초록 ▼

○ 본 연구의 목적은 Post-2012 기후체제에 대응하여 측정·보고·검증(MRV) 가능한 선진국 수준의 산림부문 온실가스 인벤토리 및 탄소계정 체계를 개발하는 데 있음.
○ 제5차 국가산림자원조사 결과를 활용하여 임상 및 수종별 임목축적 등 활동자료를 정립하였으며, 기본통계 수집체계 개선을 통하여 산림의 토지이용변화 자료를 확보함.
○ 국가 고유 흡수/배출계수의 활용을 목표로 18개 산림 수종과 5개 도시녹지 수종에 대한 고유 흡수/배출계수를 개발하였으며, 8개 수종은 국가 인벤토리 활용을 위한 검증을 요청함.
○

○ 본 연구의 목적은 Post-2012 기후체제에 대응하여 측정·보고·검증(MRV) 가능한 선진국 수준의 산림부문 온실가스 인벤토리 및 탄소계정 체계를 개발하는 데 있음.
○ 제5차 국가산림자원조사 결과를 활용하여 임상 및 수종별 임목축적 등 활동자료를 정립하였으며, 기본통계 수집체계 개선을 통하여 산림의 토지이용변화 자료를 확보함.
○ 국가 고유 흡수/배출계수의 활용을 목표로 18개 산림 수종과 5개 도시녹지 수종에 대한 고유 흡수/배출계수를 개발하였으며, 8개 수종은 국가 인벤토리 활용을 위한 검증을 요청함.
○ 새로운 국가산림자원조사 통계자료를 국가 온실가스 인벤토리 활동자료로 활용하기 위한 방안을 제시하였으며, 자연교란 및 Non-CO2 배출 관련 활동자료를 DB로 개발함.
○ 산림경영 탄소계정을 위하여 최대시업면적법을 적용한 산림경영율 추정방안을 개발하였으며, 기존의 국/사유림 경영정보시스템 및 산림자원통합관리시스템을 활용한 모니터링 방안을 제시함.
○ 국가 고유 산림토양탄소모델을 임상별로 개발하여 국가수준의 고사유기물 및 토양탄소량을 추정하였으며, 이를 국가 온실가스 인벤토리에 시범 반영함.
○ 활동자료, 흡수/배출계수 및 온실가스 배출량에 대한 불확도를 평가하였으며, 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 방법에 기반한 온실가스 인벤토리 불확도 평가 프로그램을 개발함.
○ 온실가스 인벤토리를 재계산한 결과 약 1.4배 증가하였으며, QA/QC 활동 이행 및 신뢰도 제고를 위한 방안으로 산림부문 온실가스 인벤토리 총괄관리체계를 제안함.
○ 지자체 온실가스 인벤토리 산정 결과, 강원도 901만t CO2(22.7%), 경상북도 820만t CO2(20.7%), 전라남도 450만t CO2(11.3%) 순으로 순 흡수하는 것으로 나타남.
○ 2010년에 우리나라 산림은 3,964만t CO2를 순 흡수하였고, 산림탄소배출권 잠재력은 0~3,302만t CO2의 범위로 추정됨.

Abstract ▼

Ⅳ. Results
1. International negotiation for Climate Change
Under UNFCCC, every Parties(except Least-Developed Countries) have to submit a National Report in 3 years after ratification of Kyoto protocol and have mandatory to submit periodically. However, only Republic of Korea, Mexico, and Urug

Ⅳ. Results
1. International negotiation for Climate Change
Under UNFCCC, every Parties(except Least-Developed Countries) have to submit a National Report in 3 years after ratification of Kyoto protocol and have mandatory to submit periodically. However, only Republic of Korea, Mexico, and Uruguay fulfilled those responsibility. To overcome this situation, at the 16th COP in Cancun(2010) decided to reform the National Communication system to submit National Report in every 4 years with Biennial update report(BUR) in every 2 years(1st Submission: December 2014). Moreover, there was a decision to strengthen MRV system of developing countries’ emission removal activities. Developing countries have to receive international consultation and analysis(ICA) for their Biennial update report by this decisioin. The related work will be done by SBI. Developed countries are also responsible to receive international assessment and review(IAR) for there biennial report(BR).
