초록 ▼

- 최근 UN 보고서에 의하면 2010년 전 세계적으로 100만 이상의 사람이 거주하는 Megacity는 약 220개에 도달하였으며, 멀지 않은 장래에 대도시의 인구가 2,000만에 도달하는 Metacity가 많이 출현할 것으로 예상되고 있음.
- 이처럼 도시의 비대화, 집중화와 세분화에 따라, 도시 생활환경의 개선 및 기후변화에 따른 삶의 불편함과 자연재해로부터의 불안과 불확실의 최소화, 경제활동과 여가활동의 극대화를 통한 삶의 질 향상과 경제활동의 고부가가치 창출의 실현이 요구되고 있음.
- 이러한 상황에서 대도시와

- 최근 UN 보고서에 의하면 2010년 전 세계적으로 100만 이상의 사람이 거주하는 Megacity는 약 220개에 도달하였으며, 멀지 않은 장래에 대도시의 인구가 2,000만에 도달하는 Metacity가 많이 출현할 것으로 예상되고 있음.
- 이처럼 도시의 비대화, 집중화와 세분화에 따라, 도시 생활환경의 개선 및 기후변화에 따른 삶의 불편함과 자연재해로부터의 불안과 불확실의 최소화, 경제활동과 여가활동의 극대화를 통한 삶의 질 향상과 경제활동의 고부가가치 창출의 실현이 요구되고 있음.
- 이러한 상황에서 대도시와 위성도시간의 밀접한 교류와 물류 소통 및 저탄소 녹색 사회구현 등을 위한 새로운 개념의 종합기상정보지원서비스가 필요함.
- 도시기상정보서비스의 실현을 위해서는 도시기상에 적합한 최적 아중규모관측망 구성 및 활용, 미세 도시기상·기후 진단 및 예측 모델링(Urban Modeling), 수요자 중심의 도시형 기상,기후/기후변화 정보 산출 및 지원 콘텐츠 개발, 도시형 통합기상정보지원큐브 (Cube Service)시스템 및 전달 기술 개발이 필요함.
- 세계최고 수준의 기후변화대응 도시기상기술력 확보와 재해/위험기상에 대한 초고해상도 4차원 감시 • 예측 기술력 확보, 정보 수요자의 니즈 충족을 위한 첨단기술 개발과 정보소통을 위한 플랫폼 구축을 통해 경제성 있는 기상정보의 가치 창출과 재해의 방지 및 자연자원의 효율적 활용을 위한 국가정책수립에 기여하며, 범 국가 간 기후변화 국제협약 대응을 통한 ‘저탄소 녹색성장’의 국가비전을 실현하는 계기를 마련할 수 있음.
- 본 연구에서는 도시기상정보서비스의 B/C분석을 수행하였으며, 조건부가치측정법(CVM)을 사용하여 편익을 실증적으로 추정하였음. 분석결과 도시기상정보서비스의 B/C는 1.4 6～1.56으로 나타났으며, 추가적으로 도시기상정보의 활용을 통해 경제적 가치창출 및 기상산업 증진이 기대됨

Abstract ▼

Urbanization of the world’s population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more

