[논문]대기화학-에어로졸 연동에 따른 기후예측시스템(GloSea6)의 동아시아 봄철 예측 성능 향상 가능성

송형규; 윤대옥; 이조한; 신범철

doi:10.5467/jkess.2024.45.1.19

[국내논문] 대기화학-에어로졸 연동에 따른 기후예측시스템(GloSea6)의 동아시아 봄철 예측 성능 향상 가능성
Possibilities for Improvement in Long-term Predictions of the Operational Climate Prediction System (GloSea6) for Spring by including Atmospheric Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions over East Asia

한국지구과학회지 = Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, v.45 no.1, 2024년, pp.19 - 36

송형규 (충북대학교 지구과학교육과) , 윤대옥 (충북대학교 지구과학교육과) , 이조한 (국립기상과학원 기후연구부) , 신범철 (국립기상과학원 기후연구부)

초록
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1개월과 3개월 장기 예보를 지원하기 위해 기상청에서 현업운용 중인 GloSea6 기후예측시스템에는 대기 중 대기화학-에어로졸 물리과정(UKCA)이 연동되어 있지 않다. 본 연구에서는 저해상도의 GloSea6와 여기에 대기화학-에어로졸 과정을 연동시킨 GloSea6-UKCA를 CentOS 기반 리눅스 클러스터에 설치하여 2000년 봄철에 대한 예비적인 예측결과를 살펴보았다. 현업 고해상도 GloSea6 모델이 방대한 전산자원을 필요로 한다는 점을 고려할 때, 저해상도 GloSea6와 GloSea6-UKCA 모델은 대기화학-에어로졸 과정의 연동에 따른 효과를 살펴보기에 적합하다. 저해상도 GloSea6와 GloSea6-UKCA는 2000년 3월 1일 00Z부터 75일 간 구동되었으며, 두 모델이 예측한 2000년 4월 지상 기온과 일평균 강수량의 공간 분포를 ERA5 재분석자료와 비교하였다. GloSea6-UKCA가 예측한 기온과 강수 분포는 기존 GloSea6에 비해 ERA5 재분석자료에 보다 더 유사해졌다. 특히 우리나라를 포함한 동아시아 지역에 대해 과대 모의 경향이 있던 봄철 지상 기온과 일평균 강수량의 예측 결과의 개선이 주목할 만하다. 또한 적분 시간에 따른 예측된 기온과 강수량의 시계열에서도 GloSea6-UKCA가 GloSea6보다 재분석자료에 더 가까워진 시간 변화 경향을 살펴볼 수 있었다. 이는 대기화학-에어로졸 과정이 GloSea6에 연동되었을 때 동아시아지역 봄철 예측 성능이 개선될 수 있음을 보여준다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration for 1- and 3-month prediction products does not include complex atmospheric chemistry-aerosol physical processes (UKCA). In this study, low-resolution GloSea6 and GloSea6 coupled with UKCA (GloSea6-UKCA) were installed in a CentOS-based Linux cluster system, and preliminary prediction results for the spring of 2000 were examined. Low-resolution versions of GloSea6 and GloSea6-UKCA are highly needed to examine the effects of atmospheric chemistry-aerosol owing to the huge computational demand of the current high resolution GloSea6. The spatial distributions of the surface temperature and daily precipitation for April 2000 (obtained from the two model runs for the next 75 days, starting from March 1, 2000, 00Z) were compared with the ERA5 reanalysis data. The GloSea6-UKCA results were more similar to the ERA5 reanalysis data than the GloSea6 results. The surface air temperature and daily precipitation prediction results of GloSea6-UKCA for spring, particularly over East Asia, were improved by the inclusion of UKCA. Furthermore, compared with GloSea6, GloSea6-UKCA simulated improved temporal variations in the temperature and precipitation intensity during the model integration period that were more similar to the reanalysis data. This indicates that the coupling of atmospheric chemistry-aerosol processes in GloSea6 is crucial for improving the spring predictions over East Asia.

Keyword

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