Abstract

Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long-field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years to obsolescence and life cycle stages are predicted. The methodology embeds both market and technology factors based on the dynamic assessment of sales data. The predictions enabled from the models developed in this paper allow engineers to effectively manage the introduction and on-going use of long field-life products based on the projected life cycle of the parts incorporated into the products. Application of the methodology to integrated circuits is discussed and obsolescence predictions for dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) are demonstrated. The goal is to significantly reduce design iterations, inventory expenses, sustainment costs, and overall life cycle product costs.