[논문]외항 상선 해기사 인력 수요 및 공급 예측에 관한 연구

신상훈; 신용존

doi:10.5394/kinpr.2024.48.1.7

외항 상선 해기사 인력 수요 및 공급 예측에 관한 연구
A Study on Forecasting Demand and Supply of Marine Officer for Korean Ocean-Going Merchant Vessels 원문보기

한국항해항만학회지 = Journal of navigation and port research, v.48 no.1, 2024년, pp.7 - 16

초록
AI-Helper

외항 상선 선박 척수가 증가하고 있지만, 한국인 해기사가 감소하여 인력 부족 문제가 심각하게 대두되고 있는 상황에서 본 연구는 외항 상선 해기사 인력 수요와 공급을 결정하는 요인들을 객관적으로 측정하여 정확한 인력 수요와 공급을 예측하고자 하였다. 인력 수요는 선박 규모별 필요 해기사 수의 차이를 반영하여 선박 증가 예측치에 이를 적용하여 직급별로 예측하였다. 인력 공급은 Markov모형을 활용하여 연도별 승진, 이직, 퇴직, 신규 진입 등의 증감요인을 반영하여 직급별 연령별로 세분화하여 예측하였다. 외항 상선 해기사 인력 수요는 2023년 11,638명에서 2030년 13,879명으로 증가하고, 공급은 2023년 7,006명에서 2030년 6,426명으로 감소하여 2040년에는 부족인원이 1만명을 넘는 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구는 객관적인 데이터와 과학적 분석방법 및 논리적 추론을 통해 예측의 정확도를 제고하여 외항 상선해기사 인력 부족 문제를 해결하는데 유용한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Although the number of ocean-going merchant ships is increasing, the number of Korean marine officers is decreasing. This manpower shortage problem is becoming more serious. This study objectively measured factors determining the demand and supply of ocean-going merchant ship officers and forecasted the exact manpower demand and supply. Demand was predicted by applying the number of ship officers required for each ship size to the number of ships forecasted. The supply was predicted by segmenting by position and age using the Markov model, reflecting increase/decrease factors such as promotion, turnover, retirement, and new entry by year. The demand for ocean-going merchant ship officers will increase from 11,638 in 2023 to 13,879 in 2030 while the supply will decrease from7,006 in 2023 to 6,426 in 2030, with the shortage expected to exceed 10,000 in 2040. This study can be used as a reference to solve the problem of manpower shortage for ocean-going merchant ship officers by improving the accuracy of predictions through objective data, scientific analysis methods, and logical reasoning.

주제어

표/그림 (17)

표 Table 2 The number of ocean-going marine officers(2003~2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 1 The number of ocean-going vessels by size(2003~2022) (unit: vessel)
표 Table 3 Forecast of ocean-going vessels by size(2003~2022)(unit: vessel)
표 Table 4 Forecast of ocean-going marine officer by vesselsize(2023~2040)(unit: person)
표 Table 5 Forecasting the demand of ocean-going marineofficer(2023~2040)(unit: person)
표 Table 6 The supply scale of ocean-going marine officer by grade(2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 7 The supply scale of ocean-going marine officer by license grade(2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 8 Age distribution of employed ocean-going marine officer by license grade(2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 9 Age distribution of supply scale of ocean-going marine officer by job position(2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 10 The number of maritime graduates employed as on board and spares(2012∼2021)(unit: person)
표 Table 11 Calculation of turnover rate of ocean-going marine officer(unit: %)
표 Table 12 Calculation of turnover rate of captain and chief engineer of ocean-going vessel(unit: person, %)
표 Table 13 New supply of graduates from universities, high schools and ocean polytechnic(2022)(unit: person)
표 Table 14 Forecasting supply of ocean-going marine officer by age(2023~2040)(unit: person)
표 Table 15 Forecasting supply of ocean-going marine officer (2023~2040)(unit: person)
표 Table 16 Forecasting demand and supply of ocean-going marine officers and shortage of manpower (2023~2040)(unit: person)
표 Table 17 Forecasting the shortage of Korean ocean-going marine officer and the supply of foreign officer (2023~2040)(unit: person)

참고문헌 (14)

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상세보기
Lee, J. K.(2022), A Study on the Forecasting of Demand？and Supply and the Diagnosis and Countermeasure of？Manpower Shortage of Korean Merchant Marine Officer,？Phd. thesis of Korea Maritime and Ocean University.
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