The 17th UNFCCC COP(2011) agreed to maintain Kyoto Protocol scheme for 2nd commitment period(2013～2020) and decide to adopt revised LULUCF Carbon Accounting Guidance(Decision 2/CMP.7). This revised guidance is very important decision among recent decisions about forestry because it will be used for detail guidance for LULUCF in 2nd commitment period.
Main contents of revision is as below. First, forest management became mandatory which before was optional, and accounting method changed from using 85% discount rate to using forest management reference level(FMRL). Second, harvested wood product is newly added to carbon storage category, thus emission/removal of wood product produced and consumed in country has to be calculated. Third, emission from irresistible natural disasters is excluded from carbon accounting. Besides this, emissions from resto of natural disaster will be taken into account by using background level. Moreover, management activities for Wetland drainage and re-wetting is recognised as LULUCF additional reduction. Decision to apply Forest Management Reference Level was achieved through technology assessment on Forest Management Reference Level which was submitted by Annex 1 countries. Our research team was also involved in this technology assessment.
IPCC will undertake reviewing and improving Methodology for Carbon accounting on Kyoto Protocol article 3.3 and 3.4 activities in 2012, and will submit revision of LULUCF Good Practice Guidance(2003) to 19th UNFCCC COP(2013).
To review future feasibility of 2006 Guideline, we analysed application cases in major countries. Major countries showed differences in applying 2006 Guideline on Country level GHG inventory in LULUCF area because of the context of country and the choice of methodology. United States applied 2006 Guideline on most of emission/removal source in LULUCF area. The other countries who applied 2006 Guideline, showed limited application in inventory of wetland, Non-CO₂, HWP etc. The extent of applying 2006 Guideline will be decided whether LULUCF inventory has completeness in each country. Korea also have to prepared to various approaches related to this issue.
2. National specific emissions/removals factors
To calculate the national inventory for forestry, it is necessary to have both activity data and emission/removal factor, which convert emission or removal stock to GHG. Country-specific emission/removal factor in forestry, which has been conducted by related research of early in 2000, has been developed for an eighteen-species until now. However emission/removal factor haven’t used for calculating national inventory for forestry until now. It is now on the process of approval for country-specific emission/removal factor.
In summary, the average the basic wood density(g/cm3) of softwood was estimated to be ranged from 0.347 to 0.504; hardwood was estimated to be ranged from 0.363 to 0.833, respectively. Showing a general tendency for Quercus acuta to be the highest e.g., 0.833, for Cryptomeria japonica to be the lowest e.g., 0.347. The average the biomass expansion factor of softwood was estimated to be ranged from 1.313 to 1.742; hardwood was estimated to be ranged from 1.174 to 1.702, respectively. Showing a general tendency for Pinus koraiensis to be the highest e.g., 1.742, for Populus tomentiglandulosa to be the lowest e.g., 1.174. The average the root-shoot ratio of softwood was estimated to be ranged from 0.164 to 0.625; hardwood was estimated to be ranged from 0.203 to 0.362, respectively. Showing a general tendency for Castanopsis cuspidata to be the highest e.g., 0.625, for Populus tomentiglandulosa to be the lowest e.g., 0.164. Although the emission/removal factor for soil, litter, and dead wood was developed, there was insufficient factor for country-specific. Therefore, these are inculded and used for developing forest soil carbon model.
There are two method to deal with a calculation of carbon stock i.e., using of emission/removal factor, and using allometric equation. Due to difficult to evaluation of emission/removal factor, calculation of carbon stock for settlement, and bamboo stand, there are generally used to allometric equation. To calculate emissions/removals of the settlement and bamboo stand in the future, estimated the biomass of three species in bamboo , and two species in settlement by developing allometric equation. Moreover, we had developed the allometric equation for 18 species in Korea and compared the emissions/removals result from the allometirc equation to emission/removal factor. Some species showed significant difference by the calculation methodology.
We need exact calculation of damage area, combustion of forest fuel at damaged region, efficiency of combution and emission factor for emission estimation of Non CO₂. Great deal of active data using high resolution is set up in Korea but for combustion efficiency and emission factor, it is difficult to utilize default value of IPCC which led to propose each forest type by inherent emission factor of CO₂, CO, CH₄, N₂O.
