초록 ▼

미래수요를 만족시키는 기상 지진기술의 안정적인 확보와 세계적 선도를 위해 MT(Meteorological Technology) Vision 2025의 후속 초장기 비전보고서로서 MT Vision 2040을 수립함
다양한 미래보고서를 통한 30년 뒤의 미래사회 전망과 국내외 기상기술 비전보고서, 국내 기상 지진기술 현황을 기반으로 하여 SWOT 분석을 수행하고, 이로부터 2040년 MT Vision과 전략 정책과제를 도출함
본 보고서는 "자유로운 일상생활과 지속가능발전을 선도하는 기상.지진기술의 확보"를 2040년 MT

미래수요를 만족시키는 기상 지진기술의 안정적인 확보와 세계적 선도를 위해 MT(Meteorological Technology) Vision 2025의 후속 초장기 비전보고서로서 MT Vision 2040을 수립함
다양한 미래보고서를 통한 30년 뒤의 미래사회 전망과 국내외 기상기술 비전보고서, 국내 기상 지진기술 현황을 기반으로 하여 SWOT 분석을 수행하고, 이로부터 2040년 MT Vision과 전략 정책과제를 도출함
본 보고서는 "자유로운 일상생활과 지속가능발전을 선도하는 기상.지진기술의 확보"를 2040년 MT Vision으로서 제시하고 있음
상기 Vision을 달성하기 위한 전략과제로서 (전략1) 지속가능발전을 선도하는 기후변화예보 구현, (전략2) 국민안전을 위한 자연재해 예측.대응기술 확보, (전략3) 고부가가치를 창출하는 기상예보 구현, (전략4) 미래사회를 위한 첨단 기상 지진기술 확보의 4가지 전략과 각전략에 뒤따르는 12가지 상세전략을 제시함
전략과제의 효과적인 달성을 위해 이를 뒷받침할 수 있는 '전략적 R&D 투자', '부처 간 통합 조정', '국제협력 강화', '전문인력 양성', '민간기상산업 육성'의 5가지 정책과제도 제시함

Abstract ▼

This study presents a long-term vision for meteorological technology and strategic plans to attain this vision. Due to accelerating change in climate, the world's primary interest has been shifting towards the development of meteorological technologies for both economic benefit and societal safety.

This study presents a long-term vision for meteorological technology and strategic plans to attain this vision. Due to accelerating change in climate, the world's primary interest has been shifting towards the development of meteorological technologies for both economic benefit and societal safety. Many advanced countries have developed long-term strategies for meteorological technology (e.g. NWS S&T Infusion Plan 2001; WMO Strategic Plan, 2007). The Korean government also developed "Meteorological Technology Vision 2025", but most of the goals have already been accomplished. This led the Korean Government to plan further for a new long-term vision, namely "Meteorological Vision 2040".
For Vision 2040, PESTLE (Political, Economical, Social, Technological, Legal, and Ecological) and SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat) analysis were used for developing strategy after conducting the future forecast on Korean society around year 2040. PESTLE uses the future key words such as economic growth, aging society, space development, urbanization, climate change, energy, globalization, and high technology.
By 2040, the societal framework will change in many different ways. As GDP per capita in Korea increases up to US$70,000, people's quality of life will also be improved. Most people will have enough time to spare part of their everyday lives on private activities such as leisure and journey. For this successful transition to occur, people will demand for more accurate weather prediction system that has an accuracy of more than 85% under the operation time of more than 7 days. The demands on various weather reports will increase such as aging, development of space technology, use of renewable energy, etc. In addition, through the development of ubiquitous technology, individuals will be able to get personalized weather information. Due to stronger emphasis on globalization, global meteorological information will become more significant. Enhanced climate change will necessitate long-tenn plans for food supply and reliable climate change prediction. However, due to advancement in science and technology as well as other disciplines, they will bring more sophistication and precision in meteorological technology such as weather control technology, space weather prediction, Geo-Engineering, etc. As such, to meet the changing needs of society, the role of the Meterological Administration needs to be expanded.
Korea's observation network is characterized by a highly advanced meteorological technology, especially on the ground-based platform (the resolution is about 15km), although the observation networks for the ocean and the upper atmosphere are less developed. Korea's weather prediction is on a par with that of advanced countries. As the World's second provider of the Point Forecast, Korea presented a Point Forecast service with a resolution of 5km and various time-scaled forecasts, such as 7-day, I-month, seasonal forecasts, etc. Korea's typhoon forecast has produced an estimated error of 229km, just as accurate as Japan (210km) and United States (236km). However, numerical models and supercomputers depend mostly on foreign technology. Air quality prediction is much less accurate than weather prediction. Meteorological Industry is not mature enough to produce high economic value from meteorological information. Korea's seismic observation network is dense enough to cover all of South Korea, but it lacks an early warning system.
By conducting a SWOT analysis, four technology strategies and five supporting policies were identified for Vision 2040. The existing strategies for establishing a meteorological technology vision underscores an accurate prediction of severe weather, risk management, economic development, and climate change, as also being emphasized in "Meteorological Vision 2040". The mission of "Meteorological Vision 2040" is "Meteorological and Seismological Technology for a Free Society and Sustainable Development". The four strategies are: [Strategy 1] Climate change prediction to guide sustainable development, [Strategy 2] Prediction and management of natural disasters to ensure public safety, [Strategy 3] Weather prediction that creates high added value, and [Strategy 4] State-of-the-art meteorological and seismological technologies that meet future needs. The five supporting policies consist of strategic R&D investment, coordination of roles and responsibilities of ministries and offices, enhanced international cooperation, training experts, and fostering private sector meteorology.

