초록

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Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chai...

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

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