Urbanization of the world’s population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,0005, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid–2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth’'s atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Recently, remnants of Typhoon(No.7) Gonpas moved into Incheon and the Seoul metropolitan area early in the morning of September 02 with the stronger wind and torrential heavy rainfall; The heaviest rainfall expolsively occurred in an area stretching from Gangseo-gu through central Kwanghwamoon area in Seoul with the record-broken amounts in excess of 290 mm for 102 years in some areas as there were widespread disruption of transportation systems (e.g., road closures, flooded subways, airport delays) and significant flooding in several regions from the morning of September 21; but KMA only issued a flash flood warning over 100 mm at 2100 LST. Therefore Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, pre icted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general public, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very–-short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of con inuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned. The opportunity to address urban meteorology is a result of three basic factors: (1) technological advances, (2) concern for national security, and (3) concern for public health and safety. With respect to technology there are included such as several specific urban (and suburban) applications with short-term (three to 18 hours) weather sensitivity with emergency management, homeland security, energy (distribution, operations and generation), road maintenance and operations, traffic management and airport terminal operations; Results to date are sufficiently compelling to enable discussions with local government agencies and private companies for each of these applications in several urban areas in the US; Unfortunately, these interactions are ad hoc and duplicative because no formal mechanisms exist to engage such groups or to transfer technology or services and there is no central clearing house of information for ur an decision makers to become aware of such potential capabilities; Methods are needed to properly validate the utility of such forecasting systems for these applications that traditional meteorological (statistical) verification is not appropriate for many urban applications and true end-user metrics are often ill-defined or simply qualitative at present; Need for a "heads-up" for severe weather event, even with opportunity for phase errors vs. standard zone forecasts, which may be too vague and more focused dissemination since standard meteorological products are a clear mismatch with end-user decision makers, whose expertise is in applications and understanding the impact of weather as opposed to meteorology; Despite promising results to date, improvements are clearly needed in several key areas with improved model representations of boundary layer physics and cloud microphysics, better observing (sampling) strategies coupled with data assimilation to reduce errors in initial conditions and continued advan es in overall system cost-effectiveness (performance, throughput and usability); Further prototyping and development of systems that can be used with confidence is required by end-to-end tailoring for specific application focus (throughput, physics and dissemination) - forecast products when they are needed in the way that they are needed, while R&D continues, deploy now even with limitations, to enable earlier understanding of operational constraints and issues as well as to develop user-oriented metrics, establish additional testbeds for specific urban weather issues or application sensitivity and emphasize further two-way education and collaboration with potential beneficiaries; Appropriate visualization is critical to enable meteorological data to be usable for urban applications which methods are available but not widely utilized, understanding of how weather data need to be used and why (e.g., human factors concerning how users work and interact), understanding of how users perceive and interpret weath r visualizations and data must be made relevant for different classes of users using their terminology, and thus, expressible in terms that can be readily understood in real-time without expert interpretation; Effective coupling to derived modelling and analysis for proactive planning is necessary but much more work needs to be done which meteorology needs to be reasonably correct ("good enough") first, which has been the primary focus for R&D, direct match to relevant physical problem (e.g., pavement, dispersion) and direct match to relevant operational problem (e.g., crew and equipment optimization [scheduling and routing] that is impacted by weather) To check the feasibility of the development of urban meteorology technology in terms of national policy, we review the national policies such as "Science and Technology Basic Plan (577 Initiative)", "National Strategy for Green Growth and Five Year Plan", "Central Promotion Plan for Green Growth" and "National Technology Roadmap", etc., and we find out that t e development of urban meteorology technology conforms with these national policies. Futhermore, the development of urban meteorology technology is related with three development goals and five strategies of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ten assignments for the advancement of meteorology. We also find out that urban meteorology technology can be developed through the cooperation with government organizations, and can be applied to many instances, because this technology has a relation with the visions and strategies of government organizations such as Ministry of Environment, Minister of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, Ministry of Public