[논문]보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델

진홍성; 오춘영; 최일수; 황두진; 윤양호; 한동엽

doi:10.7841/ksbbj.2014.29.5.336

보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델
A Simple Temperature Dependent Model to Predict the Bloom of Aurelia Aurita Polyps 원문보기

KSBB Journal, v.29 no.5, 2014년, pp.336 - 342

진홍성 (전남대학교 수학과) , 오춘영 (전남대학교 수학교육과) , 최일수 (전남대학교 통계학과) , 황두진 (전남대학교 해양생산관리학과) , 윤양호 (전남대학교 환경해양학과) , 한동엽 (전남대학교 해양토목공학과)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Asexual benthic polyp reproduction plays a major role in the jellyfish bloom. Recent studies found that temperature is the most important factor to regulate the budding rate of the polyps. We established a simple dynamic model to count the number of polyps depending on the variation of temperature with two data sets from different places. The population of polyps was counted through the budding rate and the number of budding times by Fibonacci sequence. It is assumed that the budding rate depends on the temperature only. The budding rate of the asexual reproduction shows very sensitive to the distribution of the seawater temperature. The model was tested to the temperature data of Ansan located in the west sea of Korea. The results indicate that this model can be useful to predict the blooms of Aurelia aurita polyps, which may have considerable influence on the bloom of medusa. The shape of temperature curve plays a key role in the predicting the bloom of Aurelia aurita polyps.

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문제 정의

aurita polyps is getting higher. This paper is helpful to predict the possibility of jellyfish bloom in near future such as next year if we can have temperature dependent reference budding rate from the laboratory data.

제안 방법

In summary, in this paper we would like to see the influence of temperature variation to the bloom of jellyfish in the qualitative point of view by calculating the number of benthic polyps of A. aurita through modeling. Increasing the sea water temperature does not mean the increasing the number of polyps.
The total number of budding times, n(T), was calculated by integrating the budding rate function r(T). The integration was performed for monthly budding rate using the data for 90 days. Thus, the integration was divided by 3 to get the total number of budding times.
[16]. This experiment was conducted under three temperatures 20℃, 25℃, and 30℃, resulting in budding rates 0.09, 0.03, and 0.01 for one polyp per day, respectively. We assumed that those temperatures are representative for four seasons [21].

이론/모형

This assumption makes the reproduction cycle to resemble the Fibonacci sequence. Thus, this study uses the Fibonacci sequence to represent the reproduction rate for polyps. The Fibonacci sequence is widely used in biology [18-19].

성능/효과

[13]. According to this experiment, after 32 days, the mean increase in population size was 8%, 93%, and 189% for 10℃, 13℃, and 16℃, respectively. The results were rescaled for a 90-day period, approximately one season.

후속연구

Although the result of this study looks satisfactory to predict the polyps’ asexual reproduction in terms of temperature, future research should use a wider range of data on the budding rate r(T) to provide a better understanding of the population dynamics of A.aurita polyps.
Rather the temperature distribution pattern affects more to the population of polyps. Although, further studies and experiments are needed to include other factors in the form of dyna mic equation systems, this model can be used to predict the bloom of the polyps. It is not our goal to calculate the number of polyps reproduced for a year precisely.

참고문헌 (22)

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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
Liu, W., W. Lo, J. E. Purcell, and H. Chang (2009) Effects of temperature and light intensity on asexual reproduction of the scyphozoan, Aurelia aurita (L.) in Taiwan. Hydrobiol. 616: 247-258.

상세보기
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상세보기
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보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델
A Simple Temperature Dependent Model to Predict the Bloom of Aurelia Aurita Polyps 원문보기

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보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델 A Simple Temperature Dependent Model to Predict the Bloom of Aurelia Aurita Polyps 원문보기

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보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델
A Simple Temperature Dependent Model to Predict the Bloom of Aurelia Aurita Polyps 원문보기

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