[논문]중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석

리 드미트리; 왕웬; 배정환

doi:10.15266/kerea.2020.29.1.023

초록
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중국의 급속한 경제성장은 환경에 커다란 부하를 초래하였고, 이를 통해 대기오염 문제도 심각해졌다. 본 연구는 중국의 대기오염 원인을 경험적으로 분석하였다. 표준오차 패널수정 추정기법(PCSE)을 이용하여 중국의 30개 성을 대상으로 아황산가스 및 질소산화물의 배출요인을 분석하였다. 아황산가스의 경우 일인당 실질소득이 증가할수록 배출 수준이 감소하고, 질소산화물은 일인당 실질소득과 역N자형의 관계에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 소득 이외의 배출 요인으로 우선 전기소비량은 아황산가스나 질소산화물을 증가시키는 요인이었고, 석탄소비량은 아황산가스 배출을 증가시키는 반면에 천연가스 소비량은 아황산가스 배출을 감소시키는 요인으로 나타났다. 한편 에너지 산업에 대한 투자와 폐가스 처리에 대한 투자는 아황산가스 배출을 감소시키는 결정요인이지만 질소산화물 배출에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 디젤 소비량, 트럭 비율 및 차량 수는 질소산화물 배출을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 강수량의 증가도 아황산가스와 질소산화물의 배출을 감소시킨 요인이었다. 끝으로 본 연구의 정책적 시사점과 향후 연구방향을 제시하였다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The rapid economic growth has brought tremendous pressure on the environment and caused severe air pollution in China. This study empirically examines causes of air pollution in China. Panel-corrected standard errors procedure (PCSE) was used to analyze major determinants of increasing or reducing e...

The rapid economic growth has brought tremendous pressure on the environment and caused severe air pollution in China. This study empirically examines causes of air pollution in China. Panel-corrected standard errors procedure (PCSE) was used to analyze major determinants of increasing or reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) in 30 Chinese provinces. The estimation results show that SO2 emission is mitigated as per capita regional GDP increases, but the relation between emission of NOX and per capita regional GDP is found to have an inverse N-shaped curve, which implies that emission of NOX is ultimately expected to decline with economic growth. As for increasing factors of air pollutants, electricity consumption is a significant common source of SO2 and NOX emissions. Moreover, the results show that increment of coal consumption significantly affects emission of SO2 while increase of natural gas consumption reduce emission of SO2. On the other side, investment in energy industry, and investment on treatment of waste gases are determinants of mitigating emissions of SO2, but have no impact on NOX. Consumption of diesel, truck ratio and number of vehicles increase emission of NOX. Meanwhile, higher precipitation rate is a common determinant of mitigating emissions of SO2 and NOX. Policy implications are suggested in the conclusion.

주제어

표/그림 (6)

그림 Annual GDP and NOX Emissions in China from 2006-2016 (unit: tons)
그림 Annual GDP and SO2 Emissions in China from 2000-2016 (unit: tons)
표 Summary of SO₂ and NO_X emissions in China
표 Descriptive statistics
표 The PCSE estimates for SO₂ emissions
표 The PCSE estimates for NO_X emissions

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문제 정의

The objective of this study is to examine which factors affect SO₂ and NOX emissions by using a panel econometric approach on 30 Chinese provinces.
This study tries to find the appropriate determinants of SO₂ and NOX emissions in China.

제안 방법

As discussed earlier, the PCSE procedure was applied to analyze the impact of real per capita GDP and other related variables on environmental pollution in 30 Chinese provinces. Before we apply the PCSE procedure, we used a test of modified Wald statistics to examine a group wise-heteroscedasticity (Greene, 2000) under the null hypothesis of homoscedasticity, and for serial correlation in the idiosyncratic errors (Wooldridge, 2002) with null hypothesis of no first-order autocorrelation. As the test results are shown in Tables 3 and 4, significance of statistics in all tests indicates the rejection of null hypothesis which implies that the data suffer from heteroscedasticity and first-order autocorrelation.
Furthermore, as road transport has considerable impacts on NOX emissions, this study considers the total number of vehicles and track ration, and assumes that both these factors would increase NOX emissions.
This study also employs consumption of energy sources such as electricity, coal, oil, natural gas and diesel. Furthermore, as road transport has considerable impacts on NO_Xemissions, this study considers the total number of vehicles and track ration, and assumes that both these factors would increase NO_Xemissions.
This study explores the relationship between per capita GDP and air pollution (SO₂ and NOX ) by using a PCSE procedure, and identifies other determinants that might have positive or negative impacts on the air pollution in 30 Chinese provinces.
(2013), the distribution of NO_Xemissions between power, industry, and transportation sectors was 28%, 27%, and 25% respectively. Thus, main explanatory variables in this study include electricity consumption and variables that represented transport sector such as number of vehicles, diesel consumption and track ratio. In addition to above mentioned variables, NO_Xemission equation also includes Rain, Energy investment and Treatment variables.

성능/효과

) by using a PCSE procedure, and identifies other determinants that might have positive or negative impacts on the air pollution in 30 Chinese provinces. Estimation results show that per capita GDP has a negative, linear relation with SO₂ emissions, which implies that the increment of per capita GDP leads to reduction of the SO₂ emissions through more stringent environmental regulation and investment on clean technology. However, the estimation results show an inverted-N shaped relationship between per capita GDP and NO_Xemissions.
³⁾ Currently, China makes efforts in substitution of coal with less polluting fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, nuclear, or renewable energy. Furthermore, the estimates for the linear and quadratic terms of the investment in the treatment of waste gas show the inverse U-shaped relation, as the linear and the quadratic terms of the LnTreatment variable are statistically significant at 1% level with positive and negative signs respectively. It implies that low anti-pollution investment is deficient to mitigate the SO₂ emissions, but above a threshold level (about RMB 350 million) of the investment in the treatment of waste gas, that is quite below the mean (above RMB 990 million), the SO₂ emissions begin to decrease.
Notice that in the model specification with the quadratic term for the income variable, the EKC hypothesis is approved, and the NOX emissions increase until the per capita GDP reaches about 26,743 RMB/person, but decrease after that threshold level.
The results indicated that economic development has a significant reduction effect on SO₂ pollution as well as an aggravation effect on PM2.5 pollution, but it was statistically insignificant in NOX emission equation.
, 2019). This study accounts average annual precipitation rate as a weather variable, but the other climate variables such as temperature, wind speed, or direction of wind are not used as they were not significant in explaining variability in the emissions of air pollutants. Lastly, we examine if the investment in the treatment of waste gas and investment in energy industry have been effective in mitigating the air pollution.

후속연구

Finally this paper remains with further research. First of all, this study should be extended to examine if the air pollution in China affects significantly air quality in Korea, and what kind of pollutants are major pollution sources in the transboundary pollution if it does. In addition, we attempted to examine the impact of renewable energy production on mitigation of SO_X and NO_X, but data was not available for Chinese provincial levels.

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중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석
Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Air Pollution in China 원문보기

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중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석 Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Air Pollution in China 원문보기

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중국의 대기오염 배출 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석
Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Air Pollution in China 원문보기

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