참고문헌 (35)

1. Korea after Kim Jong-Il 2004 

2. Recall North Korean propaganda that describes Kim Jong Il “as a contemporary god” “superior to Christ in love, superior to Buddha in benevolence, superior to Confucius in virtue, and superior to Mohammed in justice,” and, ultimately, “the savior of mankind.” After the death of Kim Il Sung the office of the presidency was abolished, and Kim was designated the “eternal president.” 

3. One Korea? Foster-Carter Aidan 1994 

4. Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea Park Han S. 1998 

5. The Hidden Gulag Hawk David 2003 

6. Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, North Korea 2004 

7. A survey of 200 recent defectors found that for 19 percent foreign radio broadcasts such as Korea Broadcasting System Radio Liberty, Voice of America, and Radio Free Asia were their main source of news. Twenty-one percent knew someone who had modified their North Korean fixed tuner radios to listen to foreign broadcasts, and more than half reported knowing someone who had been punished for listening to unauthorized broadcasts. None reported receiving information through foreign newspapers. There is no way of knowing how representative these defectors are of the general public. 

8. Hawk, The Hidden Gulag ; State Department, Report on Human Rights ; KINU, White Paper. 

9. In addition to North Korean citizens, North Korea reportedly detains 486 South Koreans and an unknown number of non-Koreans (KINU, White Paper ). 

10. Alternative death estimates are analyzed in Marcus Noland, “North Korea: Famine and Reform,” Asian Economic Papers , No. III (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2004), forthcoming. 

11. KINU, White Paper. 

12. Noland, Marcus. 2000. Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas 179Washington: Institute for International Economics. (Table 5.2) provides nine examples of “food for talks.” A recent example is the February 2003 U.S. government announcement, in the run-up to diplomatic talks over the North Korean nuclear weapons program, that it would provide 40,000 metric tons of grain to North Korea, despite the fact that the North Koreans had not fulfilled the June 2002 aid transparency and monitoring conditions, which had been reaffirmed the previous month, January 2003, by USAID Administrator Andrew S. Natsios. China implicitly linked donations to political behavior continued in the diplomatic maneuvering around the Six Party Talks over the North Korean nuclear program in 2003 and 2004. The termination of support by Japan in 2002 and its resumption in 2004 were explicitly linked to diplomatic developments. 

13. Amnesty International, “Starved for Rights,” and Noland, “North Korea: Famine and Reform.” 

14. “U.S. More Dangerous than NK? Most Seem to Think So,” Chosun Ilbo , January 12, 2004, available athttp://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200401/200401120021.htmlaccessed March 1, 2005. 

15. Confrontation and Innovation on the Korean Peninsula Bong Young-shik 18 2003 

16. Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse. 

17. One result of these changes has been a noticeable upsurge in small-scale retail activity, with Peter Gey “North Korea: Soviet-style Reform and the Erosion of the State Economy,” Internationale Politik und Geschellschaft , No. I (Bonn, 2004), pp. 115-33, available athttp://www.fes.de/ipg/ONLINE1_2004/ARTGEY.HTM(in German), accessed on March 1, 2005; English version (Singapore: Dialogue and Cooperation, No. 1/2004, forthcoming), estimating that six to eight percent of the work force is engaged in informal trading activities. Although this is usually interpreted as household-level entrepreneurial activity, Han Shik Park, a frequent visitor to North Korea, argues that most of this activity is sponsored by SOEs, which own the capital such as carts used by peddlers. According to Park, SOEs partly deprived of state subsidies have entered small-scale retailing as a means of generating revenue. 

18. Noland, “North Korea: Famine and Reform,” Table 4. 

19. Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse , p. 76 (Table 3.7). 

20. 10.2307/2534649 Anders Aslund, Peter Boone, and Simon Johnson, “How To Stabilize: Lessons from Post-Communist Countries,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , No. I (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1996), pp. 217-313. 

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21. Ibid. 

22. Chosun Ilbo , July 27, 2004; translated as “South Korea reports defections rising despite North efforts to tighten border,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring , July 29, 2004. 

23. The first such zone was established in the Rajin-Sonbong region in the extreme northeast of the country in 1991. It has proved to be a failure for a variety of reasons, including its geographic isolation, poor infrastructure, onerous rules, and interference in enterprise management by party officials. The one major investment has been the establishment of a combination hotel/casino/bank. Given the obvious scope for illicit activity associated with such a horizontally integrated endeavor, the result has been less Hong Kong than Macau North. 

24. World Food Programme, “Public Distribution System (PDS) in DPRK,” DPR Korea Country Office, May 21, 2003. 

25. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 (Rome, 2003), Table 1. See Noland, “North Korea: Famine and Reform” for an evaluation of the WFP and FAO data. 

26. See Ruediger Frank, “A Socialist Market Economy in North Korea? Systemic Restrictions and a Quantitative Analysis,” (New York, 2003), unpublished paper, and Noland, Korea After Kim Jong-Il. 

27. The quality of the data for North Korea is extremely poor. See Marcus Noland, “The Two Koreas: Prospects for Economic Cooperation and Integration,” East-West Center Special Reports , No. VII (Honolulu: East-West Center, 2000), for a discussion. 

28. Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse , p. 252. 

29. Andrei Lankov, “Pyongyang: Rules of Engagement,” Pacific Review , No. XVI (2003), pp. 617-26. 

30. Noland, Korea After Kim Jong-Il. The underlying sample consisted of 71 countries. In some applications, the sample size was reduced due to missing data on the explanatory variables. See the appendix to Noland, Korea after Kim Jong-Il for a more complete description of the data used in this analysis. 

31. Other models reported in Noland, Korea after Kim Jong-Il generally yield higher probabilities, though a similar time-series pattern. 

32. It could also be the mechanism through which a skeptical military is reassured that the primacy of its status will not be challenged in the reform process. 

33. Madame Secretary: A Memoir Albright Madeleine 2003 

34. Economic Integration on the Korean Peninsula Michel Anthony 137 1998 

35. United Nations Economic and Social Council, “Situation of Human Rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,” E/CN.4/2003/L.31, April 11, 2003. Regrettably, South Korea has abstained from the UN human rights votes on North Korea.