목차 Contents

• 1. 개요 ...37
• 1.1 연구배경과 필요성 ...37
• 1.2 연구목표와 추진체계 ...38
• 1.2.1 연구목표 ...38
• 1.2.2 연구추진체계 ...39
• 2. 2040 미래기상기술 전망 ...41
• 2.1 2040 미래사회모습 전망 ...41
• 2.1.1 사회구조와 국민생활양식 변화 ...43
• 2.1.2 기상현상을 적극적으로 활용하는 사회 ...50
• 2.1.3 기후변화 가속화 ...54
• 2.1.4 BT, IT, NT, RT 융합을 통한 기술고도화 ...60
• 2.1.5 세계화의 급속한 진전 ...64
• 2.2 2040 기상기술 수요 전망 ...66
• 2.2.1 언제 어디서나 원하는 기상정보 획득 ...70
• 2.2.2 자연재해의 사회.경제적 피해규모 최소화 ...72
• 2.2.3 응용기상서비스를 통한 새로운 부가가치 생산 ...75
• 2.2.4 기상.지진정보를 완전한 글로벌화 ...78
• 2.2.5 기후변화에 능동적으로 대응할 수 있는 기반 구축 ...79
• 2.2.6 미래 첨단 과학기술을 활용한 기상기술 고도화 ...80
• 3. 국내외 기상기술 장기계획과 미래기술예측 사례 ...81
• 3.1 국내외 장기계획 사례연구 ...81
• 3.1.1 해외사례 ...82
• 3.1.2 국내사례 ...89
• 3.1.3 시사점 ...108
• 3.2 미래기술예측 사례연구 ...112
• 4. 국내 기상.지진기술 현황 ...117
• 4.1 기상관측 ...120
• 4.2 기상관측 ...128
• 4.3 산업기상 ...132
• 4.4 위험기상 ...138
• 4.5 환경기상 ...143
• 4.6 우주기상 ...146
• 4.7 기후변화 ...148
• 4.8 지진.지진해일 ...153
• 5. 전략방향과 전략체계 설계 ...161
• 5.1 미래 기상.지진기술 SWOT 분석 ...161
• 5.2 전략방향 ...162
• 5.3 전략체계 ...164
• 6. 향후 추진과제 ...167
• 6.1 전략과제 ...167
• 6.2 정책과제 ...184
• 7. 참고문헌 ...191
• 부록 ...193