[논문]Zero-Inflated and Hurdle Models of Count Data with Extra Zeros: Examples from an HIV-Risk Reduction Intervention Trial

Hu, Mei-Chen; Pavlicova, Martina; Nunes, Edward V.

doi:10.3109/00952990.2011.597280

[해외논문] Zero-Inflated and Hurdle Models of Count Data with Extra Zeros: Examples from an HIV-Risk Reduction Intervention Trial 원문보기

The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse, v.37 no.5, 2011년, pp.367 - 375

Hu, Mei-Chen (Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA) , Pavlicova, Martina (Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA) , Nunes, Edward V. (Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Background: In clinical trials of behavioral health interventions, outcome variables often take the form of counts, such as days using substances or episodes of unprotected sex. Classically, count data follow a Poisson distribution; however, in practice such data often display greater heterogeneity in the form of excess zeros (zero-inflation) or greater spread in the values (overdispersion) or both. Greater sample heterogeneity may be especially common in community-based effectiveness trials, where broad eligibility criteria are implemented to achieve a generalizable sample. Objectives: This article reviews the characteristics of Poisson model and the related models that have been developed to handle overdispersion (negative binomial (NB) model) or zero-inflation (zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Poisson hurdle (PH) models) or both (zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and negative binomial hurdle (NBH) models). Methods: All six models were used to model the effect of an HIV-risk reduction intervention on the count of unprotected sexual occasions (USOs), using data from a previously completed clinical trial among female patients (N == 515) participating in community-based substance abuse treatment (Tross et al. Effectiveness of HIV/AIDS sexual risk reduction groups for women in substance abuse treatment programs: Results of NIDA Clinical Trials Network Trial. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2008; 48(5):581-589). Goodness of fit and the estimates of treatment effect derived from each model were compared. Results: The ZINB model provided the best fit, yielding a medium-sized effect of intervention. Conclusions and Scientific Significance: This article illustrates the consequences of applying models with different distribution assumptions on the data. If a model used does not closely fit the shape of the data distribution, the estimate of the effect of the intervention may be biased, either over- or underestimating the intervention effect.

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