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문제 정의
- The purpose of this study was to predict population variation in released foxes in Korea and to determine factors for increasing their survival rate. The results of this study will be used to establish strategies for the initial stage of the current red fox restoration project.
- The study showed that continuous reintroduction or active habitat management is necessary for a successful red fox reintroduction program. The 50-year population growth rate and extinction rate of released foxes in Sobaeksan national park averaged 0.
제안 방법
- A correlation analysis of two types of variables was performed to assess minimum management of roadkill and poaching(Table 6). According to the stochastic rate analysis, when roadkill and poaching were increased to 2%, depending on the standard baseline, a negative growth rate appeared, and when roadkill increased to 1% compared to the baseline, the stochastic rate was zero.
- In addition, because habitats vary, movement and introduction must occur freely by population dispersal to ensure a long and successful red fox reintroduction program. Based on the results of this study, a detailed prediction of release population size and release period should be established through post-population monitoring.
- Table 5. Results of sensitivity analysis conducted for catastrophic factors(road kill and poaching /illegal hunting tool) in Sobaeksan national park, Korea, using population viability analysis. The baseline was set by 15% road kill and 10% poaching.
- The range of variability in management strength was calculated by a ±3% standard value, corresponding to the minimum or maximum, and minimum management requirements for policymaking and project establishment were estimated through a correlation analysis of the management strength of roadkill and poaching.
- The purpose of this study was to predict population variation in released foxes in Korea and to determine factors for increasing their survival rate. The results of this study will be used to establish strategies for the initial stage of the current red fox restoration project.
대상 데이터
- However, for this study of red fox extinction in Korea, no established parameters were available. The restoration project began with the reintroduction of red foxes by the Ministry of Environment and Korea national park Service in 2012. Because of the rapidly changing environment in Korea, development of a long-term master project for sustainable restoration of the red fox was based on short-term modeling.
- The study was conducted in Sobaeksan national park (~36° 50' to 37° 4' N, ~128° 21' to 128° 43' E) located between Young-ju City, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Dan-yang, Chungchungbuk-do(Figure 1).
이론/모형
- The VORTEX(Lacy, 1993, version 9.99) simulation software package was used for the PVA of the fox population in this study. And VORTEX has been used to study random variables influencing the relationships between the life history of target species and their populations and can test the sensitivity of the population by changing statistical and habitat variables(Cheong et al.
성능/효과
- An extinction probability of approximately 90% occurred at a maximum of 13% in the poaching analysis. As a result, if the mortality rate from roadkill and poaching was increased to 3%, which is higher than the baseline, the extinction rate 50 years later was increased to 90%. However, if the mortality rate was decreased to 3%, which is lower than the baseline, the extinction rate was about 30%(Stoc-r; y=-1.
- However, if two pairs of red foxes were reintroduced at the site more than twice every 5 years from the 17th year, the year that first showed a decrease, the population growth rate was 0.004±0.098, and the maximum number of animals and remaining population size after 50 years were 157 and 124, respectively(Table 2 and Figure 2).
- 001) according to the numbers of red foxes released yearly (Table 3). If fewer than 6 red foxes were released annually, the population growth rate was zero or negative, the extinction probability after 50 years would be higher than 80%, and the remaining population size was estimated at fewer than 30 individuals. However, if 14 animals were released annually, the growth rate was 0.
- Mortality by artificial catastrophic factors including roadkill and poaching to test sensitivity was set to 15% and 10%, respectively, and population size was expected to vary according to a 1% increase or decrease from the baseline. The range of variability in management strength was calculated by a ±3% standard value, corresponding to the minimum or maximum, and minimum management requirements for policymaking and project establishment were estimated through a correlation analysis of the management strength of roadkill and poaching.
- The 50-year population growth rate and extinction rate of released foxes in Sobaeksan national park averaged 0.018±0.204 and 0.354, respectively, and the population size was gradually decreased at the 17th year after the first release.
- The result of the analysis of simulated population growth rate for 100 years with the previous set value was -0.014±0.217 which has a high probability of extinction(0.981), and the remaining population size for 100 years would be 20.42(Table 2).
- The result of the sensitivity test showed that management for artificial threatening factors was closely related to the red fox reintroduction program and requires intensive oversight. With a 3% decrease in mortality by roadkill, the population growth rate was increased from 0.
- 01) depending on management strength(Table 5). The results of estimated roadkill mortality by a 1% increase and decrease from the baseline showed that when 12% mortality was decreased to 3%, the population growth rate was increased from 0.018 to 0.073(Figure 5), and the extinction rate was reduced from 0.0338 to 0.029. When a roadkill mortality of 18% was increased to 3%, the growth rate was negative, and the extinction rate was more than 90%(Stoc-r; y=-1.
- The results of the analysis showed a significant difference in the PVA modeling value between roadkill(F=15.12, p<0.001) and poaching(F=12.41, p<0.01) depending on management strength(Table 5).
- The results of this study show that for species reintroduction and restoration, threatening factors within the habitat should be minimized, and the suitability of the release sites should be assessed before the release. Realistic monitoring is needed to verify the suitability of PVA(Cheong et al.
- 80, respectively, and if mortality by poaching was increased to 3%, about a 90% extinction probability occurred. These results show that when the occurrence probabilities of two catastrophes were decreased to 3% from a standard value, the extinction probability decreased to 30% and that when the occurrence probabilities were increased to 3%, the extinction probability for 50 years reached 90%.
- The result of the sensitivity test showed that management for artificial threatening factors was closely related to the red fox reintroduction program and requires intensive oversight. With a 3% decrease in mortality by roadkill, the population growth rate was increased from 0.018 to 0.073, and the extinction probability was also decreased, whereas with a 3% increase, population growth rate was negative, and the extinction rate was more than 90%. When mortality by poaching was decreased to 3%, the population growth rate and remaining population increased from 0.
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