[논문]단변량 기후반응함수를 이용한 금강수계 이수안전도 평가: 하천유지유량 관리 변화를 고려한 사례연구

김대하; 최시중; 장수형; 강대후

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2023.56.12.993

[국내논문] 단변량 기후반응함수를 이용한 금강수계 이수안전도 평가: 하천유지유량 관리 변화를 고려한 사례연구
Assessment of water supply reliability in the Geum River Basin using univariate climate response functions: a case study for changing instreamflow managements 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.56 no.12, 2023년, pp.993 - 1003

김대하 (전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부) , 최시중 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부) , 장수형 (K-water 연구원 수자원환경연구소) , 강대후 ((주)대성기술)

초록
AI-Helper

대기온실가스 증가로 전지구 평균기온은 산업화 이전 대비 1.1℃ 상승했고 수자원시스템의 공급능력에 상당한 변화가 예상된다. 본 연구에서는 금강수계 내 여러 중권역의 이수안전도와 기후조건의 관계(기후반응함수)를 단변량 함수로 나타내 기후민감도를 동시에 평가할 수 있는 방법을 제안하였다. 사례연구를 위해 GR6J 모형으로 중권역별 자연유출을 모의했고 이를 Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) 최적모형에 입력해 2030년 수요전망에 대한 공급신뢰도를 평가하였다. 여러 중권역의 이수안전도를 동시에 비교하기 위해 평균 강수량과 잠재증발산량의 비율을 독립변수 사용하여 단변량 기후민감도 함수를 개발하였다. 사례연구 결과, 1991-2020 자연유출을 이용해 수계전체 물부족을 최소화시키는 운영을 가정했을 때 공급신뢰도는 19개 중권역 중 보청천유역에서 가장 낮았다. 하천유지유량의 우선순위를 농업용수와 생공용수과 동일하게 조정한 시나리오에서는 보청천유역, 초강유역, 논산천유역의 이수안전도가 크게 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 보청천유역, 초강유역, 논산천유역의 이수안전도는 모든 기후스트레스 테스테에서 크게 감소한 반면, 미호강유역, 금강공주유역, 금강하구유역은 아주 건조한 기후조건에서만 이수안전도가 감소했다. 대규모 인프라에서의 공급이 원활한 중권역의 기후민감도는 크게 변하지 않았다. 2021-2050 기후전망을 민감도함수에 적용했을 때 금강수계의 공급신뢰도는 대체로 좋아질 가능성이 높지만 하천유지유량 우선순위를 높이게 되면 지형적, 인위적으로 고립된 중권역에서 물부족은 심해질 것으로 분석되었다. 2021-2050기간 금강수계의 이수안전도는 기후스트레스 보다 하천관리정책의 변화에 더 큰 영향을 받을 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Due to the increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the global mean temperature has risen by 1.1℃ compared to pre-industrial levels, and significant changes are expected in functioning of water supply systems. In this study, we assessed impacts of climate change and instreamflow management on water supply reliability in the Geum River basin, Korea. We proposed univariate climate response functions, where mean precipitation and potential evaporation were coupled as an explanatory variable, to assess impacts of climate stress on multiple water supply reliabilities. To this end, natural streamflows were generated in the 19 sub-basins with the conceptual GR6J model. Then, the simulated streamflows were input into the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The dynamic optimization by WEAP allowed us to assess water supply reliability against the 2020 water demand projections. Results showed that when minimizing the water shortage of the entire river basin under the 1991-2020 climate, water supply reliability was lowest in the Bocheongcheon among the sub-basins. In a scenario where the priority of instreamflow maintenance is adjusted to be the same as municipal and industrial water use, water supply reliability in the Bocheongcheon, Chogang, and Nonsancheon sub-basins significantly decreased. The stress tests with 325 sets of climate perturbations showed that water supply reliability in the three sub-basins considerably decreased under all the climate stresses, while the sub-basins connected to large infrastructures did not change significantly. When using the 2021-2050 climate projections with the stress test results, water supply reliability in the Geum River basin was expected to generally improve, but if the priority of instreamflow maintenance is increased, water shortage is expected to worsen in geographically isolated sub-basins. Here, we suggest that the climate response function can be established by a single explanatory variable to assess climate change impacts of many sub-basin's performance simultaneously.

Keyword

표/그림 (8)

그림 Fig. 1. The Geum River system represented by a node-and-link network of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model (left), and an approximate description of the sub-basin linkages (right). Each sub-basin was signified by numerical identifiers in the right panel
그림 Fig. 2. Distribution of agricultural water demands (left) and municipal & industrial demands (right) at the 19 sub-basins
그림 Fig. 3. Procedures for assessing water supply reliability in the Geum River basin system using the decision-scaling framework
그림 Fig. 4. Distribution of water supply reliability within the 19 sub-basins under optimal water allocation with low- (left) and high-priority (right) instreamflow managements
그림 Fig. 5. The time series of discharge from the sub-basin 3005 under the low (blue) and high (orange) priority instreamflow management. The red line signifies the legal instreamflow requirement
그림 Fig. 6. Scatter plots between the wetness index (ratios of mean annual P to Ew) and water supply reliability at the sub-basin 3009 evaluated with 325 climate stresses
그림 Fig. 7. Same as Fig. 5, but for the sub-basin 3007
그림 Fig. 8. The regressed relationships between water supply reliability and wetness index in each sub-basins with low (left) and high (right) instreamflow priorities. The gray lines represent the sub-basins with insignificant changes in the relationships between the two management options, while the blue lines indicate those with considerable changes. The numbers besides blue lines signify the sub-basin identifiers

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