Administration and Security, Ministry of Health & Welfare, Ministry of National Defense, National Emergency Management Agency, Korea Water Resources Corporation, Korea Land & Housing Corporation, Korea Transportation Safety Authority, Korea Airports Corporation, Korea Electric Power Corporation, and local governments. This urban meteorology technology p ovides urban meteorology information based on four dimensional cube, which is provided by meteorology information system and web site, so that it can support the decision making of related organizations. Moreover, this urban meteorology technology has a possibility of export or technology transfer to other countries through the collaboration or interchange of technologies. The development of information system for urban climate change and high impact weather has high applicability and ripple effects, because it can contribute to the improvement of quality of life of people, the prevention of disaster of government organization, enhancement of competitiveness and creation of new value added of company, and so on. We propose three policy goals of the development of urban meteorology as follows. First, it should support the policy decision making for the sustainable development of city systematically. Second, it should support the policy and management system for the creation of green belt in urban area. Third, it should evaluate the living environment change of city and relieve the problems to response the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We think that urban meteorology technology satisfying three goals have a great deal of influence on people, companies, and government, and it can provides the foundation for the green growth of Korea, because, it can create synergy effects through the collaboration with government organizations and related organizations for the development of green growth related policies and strategies. Moreover, it can provide the information which can be used in keeping balance between the living environment development of city and conservation of nature, establishing national disaster confrontation system for the prevention of natural disaster in urban area, recognizing and preparing disaster or risk due to the climate change in urban area, and so on. Economic benefit from the development of urban meteorology information service is divided into direct and indirect ones. First, direct economic benefit includes expected value added of weather service industry which will be created by urban meteorology information service, and increased life quality of people living in metropolises. Additional value added of weather service industry, measured by market value approach with the survey result of weather service companies, is 23.5∼39.1 billion KRW during the next 10∼20 years from 2020. The present value of increased life quality of citizen, measured by contingent value method (CVM), is estimated as 194.4 billion KRW during same time. Second, indirect economic benefit includes disaster damage reduction and cost saving in weather-sensitive industries. Benefit from disaster damage reduction is calculated by the increased forecast preceding time, the increased damage reduction from the preceded forecast and the annual amount of damage. The result shows that the benefit from disaster damage reduction will be 1.99∼2.64 billion KRW annually. The amount of saved cost in industries, measured by average ontribution of weather service in weather-sensitive industries, is about 3,424 billion KRW annually. The cost-benefit analysis is based on R&D cost and direct economic benefit only. The present value of total R&D cost is 149.2 billion KRW, and the benefit is estimated as 218.0∼233.6 billion KRW, so that B/C ratio is 1.461∼1.566. In sensitivity test to consider uncertainties of market and technology, B/C ratio becomes 1.217∼1.956 under varying conditions.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제출문 ... 3
• 보고서 요약서 ... 5
• 목차 ... 7
• 요약문 ... 13
• SUMMARY ... 20
• 제 1 장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 25
• 제1절 연구배경 ... 25
• 제2절 도시기상의 정의 ... 26
• 제3절 도시기상과 관련된 이슈 ... 26
• 제4절 사업의 필요성 ... 27
• 제5절 연구목적 ... 29
• 제6절 도시기상과 관련한 5가지 이슈 ... 30
• 제 2 장 국내⋅외 기술개발 현황 ... 32
• 제1절 국내의 다양한 도시기상의 사회적 수요 조사 및 기술 진단 ... 32
• 1. 환경, 재해기술 수준 ... 32
• 2. 환경 , 기상 분야 기술평가 ... 33
• 3. 재난 , 재해 분야 ... 35
• 4. 에너지 , 자원 분야 ... 36
• 5. 기술수준 향상 기여요인 ... 38
• 6. 기술수준 향상을 위한 정책제언 ... 38
• 7. 우리나라의 경쟁력 수준 ... 38
• 제2절 도시기상⋅기후변화 대응/완화 기술 개발과 관련된 주요 기술 개발 현황 ... 40
• 1. 기상 수치예보 모델 서비스 관련 현황 ... 40
• 2. 국내 기상 관측 기술 수준 ... 42
• 3. 응용기상 정보 서비스 기술 수준 ... 43
• 제3절 기상기술력 ... 49
• 1. 자연재해저감 분야 ... 49
• 2. 기후예측 변화·적응 분야 ... 50
• 3. 기상산업 분야 핵심기술별 특성 ... 50
• 4. 선진기반 분야 ... 51
• 제4절 국외 도시기상 기술 수준과 동향의 다각적 진단 ... 51
• 1. 미국 ... 51
• 2. 캐나다(Alberta Rwis network) ... 55
• 3. 오스트리아(CityWare) ... 55
• 4. 일본(JMBSC) ... 56
• 5. 재해 기상 관련 수치 모형 및 관측·예보 시스템 ... 57
• 6. 도시기상 관측망 ... 58
• 7. 도시지역에서 건물에 의한 도시의 복잡한 흐름과 모델링 ... 60
• 8. 에너지 적용을 위한 도시 환경에서의 모델링 ... 64
• 9. 도시기후 특성 연구 ... 65
• 제 3 장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 69
• 제1절 사업의 기본 방향 및 전략 ... 69
• 1. 비전과 목표 ... 69
• 2. 사업의 구성 ... 70
• 3. 사업 운영관리 방안 ... 81
• 제2절 기술적 타당성 ... 85
• 1. 전문가 수요조사 결과 ... 85
• 2. 도시기상 기술에 대한 SWOT 분석 ... 87
• 제3절 경제적 타당성 ... 89
• 1. 도시기상 서비스로부터 발생하는 경제적 편익 ... 89
• 2. 직접적 경제적 편익 분석 ... 90
• 3. 간접적 경제적 편익 분석 ... 96
• 4. 경제성 분석 ... 109
• 제4절 정책적 타당성 ... 112
• 1. 상위계획과 부합성 ... 112
• 2. 기상청의 비전 및 추진전략과의 부합성 ... 114
• 3. 부처간 중장기 비전과 연계성 ... 115
• 4. 정책적 제안 ... 121
• 제 4 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 및 기대효과 ... 124
• 제1절 연구개발 활용계획 ... 124
• 제2절 기대효과 ... 125
• 1. 기술적 기대효과 ... 125
• 2. 경제적 기대효과 ... 125
• 3. 정책적 기대효과 ... 126
• 제 5 장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 128
• 참고문헌 ... 174
• (부 록-1) 수요객관화(기상스크랩) ... 177
• (부 록-2) 도시기상 기술수요조사 설문지 ... 189
• (부 록-3) 기술수요조사 설문 결과 요약 ... 193
• (부 록-4) 민간 기상사업자 대상 설문지 ... 199
• (부 록-5) 조건부가치평가방법 설문지 ... 203