[논문]미래 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량예측 불확실성

김진혁; 송영훈; 정은성

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2023.56.1.35

미래 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량예측 불확실성
Uncertainty of future runoff projection according to SSP scenarios and hydrologic model parameters 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.56 no.1, 2023년, pp.35 - 43

김진혁 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) , 송영훈 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) , 정은성 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과)

초록
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미래 유량분석은 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형의 매개변수에 영향을 받고 이에 따른 불확실성이 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량 분석의 불확실성을 분석하고자 하였다. SSP 시나리오 중, 대표적으로 사용되는 SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5시나리오를 사용하였으며, 수문모형으로는 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 모형을 사용하였다. SWAT 모형의 매개변수는 SWAT-CUP을 이용해 관측된 유량 데이터에 따라 총 11개의 기간에 대해 매개변수 최적화를 각각 수행하였다. 그 후 분포의 차이를 계산 할 수 있는 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JS-D)를 이용해 과거 유량 대비 미래 추정된 유량의 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 미래 유량의 불확실성은 SSP5-8.5에서 SSP2-4.5보다 더 크게 분석되었으며, 가까운 미래(2021-2060년) 보다 먼 미래(2061-2100년)에서 더 크게 분석되었다. 강우-유출 분석은 수문모형 매개변수에 따라 88.5%-108.5%까지 차이가 발생하였으며, 이에 따라 미래 유량을 추정하는데 불확실성이 발생하였다. 본 연구에서의 수문 모형의 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량 추정의 불확실성은 평년 대비 유량이 적은 연도의 관측 유량 데이터를 이용한 매개변수를 이용할 시 불확실성이 크게 분석되었다. 또한 평년 대비 유량 변화가 큰 기간의 매개 변수일수록 미래 유량 추정의 불확실성이 크게 분석되었다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Future runoff analysis is influenced by climate change scenarios and hydrologic model parameters, with uncertainties. In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff analysis according to the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario and hydrologic model parameters was analyzed. Among the SSP scenarios, the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used, and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used as the hydrologic model. For the parameters of the SWAT model, a total of 11 parameter were optimized to the observed runoff data using SWAT-CUP. Then, uncertainty analysis of future estimated runoff compared to the observed runoff was performed using jensen-shannon divergence (JS-D), which can calculate the difference in distribution. As a result, uncertainty of future runoff was analyzed to be larger in SSP5-8.5 than in SSP2-4.5, and larger in the far future (2061-2100) than in the near future (2021-2060). In this study, the uncertainty of future runoff using future climate data according to the parameters of the hydrologic model is as follows. Uncertainty was greatly analyzed when parameters used observed runoff data in years with low flow rates compared to average years. In addition, the uncertainty of future runoff estimation was analyzed to be greater for the parameters of the period in which the change in runoff compared to the average year was greater.

주제어

표/그림 (8)

그림 Fig. 1. Description of study area
그림 Fig. 2. Yeongsan river Runoff hydrographs during model: (a) Calibration period; and (b) Validation period
그림 Fig. 3. Uncertainty of past runoff analysis according to HM parameters
표 Table 1. GCM data performance of precipitation and temperature for raw and bias corrected data
표 Table 2. The performances of 11 sets of calibrated SWAT parameters
그림 Fig. 4. Variations of future climate under SSP scenarios
그림 Fig. 5. Variations of runoff under SSP scenarios
표 Table 3. The JS-D values for past and future runoff

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