적용하기 위해 2006년 7월 13일부터 7월 19일까지 강원도 인제군 일대에 내린 강우자료와 산사태 발생과의 관계를 분석한 결과, 실제 산사태가 발생한 7월16일 오전 11시경을 기준으로 23시간, 11시간, 9시간 전에 강우강도가 RTI의 상부임계값을 초과하였다. 이를 토대로 이와 같은 세 차례에 걸친 산사태 경보의 발령이 필요하였음을 알 수 있었다.
This study is a case study for application of the RTI warning model to Korea which was previously developed to predict landslide potential and occurrence time during a rainfall event. The rainfall triggering index (RTI) is defined as the product of the rainfall intensity I (mm/hr) and the effective ...
This study is a case study for application of the RTI warning model to Korea which was previously developed to predict landslide potential and occurrence time during a rainfall event. The rainfall triggering index (RTI) is defined as the product of the rainfall intensity I (mm/hr) and the effective accumulated rainfall $R_t$ (mm). This index is used to evaluate the landslide and debris-flow occurrence potential at time t during a rainfall event. The upper critical value ($RTI_{UC}$) of RTI and the lower critical value ($RTI_{LC}$) of RTI can be determined by historical rainfall data of a certain area. When the rainfall intensity exceeds the upper critical value, there are high potential to occur land-slides. The analysis result can predict landslide occurrence time of an area during a rainfall event as well as land-slide potential. The result can also be used as an important data to issue early-warning of landslides. In order to apply the RTI warning model to Korea this study analyzed rainfall data and landslides data in Inje county, Gangwon province, Korea from July 13 to July 19, 2006. According to the analysis result, the rainfall intensity exceeded the upper critical value 23 hours ago, 11 hours ago, and 9 hours ago from 11:00 in the morning, July 16. Therefore, landslide warnings would be issued three times for people evacuation for avoiding or reducing hurts and dam-ages from landslides in mountainous areas of Inje.
This study is a case study for application of the RTI warning model to Korea which was previously developed to predict landslide potential and occurrence time during a rainfall event. The rainfall triggering index (RTI) is defined as the product of the rainfall intensity I (mm/hr) and the effective accumulated rainfall $R_t$ (mm). This index is used to evaluate the landslide and debris-flow occurrence potential at time t during a rainfall event. The upper critical value ($RTI_{UC}$) of RTI and the lower critical value ($RTI_{LC}$) of RTI can be determined by historical rainfall data of a certain area. When the rainfall intensity exceeds the upper critical value, there are high potential to occur land-slides. The analysis result can predict landslide occurrence time of an area during a rainfall event as well as land-slide potential. The result can also be used as an important data to issue early-warning of landslides. In order to apply the RTI warning model to Korea this study analyzed rainfall data and landslides data in Inje county, Gangwon province, Korea from July 13 to July 19, 2006. According to the analysis result, the rainfall intensity exceeded the upper critical value 23 hours ago, 11 hours ago, and 9 hours ago from 11:00 in the morning, July 16. Therefore, landslide warnings would be issued three times for people evacuation for avoiding or reducing hurts and dam-ages from landslides in mountainous areas of Inje.
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문제 정의
This study tried to predict potential and triggering time of landslides based on analysis of rainfall intensity. In order to predict the triggering time, this study used the Rainall-Tiiggering-Index (RIT) warning model during a rainfall event between July 13 and 19, 2006 at Inje, Korea.
This study tried to predict potential and triggering time of landslides based on analysis of rainfell intensity at the aspect of landslide warning. In order to predict the triggering time, this study used the Rainall-Triggering-Index (RTI) warning model which had been proposed by Jan et al.
제안 방법
The upper and lower critical values of the Rainfell-Triggering Index (RTI) for landslide occurrence potential analysis are needed before one can use the RTI-values to estimate the landslide occurrence potential during a rainfall event. The upper and lower critical values noted as RTIUC and RTIlc, respectively of the Rainfall-Triggering Index (RTI) could be evaluated, according to the historical rainfall events and the debris-flow or landslide occurrence records. Once the upper critical value (RTIUC) and the lower critical value (RTIL(^) are given, the occurrence potential of landslides can be classified into three regions, i.
이론/모형
In order to predict the triggering time, this study used the Rainall-Tiiggering-Index (RIT) warning model during a rainfall event between July 13 and 19, 2006 at Inje, Korea. The analysis result would be applied for deter-mination of appropriate warning times of landslides.
at the aspect of landslide warning. In order to predict the triggering time, this study used the Rainall-Triggering-Index (RTI) warning model which had been proposed by Jan et al. (2004). The RTI warning model is a rainfall-based warning model, and can be used to estimate the occurrence potential of landslides and debris flows.
성능/효과
Among them, 1, 321 people in total, 47 in yearly average, were killed by landslide hazards. The data indicates that landslide is one of the serious natural hazards recording significant percentage of human deaths as much as 22.3% due to natural hazards. The major landslide type occurred on natural terrain in Korea is debris flow that the flow velocity reaches up to 30 m/sec in the maximum (Chae et al.
참고문헌 (4)
Chae, B.-G., Kim, W.-Y., Lee, C.-O., Kim, K.-S., Cho, Y.- C. and Song, Y.-S., 2005, A study on transportation characteristics of debris dependent on geologic condtions, The Journal of Engineering Geology, 15(2), 185-200
Jakob, M. and Hungr, O., 2005, Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena, Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, 739p
Jan, C.-D., Lee, M.-H., Wang, J.-S. and Wang, C.-L., 2004, A rainfall-based debris-flow warning model and its application in Taiwan, Proceedings of 2004 International Conference on Slopeland Disaster Mitigation, 111-119
Park, D., Oh, J.R. and Park, J.H., 2006, Landslide hazards and its mitigation policies in Korea, Proceedings of 2006 Engineering Geology Symposium, 41-49
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