3. Forest activity data
Forest fire statistics by Korea Forest Service has been often used for active data of forest fire. To manage activity data from 1991, Forest Fire Position Information System were established. Forest fire statistics by Korea Forest Service is recording and managing very detailed contents which is very valuable but for more accurate estimation of inventory we analyzed damage area and damage strength at 7 large scale forest fire district(Ulzin, Pohang, Sanchung, Goryung, Yechoen, Youngduk) using normal carbonization index of the satellite image. Damaged areas of forest fire at certain areas(Yechoen, Pohang) has showed difference between damaged area analyzed by satellite image and actual reported area. By the result of researching the forest fuel of each district, the forest fuel of coniferous(pine tree) was 6275 ton/ha which was less than 7∼331 ton/ha of deciduous(oak tree). By district, coniferous(11∼187 ton/ha) of Chungbuk district had the least and deciduous(46∼331 ton/ha) of Jeonbuk had the most forest fuel.
4. Development of national specific forest soil carbon model
As a part of constructing forest carbon accounting system, we developed Korean Forest Soil Carbon model (KFSC). We examined applications of the foreign developed soil carbon models in Korea. However, differences in forest environments and high levels of input data were found. Our model was designed to estimate forest soil carbon with simple input data, considering the situation that there is little forest data in Korea. The developed model simulates the following process; carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is fixed as biomass, biomass is converted to dead organic matter, dead organic matter is decayed to humus, humus is decayed to soil carbon, and soil carbon is decomposed to atmospheric carbon. We also conducted field works on pine and oak stands in three regions as age classes. As a result, we constructed parameters and input data for running the model; soil carbon stocks (soil, litter, dead wood), annual litter input, carbon density in litter, litter decomposition rate, and so on. In addition, we conducted validation on 6 pine stands of Gwangneung in Kyonggi province by comparing the observed value and the expected value of soil carbon stock. The model showed high accuracy (98%) compared to YASSO (84%). Furthermore, we simulated soil carbon with forest harvest and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. And, we applied the developed parameters from field work to estimate soil carbon (depth 0-50cm) in coniferous and deciduous forests in Korea. The estimated value (346-374Tg C) seemed reasonable. Finally, we simulated a succession scenario (decrease of pine forest and increase of oak forest under climate change) on the model. From the result of simulation, soil carbon stock is expected continuously increases in oak and decreases in pine. However, 100 years later the total forest soil carbon stock was estimated to 370Tg C, which is similar to the present value.
5. Cross-cutting issues
To establish a proper uncertainty evaluation system for Activity data, emission/removal factor and GHG inventory relevant data was used to test two kinds of uncertainty evaluation system. Activity data about the loss collected by National Forest Inventory(NFI) and Forestry Statistics which is important baseline data is unable to conduct uncertainty evaluation. Therefore by major countries and experts judgement, uncertainty of activity data was analyzed as less than 10%. By using error propagation approach, uncertainty value of emission/removal factor by species was evaluated and proposed. By using Monte Carlo simulation method, uncertainty value of GHG inventory was evaluated and proposed. To evaluate, uncertainty value of activity data and emission/removal factor was applied and uncertainty evaluation program based on Program-R was developed.
Consistency of activity data of current national GHG inventory for forest sector has damaged because of changes in Forest Resource Assessment system since 2006. Used recalculation to maintain consistency in time series of activity data and national GHG inventory. For the activity data, overlap is most proper method among 4 method from IPCC in the context of Korea. To recalculate used constant ratio for detail by activity data(Forestry Statistics, 5th National Forest Resource Assessment). Additionally developed specific emission/removal factor was adopted and GHG inventory of forestry sector resulted in 55,281,000 t CO₂(2009). It means net emissions was evaluated 1.4 times higher than former result which is 3,952,000 t CO₂.
To establish a QA/QC activity system, we proposed ‘General Management System for GHG inventory of Forest Sector’ which includes not only research, analyze and development process relevant to activity data and emission/removal factor, but also calculation, review and approval process of inventory. Moreover we supported the government on developing national GHG inventory QA/QC checklist, implemented QA/QC activity and submitted result report.
6. Sub-national greenhouse gas inventory
This research developed calculating methods for greenhouse gas inventory of forest sector on local scale based on consistency in methodological issues of national greenhouse gas inventory and provided its application results. Particularly, this research supplemented emissions from biomass losses including forest fire, natural damages and illegal deforestation and activity data of non-CO₂ and established a data base. So far these data was not include to the inventory due to unavailability in sub-national level or inaccuracy of activity data. As the results of local greenhouse gas inventory of forest sector, net removals were estimated at 9,014,000 t CO₂ of Gangwon-do (22.7 %), 8,201 kt CO₂ of Gyeongbuk-do (20.7 %) and 4,496,000 t CO₂ of Jeonnam-do (11.3 %) as of 2010. Also, we presented that these results were produced as a distribution map for local greenhouse gas emissions and removals of forest sector. A manual of the developed methods and established database of activity data to make well use of the results on local governments.
