초록

AI-Helper

  기존 외생물가모형과 내외생변수 전환 물가모형은 두 산업 이상에서 물가변화가 나타나게 되면, "외생화된 산업 간 파급효과"와 "외생화된 산업으로의 환류효과"를 포착하지 못하게 되므로 물가파급효과를 과소평가하게 된다. 대안으로 정립된 RS물가모형은 파급·환류 효과를 포착할 수 있으므로 동 모형을 이용하여 1995~2005년간 애그플레이션의 물가연관구조를 분석하였다. 첫째, 애그플레이션은 전 산업 평균 이하의 물가유발효과를 보이는 것으로 나타난다. 둘째, 농산물이 직접적인 투입재로서 사용되는 비중이 낮아지고 있으므로 애그플레이션이 미치는 직접적인 물가파급효과는 점차 감소되는 것으로 분석된다. 셋째, 애그플레이션의 물가인상효고는 전 산업 평균에 미치지 못하지만 제조업 및 서비스업 전반에 걸쳐 포괄적인 영향을 미치게 된다. 넷째, 농산물의 직접적인 투입재로서의 기능에 비하여 화학산업(예: agrofuels)과 같은 산업에서 투입재로서 쓰이는 비중은 점차 높아지고 있는데 이러한 간접 투입에 따른 물가파급효과(농산물→화학산업→기타 산업)는 많이 증대될 것으로 평가된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The models used for estimating the price effects are classified as three types as follows; the exogenous price model, the mixed exogenous-endogenous price model, and the RS price model. The exogenous price model does not include entire inter-industry relations compared with the original Input-Outp...

The models used for estimating the price effects are classified as three types as follows; the exogenous price model, the mixed exogenous-endogenous price model, and the RS price model. The exogenous price model does not include entire inter-industry relations compared with the original Input-Output structure due to the exogenized industries, thereby, it can not capture the indirect effect(feed-back). The mixed exogenous-endogenous price model, also can not capture the full effect, even if it maintains the entire system of the original Input-Output structure. Because the value-added components of concerned industries are included in endogenized price vector. The RS price model does not damage entire inter-industry structure. The model captures the inter-industry price relations, thereby the multiplier is greater than that of the exogenous price model and the mixed exogenous-endogenous price model. From the view of internal consistency and applicability, the RS price model may be superior to the exogenous price model and the mixed exogenous-endogenous price model. However, the same results of all price models are produced if the agflation, the inter-industry price effects of agflation have decreased since 1995 in Korea. However, indirect effects through the price change of chemical industry, such as agrofuels which use grains as inputs, have increased more than direct effects of raised price of grains.

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