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A flaking development analysis method and a flaking development analysis device for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing which make it possible to, after fine flaking occurs, predict a relationship between an elapsed time and a shape of a flaked portion based on a development speed of the flaking, an

A flaking development analysis method and a flaking development analysis device for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing which make it possible to, after fine flaking occurs, predict a relationship between an elapsed time and a shape of a flaked portion based on a development speed of the flaking, and perform bearing replacement at an appropriate timing.

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1. A flaking development analysis method for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing for predicting development of flaking of a raceway ring of a rolling bearing which is to be used in a rotation machine and includes inner and outer raceway rings and rolling elements between the two raceway rings, compr

1. A flaking development analysis method for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing for predicting development of flaking of a raceway ring of a rolling bearing which is to be used in a rotation machine and includes inner and outer raceway rings and rolling elements between the two raceway rings, comprising the steps of: acquiring presence or absence and a shape of flaking of the raceway ring by a flaking state acquisition unit;calculating, based on at least the acquired shape of the flaked portion, a specification of the rolling bearing, and a working condition of the rolling bearing, a rolling element load acting on a rolling element when the rolling element passes through an exit portion of the flaked portion of the raceway ring taking a shape of the in-progress flaked portion into consideration;calculating, based on the rolling element load at the exit portion of the flaked portion, a development speed of the flaking in which a shape of the in-progress flaked portion is taken into consideration; andcalculating a relationship between an elapsed time and a shape of the flaked portion based on the development speed of the flaking. 2. The flaking development analysis method for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing according to claim 1, wherein the shape of the flaked portion is a circumferential length of the flaked portion, andthe step of calculating the rolling element load at the exit portion of the flaked portion is given by calculating a balance of force corresponding to the circumferential length of the flaked portion. 3. The flaking development analysis method for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing according to claim 2, wherein the step of calculating the development speed of the flaking is given by a crack development speed in which fluctuation in stress at the exit portion of the flaked portion obtained by a finite element analysis using the rolling element load at the exit portion of the flaked portion is set to a stress intensity factor range. 4. The flaking development analysis method for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing according to claim 1, further comprising: a step of outputting, as a remaining lifetime, a remaining time until a shape of the flaked portion specified in advance is obtained. 5. A flaking development analysis device for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing for predicting development of flaking of a raceway ring of a rolling bearing which is to be used in a rotation machine and includes inner and outer raceway rings and rolling elements between the two raceway rings, comprising: a flaking state acquisition unit configured to acquire presence or absence and a shape of flaking of the raceway ring; andan arithmetic unit configured to: calculate, based on at least the acquired shape of the flaked portion, a specification of the rolling bearing, and a working condition of the rolling bearing, a rolling element load acting on a rolling element when the rolling element passes through an exit portion of the flaked portion of the raceway ring taking a shape of the in-progress flaked portion into consideration,calculate, based on the rolling element load at the exit portion of the flaked portion, a development speed of the flaking in which a shape of the in-progress flaked portion is taken into consideration, andcalculate a relationship between an elapsed time and a shape of the flaked portion based on the development speed of the flaking. 6. The flaking development analysis device for a raceway ring of a rolling bearing according to claim 5, wherein the relationship between the elapsed time and the shape of the flaked portion is stored in advance in a storage unit according to a specification of the rolling bearing.