[논문]통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측

김태환; 이기광

doi:10.11627/jkise.2019.42.3.109

통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측
Market Share Forecast Reflecting Competitive Situations in the Telecommunication Service Industry 원문보기

Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering = 한국산업경영시스템학회지, v.42 no.3, 2019년, pp.109 - 115

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Most demand forecasting studies for telecommunication services have focused on estimating market size at the introductory stage of new products or services, or on suggesting improvement methods of forecasting models. Although such studies forecast business growth and market sizes through demand forecasting for new technologies and overall demands in markets, they have not suggested more specific information like relative market share, customers' preferences on technologies or service, and potential sales power. This study focuses on the telecommunication service industry and explores ways to calculate the relative market shares between competitors, considering competitive situations at the introductory stage of a new mobile telecommunication service provider. To reflect the competitive characteristics of the telecommunication markets, suggested is an extended conjoint analysis using service coverage and service switching rates as modification variables. This study is considered to be able to provide strategic implications to businesses offering existing service and ones planning to launch new services. The result of analysis shows that the new service provider has the greatest market share at the competitive situation where the new service covers the whole country, offers about 50% of existing service price, and allows all cellphones except a few while the existing service carrier maintains its price and service and has no response to the new service introduction. This means that the market share of the new service provider soars when it is highly competitive with fast network speed and low price.

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문제 정의

This study tries to predict market share in each competitive situation coming from a new service launch in the mobile telecommunication service market. Conjoint analysis is used to construct optimal service features, decide optimal prices, and predict market shares, where the customer preferences on each attribute of new service is analyzed [13].

제안 방법

A prediction of the size of the overall market could not be done since this study placed major emphasis on compensating for the weak points of previous studies and estimating the market share of an individual service, which would be meaningful data especially to practitioners. If market shares are drawn with market size prediction using diffusion model, more objective and practical data are considered to be given.
Market share values need to be revised to reflect such variables for more objective and practical prediction of market shares. Therefore, this study applies regional coverage rate (G_n) and service switching rate (F) to initial market share (BTL_i) drawn from conjoint analysis for the revised market share.
To overcome these limitations, this study measured preferences of new mobile communication services though conjoint analysis, and drew revised market shares of the services reflecting competitive situations and customers’ intentions to switch.
Regional coverage rate is calculated by service coverage that means the area where physical service is available. To reflect regional coverage rates to market shares by competitive situations with initial market shares of BTL values, this study establishes three different stages along the expansion plan of mobile communication service coverage, introduction (G₁ = 0.692 : the capital region and 6 metropolitan areas), growth (G₂ = 0.956 : 82 cities), and maturity (G₃ = 1.000 : nation-wide) phases.

이론/모형

In the profile design, appropriate profile sets (pseudo products) are chosen by considering main effects of service attributes. This study utilizes a SPSS statistical tool, ORTHOPLAN procedure that can generate the minimum number of pseudo products appropriate for analyzing product attributes. Using orthogonal arrays and statistical methods, ORTHOPLAN procedure offers the same effects on further analyses as selecting all combinations of pseudo products [1, 20].

성능/효과

First, we calculated the initial market shares of new and existing service providers assuming market shares of the two service providers are not dependent on the competitive situation. Then the revised market shares were obtained by considering the oligopoly state of mobile telecommunication service market and expected barriers to entry.
This study adopts the percentages in the conference call system market, which are 80% of respondents mostly preferred and 20% of respondents secondly preferred. That is, the service switching rate (F) is calculated with the assumption that 80% of the respondents who strongly agreed to switch to the new mobile telecommunication service in survey and 20% of the respondents who moderately agreed would actually switch to the new one.

후속연구

Combined with market size, such information can be used as important data to estimate the number of subscribers, revenues, and ARPU. Also, this study added coverage expansion plans of service providers and service switching rates of customers to the estimation to increase practicality and validity, making up for weak points of conjoint analysis.
Consumer respondents express their preferences on the profiles by ordinal scale or else, and the data are used to set up the level of product attributes and to forecast market the response from the market [19]. Utilizing conjoint analysis, this study conjectures market share of 5G mobile telecommunication service market when the service is launched, grasping importance and preferences of service attributes.

참고문헌 (20)

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원문보기 상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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원문보기 상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측
Market Share Forecast Reflecting Competitive Situations in the Telecommunication Service Industry 원문보기

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통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측 Market Share Forecast Reflecting Competitive Situations in the Telecommunication Service Industry 원문보기

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문제 정의

제안 방법

이론/모형

성능/효과

후속연구

참고문헌 (20)

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저자의 다른 논문 :

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통신서비스산업에서 경쟁상황을 반영한 시장점유율 예측
Market Share Forecast Reflecting Competitive Situations in the Telecommunication Service Industry 원문보기

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