Bejan, Adrian
(Duke University, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science)
,
Gunes, Umit
(Duke University, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science)
Abstract Here we propose a heat transfer framework for how human-to-human interaction spreads everything on the landscape: disease, goods, knowledge, news, technology, science, language and culture. We show that the phenomenon of “human spreading” shares key features with phenomena that...
Abstract Here we propose a heat transfer framework for how human-to-human interaction spreads everything on the landscape: disease, goods, knowledge, news, technology, science, language and culture. We show that the phenomenon of “human spreading” shares key features with phenomena that are fundamental in physics (heat, electricity, species, Darcy fluid flow), which spread through continua. As example for discussion and illustration, we construct this theoretical framework by using the early phase of the coronavirus outbreak, from before May 2020. The human spreading phenomenon (S curve) is unveiled systematically by using a minimum of measurable parameters: the number of persons with whom one person comes in contact, the radial size of each step in the growth of the swept territory, the radial scale of the inhabited territory, and the directions in which infrastructure (e.g., air routes) are available for long and fast spreading. The resulting configuration of spreading is a multiscale assembly of clusters of fast channels embedded in interstices with slow diffusion. The configuration is dendritic, where each direction of long and fast spreading is covered by a finger of clusters, and each finger generates its own ramifications. The similarities between this configuration and the dendritic architectures for heat and fluid flow through heterogeneous media are discussed. Highlights The spreading of a virus has features and physics principle in common with heat spreading. The spreading of both (virus, heat) covers a space that grows predictively in S-curve fashion. The spreading is faster when the production density (virus, heat) is greater on thefrontline of the invaded region. The spreading virus sheds light on the physics of “human spreading,” between individuals, not through a continuum. Graphical abstract [DISPLAY OMISSION]
Abstract Here we propose a heat transfer framework for how human-to-human interaction spreads everything on the landscape: disease, goods, knowledge, news, technology, science, language and culture. We show that the phenomenon of “human spreading” shares key features with phenomena that are fundamental in physics (heat, electricity, species, Darcy fluid flow), which spread through continua. As example for discussion and illustration, we construct this theoretical framework by using the early phase of the coronavirus outbreak, from before May 2020. The human spreading phenomenon (S curve) is unveiled systematically by using a minimum of measurable parameters: the number of persons with whom one person comes in contact, the radial size of each step in the growth of the swept territory, the radial scale of the inhabited territory, and the directions in which infrastructure (e.g., air routes) are available for long and fast spreading. The resulting configuration of spreading is a multiscale assembly of clusters of fast channels embedded in interstices with slow diffusion. The configuration is dendritic, where each direction of long and fast spreading is covered by a finger of clusters, and each finger generates its own ramifications. The similarities between this configuration and the dendritic architectures for heat and fluid flow through heterogeneous media are discussed. Highlights The spreading of a virus has features and physics principle in common with heat spreading. The spreading of both (virus, heat) covers a space that grows predictively in S-curve fashion. The spreading is faster when the production density (virus, heat) is greater on thefrontline of the invaded region. The spreading virus sheds light on the physics of “human spreading,” between individuals, not through a continuum. Graphical abstract [DISPLAY OMISSION]
Lancet Infect. Dis. Kucharski 20 553 2020 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
Infect. Genet. Evol. Liang 82 104306 2020 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306 Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS
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