[논문]국내농협 경영성과 변화와 최고경영자 교체에 대한 분석

이현창; 박성택; 송교직

doi:10.14400/jdc.2017.15.11.175

국내농협 경영성과 변화와 최고경영자 교체에 대한 분석
Analysis of Management Performance Change of Korean Agricultural Co-operatives around CEO turnover 원문보기

디지털융복합연구 = Journal of digital convergence, v.15 no.11, 2017년, pp.175 - 185

이현창 (농협 세종교육원) , 박성택 (충북대학교 경영정보학과) , 송교직 (성균관대학교 글로벌경영학과)

초록
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이 논문은 지역농협의 경영성과 변화가 2015년에 실시된 전국조합장선거 결과에 유의한 영향을 미쳤는지에 대해 알아보려 한다. 2015년 최초로 실시된 전국 조합장 선거 이전의 경영성과 데이터 (2012년에서 2015년까지)와 선거결과를 기반으로 2SLS Probit 회귀분석한 결과에 따르면 2015년 재임 중인 조합장 교체에 미치는 유의한 변수들은 후보자 나이, 전년도의 순이익감소 그리고 유사규모의 자산을 가진 그룹의 평균 ROA등 이었다. 국내농협의 조합원들이 조합장의 나이가 60세 이상인지, 순이익 규모가 전년대비 감소하였는지를 비교하면서, 유사한 자산규모를 가진 그룹의 평균 ROA가 높을수록 교체 가능성을 높이는 것으로 보인다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This paper aims to determine whether the changes in management performance of domestic agricultural cooperatives had an effect on the election results of Korean Agricultural Cooperatives in 2015. Financial performance data (2012-2015) prior to the Nation-wide Cooperatives elections in 2015 were reviewed to determine the impact of the election outcome on the election results. 2SLS Probit regression analysis shows that the significant parameters for incumbent president turnover in the 2015 election were the candidates' age, net profit decrease in 2014, and ROA comparison to similar asset-size group. These results support the conclusion that the union members of KAC consider whether the age of president is over 60, whether the net profits of the cooperatives are worse than the previous year, and compare the results of similar groups' managerial performance (ROA).

주제어

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문제 정의

Model 1 in Table 3 is the 2SLS regression analysis result with a dummy variable that takes a value of “1” if there is a president change and “0” otherwise. The report is a 2SLS regression analysis result of the financial performance and the idiosyncratic characteristics of elected presidents. The independent variables for financial performance are average ROA of the similar asset sized group, and whether net income has deteriorated over the previous year.
This paper is concerned with the change in management performance and the possibility of changing management performance in the form of the cooperative, which was formed by the presidents reshuffle of KAC in 2015. In order to analyze the components of influence on results of the elections in 2015, various variables were checked based on the regional cooperatives’ indigenous characteristics such as net profit change, comparative performance measures, and candidates’ characteristics.
Jenter and Kannan noted whether the Board of Directors can distinguish between the performance of the company with its unique factors and the average outcome of the similar asset size group, such as the performance of the company's peer group[15]. This study endeavored to define whether the comparative differences between average performances of similar assets-size group and ones of the respective Cooperative had affected the KACs election results. The 2SLS probit analysis was utilized in order to eliminate the external factors in this analysis.

가설 설정

Hypothesis 2. Individual attributes, such as educational background and age, will have a significant impact on the possibility of replacing the president of local cooperatives.
Hypothesis 3. The average performance of similar asset sizes-group will have a significant impact on the possibility of replacing the union heads since the asset size reflects the management performance of similar groups in election.
When applying their methodology to the thesis, we regard the leader of cooperatives replacement by the election as enforced turnover, and check whether voters worry about the management performance of the agricultural cooperatives with similar assets or capital scale. We used the average performance of the similar asset-sized group as instrumental variables to derive the CEO's capability to estimate the probability of the cooperatives' president's replacement by using 2-stage least squares (2SLS) regression.

제안 방법

To make more accurate assumptions about what replaces CEOs, it is important to note that when evaluating the CEO, the external impact of the measurement must be filtered out. For the purpose of discovering the cause of the result, we try to analyze the possibility of electoral replacement by separating the unique characteristics of each cooperative and the average characteristics of the each group, which is based on variables such as ROE, ROA, and the net income change of the Agricultural Cooperatives.
In contrast to the existing research, the main contribution of this thesis is the first attempt to conduct an nation-wide analysis of the president's replacement in the KAC by using the idiosyncratic character of each Co-op.
The stark contrast of this thesis to the existing research is the first attempt to conduct an nation-widely analysis of the president's replacement in the KAC by using the idiosyncratic character of each Co-op.
More specifically, management and financial data variables from 2012 to 2015 and individual characteristics variables are utilized. This paper executes 2SLS probit analysis based on the size of assets, classification of local cooperatives into 32 groups, and average financial parameters for each group as instrumental variables. The 2SLS probit analysis was utilized in order to eliminate the external factors in this analysis.
See how variables such as ROE, ROA, and the net income change and academic background of candidates and age of candidates, affect the continuation of the result of the election. This research material was collected by the Financial Statistics Information System and utilized the management performance analysis. Ultimately, we tried to find which factors significantly affected the president's replacement.

대상 데이터

85 million farmers. It is composed of 1,134 local cooperatives as members. The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation and affiliated agencies are comprised of 16 regional headquarters, including 16 regional headquarters and owners of financial and economic projects, and affiliate and agricultural companies such as Farmers Newspaper and Agricultural Cooperatives University, and so on.

데이터처리

We used the average performance of the similar asset-sized group as instrumental variables to derive the CEO's capability to estimate the probability of the cooperatives' president's replacement by using 2-stage least squares (2SLS) regression.

성능/효과

According to the results verified by 2SLS Probit Regression Analysis, significant parameters influencing the 2015 election result are whether “union presidents candidates’ age were over 60” and whether “net profit decreased in 2014 compared to last year's full-year net profit” and whether “the average ROA of similar asset size group is higher than respective cooperative”.
First of all, results showed that ROA did not affect the outcome of the election. On the other hand, the higher the average ROA in a similar asset-sized group in the previous year, the higher the possibility of current president turnover.
They prove that the correlation between Chief Executive replacement and idiosyncratic characteristics of CEO such as the tenure and power of CEO is not significant. In conclusion, they stated that we should be concerned about the fact that the top managers lose their fruits in recession rather than in the boom season, because it is possible to spread the slack of barely escaping the worst performance in the boom season among the top executives, rather than boosting performance in the recession.
Second, the fact that the deterioration of the management performance against previous year indicated a significant impact on the probability of replacing the presidents of local agricultural cooperatives, means that the degradation of the managerial performance was preceded before turnover. According to Denis and Denis, the management performance improved after the board of directors replaced the CEO with poor performance, which means the degradation of the managerial performance was preceded before turnover like our result[26].
According to the results verified by 2SLS Probit Regression Analysis, significant parameters influencing the 2015 election result are whether “union presidents candidates’ age were over 60” and whether “net profit decreased in 2014 compared to last year's full-year net profit” and whether “the average ROA of similar asset size group is higher than respective cooperative”. These results showed that Cooperative members determined the financial performance, such as net profit and ROA, as touchstones by comparing them with ones of the similar group, at the same time checking whether Co-ops presidents are over 60 years old or not. In contrast to the existing research, the main contribution of this thesis is the first attempt to conduct an nation-wide analysis of the president's replacement in the KAC by using the idiosyncratic character of each Co-op.

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