IPC분류정보
국가/구분 |
United States(US) Patent
등록
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국제특허분류(IPC7판) |
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출원번호 |
US-0267393
(2002-10-09)
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발명자
/ 주소 |
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대리인 / 주소 |
Jones, Walker, Waechter, Poitevent, Carrere, &
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인용정보 |
피인용 횟수 :
10 인용 특허 :
5 |
초록
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A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, the time window having a time length P, having the steps of:(a) gathering the plant's historical production data over a selected time period of length L and calculating the cycle entries of availability fractions for that
A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, the time window having a time length P, having the steps of:(a) gathering the plant's historical production data over a selected time period of length L and calculating the cycle entries of availability fractions for that data set;(b) calculating capacity C(i,1) for each contiguous portion p(i,1) of length p of the cycle entries from the previous step;(c) storing that calculated capacities C(i,1);(d) randomly shuffling the cycle entries;(e) calculating the capacity C(i,2) for each contiguous portion p(i,2) of the shuffled cycle entries;(f) storing the calculated capacities C(i,2); and(g) repeating steps (e)-(f) for a sufficient number of iterations, and then creating a histogram of the calculated capacities C(i,j).
대표청구항
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1. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, said method comprising the steps of:(a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a selected time period; (b) creating the cycle entry data set of availability frac
1. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, said method comprising the steps of:(a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a selected time period; (b) creating the cycle entry data set of availability fractions for said time period, said cycle entry data set representing a plant operating time of length L; (c) calculating the capacity (C(i,1)) for each contiguous portion of length P of the cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index representing the number of contiguous P length portions of the cycle entry data set of length L; (d) shuffling the elements in the cycle entry data set; (e) calculating the capacities (C(i,j)),j=2, for each contiguous portion of length P of said shuffled cycle entry data set; (f) storing said calculated capacities C(i,2), j=2; (g) repeating steps (d)-(f) a sufficient number of times, incrementing the index j for each iteration; and (h) creating a histogram data set from said stored capacities C(i,j). 2. The method according to claim 1 wherein at least a portion of said historical production plant data is created.3. The method according to claim 1 wherein said steps of assembling said plant data includes the steps of editing said plant data.4. The method according to claim 1 where said step of creating a cycle entry data set includes the step of editing said cycle entries.5. A computer readable medium having stored thereon a series of computer executable instructions for performing the method comprising the steps of claim 1.6. A method of evaluating a projected plant production value C consisting of the steps of:(a) evaluating the plants capacity according to the method of claim 1; (b) assigning a first value for unit production sold but unavailable; (c) assigning a second value for unit production available but unsold; (d) evaluating the probability of capacity being below the value C; and (e) evaluating the probability of the capacity being above the capacity C. 7. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, said method comprising the steps of:(a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a selected time period; (b) creating the cycle entry data set of availability fractions for said time period, said cycle entry data set representing a plant operating time of length L; (c) calculating the capacity C(i,1) for each contiguous portion of length P of said cycle entries from the previous step, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of the cycle entry data set of length L; and (d) creating a first histogram(1) data set from said stored capacities C(i,1). 8. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest according to claim 7, further comprising the steps of:(e) shuffling said cycle entries; (f) calculating said capacity C(i,2) for each contiguous portion of length P of said shuffled cycle entries where i is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of the cycle entry data set of length L; (g) creating a second frequency histogram (2) data set from said stored capacities C(i,2); (h) comparing said histogram(1) data set to said histogram(2) data set; and (i) repeating steps (f)-(i) for a sufficient number of iterations. 9. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest according to claim 7, wherein said cycle entry data set of availability fractions comprises a plurality of entries, each of said entries comprising of a first series of availability fractions associated with time between failure (ATBF(k)) and a second series of availability fractions associated with time to restore (ATTR(j)).10. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest according to claim 9, wherein said availability fractions associated with said ATBF(k)series are valued at 1.0.11. