[논문]Risk Ranking for Tunnelling Construction Projects in Malaysia

Ghazali, F.E. Mohamed; Wong, H.C.

doi:10.6106/jcepm.2014.4.1.029

Risk Ranking for Tunnelling Construction Projects in Malaysia 원문보기

Journal of construction engineering and project management, v.4 no.1, 2014년, pp.29 - 36

Ghazali, F.E. Mohamed (School of Civil, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Engineering Campus)) , Wong, H.C. (School of Civil, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Engineering Campus))

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Tunnelling has become a preferred method of construction for road and highway projects in countries with a lot of hilly slope geological conditions such as found in Malaysia. However the construction works of a tunnelling project are usually complicated and costly, which consequently impose great risks to the parties involved. This paper identifies the key significant risks and sub-risks for tunnelling construction projects in Malaysia through a case study. Interview has been used as the solitary means to determine the significant risks from contractor's eleven key project personnel who were directly involved in the tunnelling construction such as consultant, construction manager and tunnel engineers. The importance of the risks identified is then prioritised and ranked via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)'s pairwise comparison approach to determine their criticality towards a successful delivery of project. As a result, three key risks have been identified as significant for the tunnelling case study project, namely health and safety, cost overrun in construction and time overrun in construction. Two sub-risks each of the latter categories, which are cost underestimation and unforeseen events (cost overrun in construction) as well as plant and machinery failure and delay in material delivery (time overrun in construction), have occupied the top five overall risk ranking.

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문제 정의

The pairwise comparison in AHP combines both qualitative judgments and quantitative measures under a single analysis [19]. Thus the AHP is suitable to transform the qualitative judgment from the key personnel involved in the questionnaire interviews into a quantitative risk ranking, which is the key aim of this research study.
Thus, this paper identifies the key significant risks for tunnelling construction projects in Malaysia through a case study. The significant risks identified are then prioritised and ranked via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)‟s pairwise comparison, which analyses the criticality and importance of each risk towards a successful delivery of the tunnelling case study project involved.

제안 방법

All the information generated from the questionnaire interviews are then analysed through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)‟s pairwise comparison whereby data is quantified in a matrix system in order to determine their significance/importance for a successful delivery of the case study project. The pairwise comparison in AHP combines both qualitative judgments and quantitative measures under a single analysis [19].
Owing to data confidentiality, only key significant risks and sub-risks from a tunnelling construction project, the Berapit Tunnel, could be identified and analysed as a case study. Seven key risk categories and twenty-four subrisks have been identified via a series of interviews with eleven key project personnel from the contractor‟s company.
Amongst them include health and safety, force majeure and design risk. The questionnaire is developed in a semi-structured form to allow respondents some extent of flexibility in indicating other possible occurring risks based on their project experiences.
The result of the interviews illustrates that the highly likely risks occurrence that could lead to cost overrun in construction in the case study project are as follow: underestimate cost, unforeseen event occurrence, design variation, economic crisis, economic inflation and exchange rate fluctuation.

대상 데이터

62 million cubic metres of granular material. The dam, 400m wide at the base, 800m long and 110m high, is composed of 1.2 million cubic metres of clay core and 6.4 million cubic metres of granite. During low flow period, water from the dam‟s reservoir will be drawn for release into the river to ensure sufficient raw water supply for the water intakes downstream.

이론/모형

Seven key risk categories and twenty-four subrisks have been identified via a series of interviews with eleven key project personnel from the contractor‟s company. The priority importance of all risk categories and sub-risk within each risk category has been evaluated through AHP pairwise comparison method, which produces risk ranking.

성능/효과

Seven key risks have been identified, and are presented as the sub-headings of this section while the significance/importance of their sub-risks are analysed and discussed within each specific heading. The seven key risks identified in the case study project are health and safety, cost overrun in construction, time overrun in construction, design risk, contractual risk, geological risk and force majeure.

후속연구

In managing a project, typically, more attention is focused on risks with greater priorities and importance whereas the less important ones are either neglected or ignored. Therefore the findings from this paper would contribute significantly towards a successful project delivery of the case study project and also effective risk management for future tunnelling construction projects in Malaysia.

참고문헌 (19)

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상세보기
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Risk Ranking for Tunnelling Construction Projects in Malaysia 원문보기

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Risk Ranking for Tunnelling Construction Projects in Malaysia 원문보기

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