[논문]AI 중소기업 바우처 지원이 기업성과에 미치는 영향: PSM-DID 결합모형을 활용한 정책효과 분석

최석원; 이주연

doi:10.9723/jksiis.2023.28.1.057

AI 중소기업 바우처 지원이 기업성과에 미치는 영향: PSM-DID 결합모형을 활용한 정책효과 분석
The Impact of Voucher Support on Economic Performance for AI Companies: Policy Effectiveness Analysis using PSM-DID Model 원문보기

한국산업정보학회논문지 = Journal of the Korea Industrial Information Systems Research, v.28 no.1, 2023년, pp.57 - 69

최석원 (아주대학교 일반대학원 과학기술정책학과) , 이주연 (아주대학교 일반대학원 과학기술정책학과)

초록
AI-Helper

전세계적으로 인공지능(AI)을 활용한 디지털전환을 위해 국가적 역량을 집중하고 있는 상황에서 국내 AI 기업 육성이나 AI 산업생태계 환경조성은 더디기만 하다. 정부는 대내외적으로 힘든 경제상황을 타개하기 위해 거액의 공적자금을 투입하고 있으나 그 효과에 대한 체계적 연구는 미진하다. 이런 이유로 본 연구는 성향점수매칭(PSM)과 이중차분법(DID)을 활용하여 정부 인공지능 솔루션 바우처 지원 사업이 수혜기업의 경제적 성과에 미치는 정책효과를 살펴보고자 하였다. 실증분석을 위해 정보통신산업진흥원에서 공개한 AI 중소기업 정보 중 바우처 지원 이력이 있는 461개 기업을 대상으로 2019년 이후 매출 실적을 활용해 PSM-DID 분석을 수행하였다. 실험군과 대조군을 비교 분석한 결과 수혜기업은 정부지원 이후 자산증가, 임금, 연구개발비 등이 전반적으로 증가한 반면, 수익측면에서는 유의미한 기여도를 확인할 수 없었다. 이는 AI 바우처 정책사업이 단기적으로 기업 외형성장에 직접적인 기여를 하였으나 수익창출 여부는 중장기적 시간이 필요하다는 점을 시사한다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

In a situation where digital transformation using artificial intelligence is active around the world, the growth of domestic AI companies or AI industrial ecosystems is slow. Where a large amount of government funds related to AI are being invested to overcome the difficult economic situation, systematic research on the effect is insufficient. So, this study aimed to examine the policy effectiveness of the government artificial intelligence solution voucher support project for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) on the financial performance of beneficiary companies. For empirical analysis, PSM-DID analysis was performed using sales performance since 2019 for 461 companies with a history of voucher support among the AI SMEs data released by the National IT Industry Promotion Agency. As a result of the analysis, the beneficiary companies' asset growth, salary, and R&D expenses increased overall after government support, and no significant contribution could be confirmed in terms of profits. This study suggests that the voucher policy business directly contributed to the company's growth in the short term, but it requires a certain period of time to generate profits.

주제어

표/그림 (15)

그림 Fig. 1 AI voucher operating structure
표 Table 1 AI voucher application status by year
표 Table 2 The literature review using PSM-DID on the government sponsored project
표 Table 3 AI voucher companies by year
표 Table 4 Measurement variables by performance
그림 Fig. 2 Performance analysis using PSM-DID
표 Table 5 AI voucher selected companies statistics
표 Table 6 AI voucher dropped companies statistics
표 Table 7 Probit regression results
표 Table 8 T-test results for each variable before PSM
표 Table 9 T-test results for each variable after PSM
그림 Fig. 3 Propensity distribution before matching
그림 Fig. 4 Propensity distribution after matching
표 Table 10 Mean per year per variable after matching (million won)
표 Table 11 t-test results

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