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest according to claim 9 wherein said capacity is calculated as C(i,1)=(Σ(ATBF(k)+ATTR(j) for those time intervals k and j within the P length window)/P.12. The method according to claim 7 wherein at least a portion of said historical production plant data is created.13. The method according to claim 7 wherein said steps of assembling said plant data includes the steps of editing said plant data.14. The method according to claim 7 where said step of creating a cycle entry data set includes the step of editing said cycle entries.15. A computer readable medium having stored thereon a series of computer executable instructions for performing the method comprising the steps of claim 7.16. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, said method comprising the steps of:(a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a selected time; (b) calculating the cycle entry data set of availability fractions said time period, said cycle entry data set representing a plant operating time of length L; (c) creating a first extended cycle entry data set from said cycle entry data set by including at least one shuffled cycle entry data sets in said extended cycle entry data set, said extended cycle entry data set representing a plant operating time of length M(1); (d) calculating the capacity C(i,1) for each contiguous portion of length P of said first extended cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of the extended cycle entry data set of length M(1); and (e) creating a histogram data set from said stored capacities. 17. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest according to claim 16, further comprising the steps of:(f) for j=2 Repeating step (d) by adding a greater number of shuffled cycle entry data sets to create a j-extended cycle entry data set of length M(j), said length being greater than said previous extended cycle entry data set of length M(j?1); (g) calculating the capacity C(i,j) for each contiguous portion of length P of said j-extended cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of the extended cycle entry data set of length M(j); (h) creating a histogram(j) data set from said capacities C(i,j). 18. The method according to claim 17 further comprising the steps of repeating steps (f)-(h) for a sufficient number of iterations, incrementing j on each iteration.19. The method according to claim 17 wherein a graphical representation of said histogram(j) data set is produced.20. The method according to claim 17 wherein at least a portion of said historical production plant data is created.21. The method according to claim 17 wherein said steps of assembling said plant data includes the steps of editing said plant data.22. The method according to claim 17 where said step of creating a cycle entry data set includes the step of editing said cycle entries.23. A computer readable medium having stored thereon a series of computer executable instructions for performing the method comprising the steps of claim 17.24. A method to determine the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, said method comprising the steps of:(a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a time period; (b) creating a first cycle entry data set of availability fractions for said time period, said first cycle entry set representing a plant operating time of length L; (c) creating a first extended cycle entry data set, said first extended cycle entry data set being a set of M cycle entry data sets, where each of said M cycle entry data sets is a shuffled version of said first cycle entry data set, M being a pre-selected integer; (d) calculating the capacities (C(i,1)) for each contiguous portion of length P of said first extended cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions in said first extended cycle entry data set; and (e) creating a histogram data set from said capacities C(i,1). 25. The method according to claim 24 further comprising the steps of:(f) creating a second extended cycle data set of length M2, where M2 is an integer not equal to M1; (g) calculating the capacity (C(i,2)) for each contiguous portion of length P of the cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of said second extended cycle data set; and (h) creating a second histogram data set from said capacities C(i,2). 26. The method according to claim 25 further comprising the steps of:(i) testing said second histogram data set for convergence, and if convergence is lacking; (j) creating a third extended cycle data set of length M3, where M3 is an integer not equal to M2; (k) calculating the capacity (C(i,3)) for each contiguous portion of length P of the cycle entry data set, where “i” is an index ranging over the number of contiguous P length portions of said third extended cycle data set; (l) creating a third histogram data set from said capacities C(i,3); and (m) testing said third histogram data set for convergence. 27. The method according to claim 24 wherein at least a portion of said historical production plant data is created.28. The method according to claim 24 wherein said steps of assembling said plant data includes the steps of editing said plant data.29. The method according to claim 24 where said step of creating a cycle entry data set includes the step of editing said cycle entries.30. A computer readable medium having stored thereon a series of computer executable instructions for performing the method comprising the steps of claim 24.
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