7. Estimation of GHG inventory and carbon credits potential
By analyzing current status and trend of GHG statistics under UNFCCC, forest of Korea has been net removed 39.64million t CO₂/year(2010). Particularly, coniferous forest removed 23.07 million t CO₂ and deciduous forest removed 16.57 million t CO₂ while the total amount of CO₂ removals in Korea is 47.07 million t CO₂. The total amount of emissions from logging or etc. is 7.42 million t CO₂. This result is included in the 3rd National Report and reported to UNFCCC.
To recognize potential of carbon credit from forest sector under Kyoto Protocol, estimated the potential of carbon credit using Forest Management Reference Level(FMRL) according to revised LULUCF carbon accounting guidance. This research has proposed FMRL of Korea according to 5 methodologies(emission standard in 1990, mean emission standard in past, future emission standard, extrapolation estimation standard, FMRL=0) from analyzing FMRL setting methodology of Annex I countries. The potential of carbon credit from forest of Korea resulted as 0～33.02 million t CO₂.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제 출 문 ... 3
• 보고서 요약서 ... 5
• 요 약 문 ... 7
• SUMMARY ... 15
• 목 차 ... 23
• 표 목차 ... 25
• 그림 목차 ... 29
• 부록 목차 ... 34
• 제 1 장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 35
• 제 1절 연구배경 및 목적 ... 37
• 제 2절 연구의 범위 ... 39
• 제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 41
• 제 1절 국외 기술 개발 현황 ... 43
• 제 2절 국내 기술 개발 현황 ... 44
• 제 3 장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 47
• 제1세부과제 : 국제회의 논의 동향 및 주요국 대응 분석 ... 49
• 제 1절 Post-2012 관련 산림부문 통계 국제지침 동향 분석 ... 49
• 제 2절 주요국의 사례 분석 ... 61
• 제2세부과제 : 국가 고유 흡수/배출계수 정립 ... 69
• 제 1절 바이오매스 관련 흡수/배출계수 ... 69
• 제 2절 산불에 따른 Non-CO2 배출계수 ... 84
• 제3세부과제 : 산림 활동자료 정립 ... 89
• 제 1절 산림관련 토지이용 현황 및 변화 자료 ... 89
• 제 2절 임목 축적 현황 및 변화 자료 ... 112
• 제 3절 산불 피해 면적 및 축적 자료 ... 115
• 제 4절 산림경영율 추정 방안 도출 ... 141
• 제4세부과제 : 산림 토양탄소모델 개발 ... 171
• 제 1절 선진국 범용 모델의 검토 ... 172
• 제 2절 한국형 산림토양탄소모델 개발 ... 185
• 제 3절 고유 파라미터 개발 ... 205
• 제 4절 모델의 적용 및 결과 ... 222
• 제5세부과제 : Cross-cutting Issues ... 247
• 제 1절 흡수/배출계수 및 배출량 불확도 평가 체계 구축 ... 247
• 제 2절 시계열 일관성 유지를 위한 재계산 체계 구축 ... 255
• 제 3절 신뢰도 제고를 위한 QA/QC 활동 체계 구축 ... 264
• 제6세부과제 : 지자체 온실가스 인벤토리 체계 구축 ... 275
• 제 1절 지자체별 온실가스 기본 통계 현황 ... 275
• 제 2절 지자체별 온실가스 통계량 ... 283
• 제 3절 산림부문 온실가스 통계량 분포 지도 작성 ... 311
• 제 4절 지자체 산림부문 온실가스 인벤토리 작성 매뉴얼 작성 및 보급 ... 314
• 제7세부과제 : 국가 온실가스 인벤토리 작성 및 산림 탄소배출권 잠재력 분석 ... 315
• 제 1절 UNFCCC 대응 산림부문 온실가스 인벤토리 작성 ... 315
• 제 2절 Post-2012 대응 산림부문 탄소배출권 잠재력 분석 ... 339
• 제 4 장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 349
• 제 5 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 353
• 제 6 장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 357
• 제 7장 참고문헌 ... 363
• 끝페이지 ... 480