[논문]실물옵션법을 이용한 산림 바이오매스 열공급 시설의 투자 분석

안현진; 민경택

doi:10.14578/jkfs.2021.110.3.453

실물옵션법을 이용한 산림 바이오매스 열공급 시설의 투자 분석
Economic Feasibility of Forest Biomass Thermal Energy Facility Using Real Option Approach 원문보기

한국산림과학회지 = Journal of korean society of forest science, v.110 no.3, 2021년, pp.453 - 461

안현진 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) , 민경택 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부)

초록
AI-Helper

기후변화 대응과 탄소중립 실현을 위해 산림 바이오매스의 에너지 이용은 중요한 과제이다. 이 연구의 목적은 목재칩 보일러를 주력으로 사용하는 산림에너지자립마을의 투자 타당성을 분석하고 시설의 지속적 운영을 위해 필요한 적정열 보조금 수준을 산출하는 데 있다. 분석을 위해 순현재가치법과 선택의 유연성을 고려한 콜옵션 가격결정모형을 이용하였다. 분석결과에 따르면, 현재와 같이 국비 50%를 지원하고 전력에만 REC를 인정하면 산림에너지자립마을의 순현재가치와 내부수익률은 모두 음(-)이며, 실물옵션 모형으로 평가한 투자가치도 0으로 나타났다. 따라서 에너지 시설의 지속적 가동을 위해 정부 보조금이 필요하다. 시뮬레이션을 통해 사업의 옵션가치를 0보다 크게 만드는 열보조금 수준을 도출하였는데, 최소 0.0248원/kcal으로 나타났다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The energy use of forest biomass is crucial to deal with climate change and achieve the carbon-neutral goal. This study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of forest biomass thermal energy facilities and calculate the optimal subsidy level of heat supply to ensure continued operation of the facilities. To achieve this aim, the net present value approach (NPV) and call option price model are adopted considering wood chip price volatilities. The Forest Energy Self-Sufficient Village Project financed by Korea Forest Service is considered as the research case study. In our analysis, when 50% of the initial investment is given to the subsidies and RECs are applied to only power generation, NPV and IRR are both negative and the investment value using the real option model is also zero. We concluded that some heat subsidies should be acknowledged to keep the facilities operating. Besides, the simulation results reveal reliable economic values when the heating subsidy is priced at KRW 0.0248 per kcal.

주제어

표/그림 (10)

표 Table 1. Facility specification of Forest Energy Village.
표 Table 2. Basic data for economic analysis.
그림 Figure 1. Binominal tree of wood chip price movements.
그림 Figure 2. Wood chip price change and real upward probability.
표 Table 3. Coefficient value in mean-reverting process.
표 Table 4. Variables for real option price model.
표 Table 5. Economic feasibility using real option and NPV.
그림 Figure 3. Changes of option value with heat subsidy.
그림 Figure 4. Comparison of option value and NPV with heat subsidy.
표 Table 6. Comparison of option value and NPV by heat subsidy level.

참고문헌 (25)

Austrian Energy Agency. 2007. Low carbon heating with wood pellet fuel. A report by XCO 2 Conisbee Ltd.
Chaiyapo, N. and Phewchean, N. 2017. An application of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to commodity pricing in Thailand. Advances in Difference Equations 1: 179.

상세보기
Cho, M.J. 2018. Forest biomass supply chain management for regional self-sufficient thermal energy utilization. Ph. D. Dissertation. Kangwon National University.
Dixit, A.K. and Pindyck, R.S. 1994. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press. Princeton, N.J.
Eco Network. 2018. Monitoring of domestic wood market with change of REC weight in domestic wood. Korea Forest Service.
EPSIS (Electric Power Statistics Information System) http://epsis.kpx.or.kr/epsisnew/selectEkmaRegUpsGrid.do?menuId050804, 2020.9.15.
Guthrie, G. Real Options in Theory and Practice: Financial Management Association Survey and Synthesis; Oxford University Press: Oxford, New York, 2009; ISBN 978-0-19-538063-7.
Kang, C.Y. 2020. A Study on the development of holed woodcoal briquette(HWCB) using unused forest biomass. Ph.D. Dissertation. Chungnam National University.
KFS (Korea Forest Service). 2020. The study on fostering the use of unused forest biomass. KFS.
KOPFI (Korea Forestry Promotion Institute). 2020. International discussion on the role of forest biomass energy as a clean climate technology: Summary for decisionmakers. pp. 49.
Ministry of Commerce Industry and Energy. 2007. Policy Tasks for Utilization of Woody Biomass as Energy Source. Ministry of Commerce Industry and Energy.
Min, K.T., An, H.J. and Byun S.Y. 2020. Policy tasks to use forest biomass as a local energy source. R911. Korea Rural Economic Institute.
Oh, K.H. and Cho, Y.C. 2013. Economical feasibility of the treatment methods of the dredged sediments from contaminated agricultural reservoirs. Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers 35(10): 756-762. https://doi.org/10.4491/KSEE.2013.35.10.756

원문보기 상세보기
Park, H.J. 2018. Real option and investment analysis. Real Portal.
Park, Y.S. 2019. The present situation and implications of EU renewable energy policy supporting heat supply. NARS Issue paper No. 96. National Assembly Research Service.
Plantinga, A.J. 1998. The optimal timber rotation: an option value approach. Forest Science 44(2): 192-202.

상세보기
Public Data Portal. https://www.data.go.kr/data/3070430/fileData.do, 2020.9.15.
Routledge, B.R., Seppi, D.J. and Spatt, C.S. 2000. Equilibrium forward curves for commodities. The Journal of Finance 55(3): 1297-1338.

상세보기
RRI (Rural Research Institute), KIER(Korea Institute of Energey Research). 2018. A study on the energy conversion system of rural area focusing on renewable energy. Korea Rural Community Corporation.
Seok, H.D., Min, K.T., Sohn C.H. and Jang, W.W. 2005. Economic feasibility of woody biomass heat energy use and sustainable collection method of forest residues. C2005-30 Korea Rural Economic Institute.
Seok, H.D. and Kim, S.J. 2008. A study of industrializations and usages of forest biomass. C2008-58. Korea Rural Economic Institute.
Song, N. and Aguilar, F.X. 2017. Woody biomass energy efficiency pathways: public policy implications. Biofuels 8(4): 473-483.

상세보기
Suh, G.Y. and Kim, S.H. 2012. Case study and evaluation of economic feasibility of combined heat and power system using woodchip biomass. New & Renewable Energy 8(4): 21-29. https://doi.org/10.7849/ksnre.2012.8.4.021

원문보기 상세보기
Yanagida, T., Yoshida, T., Kuboyama, H. and Jinkawa, M. 2015. Relationship between feedstock price and break-even point of woody biomass power generation under FIT program. Journal of the Japan Institute of Energy 94(3): 311-320. (in Japanese) https://doi.org/10.3775/jie.94.311

상세보기
Yoo, S.H., Lee, S.K., Kim, S.H. and Seo, J.W. 2019. Fostering mountain village through the forest biomass energy use. Forest Policy Issue No. 119. National Forest Science Institute.

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증