초록 ▼

Ⅳ. 연구개발결과
기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향을 모의실험하여 분석한 결과, RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오 상에서 생산량은 베이스라인에 비해 2050년에 26.1%p 더 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또, 쌀 자급률은 29.5%p 더 감소한 47.3%로 식량안보 문제가 발생할 것으로 전망된다. 이상기상이 쌀단수에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 이상고온과 이상다우 현상이 동시에 발생할 경우 쌀 단수는 8.8～20.8% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 리카디언 모델 분석 결과, 평균온도 변화에 대해서 논 및 밭의 가격이 각각 7%,

Ⅳ. 연구개발결과
기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향을 모의실험하여 분석한 결과, RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오 상에서 생산량은 베이스라인에 비해 2050년에 26.1%p 더 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또, 쌀 자급률은 29.5%p 더 감소한 47.3%로 식량안보 문제가 발생할 것으로 전망된다. 이상기상이 쌀단수에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 이상고온과 이상다우 현상이 동시에 발생할 경우 쌀 단수는 8.8～20.8% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 리카디언 모델 분석 결과, 평균온도 변화에 대해서 논 및 밭의 가격이 각각 7%, 11% 정도 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 농업부문의 작물생육모델 분석 결과, RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오 상에서 운광벼 품종의 경우 베이스라인(598.4kg/10a)에 비해 2065년에 4.0% 감소하는 것으로 전망되었다. 기후변화가 산림생장에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 2050년 기준으로 평균적으로 ha당 -5.35m3의 재적 감소가 있을 것으로 추정되었다. 우리나라 식중독(장염) 발생을 예측 결과, 24.3℃ 이후 기온 1℃상승에 5.7건이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.
국내산 열대/아열대 작목(망고) 소비의향 요인을 분석한 결과, 소득, 기온상승 인지, 안전성 수준 인식, 가격대비 품질만족도 인식 등이 소비의향에 유의한 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또, 우리나라 시군을 대상으로 기후변화에 따른 농업부문의 취약성을 평가한 결과, 제주시, 남양주시, 서귀포시, 천안시, 진주시 등이 취약성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이들 지역은 민감도가 매우 높거나 적응능력이 크게 낮은 지역들이다. 따라서 이들 지역을 중심으로 경제적 능력과 거버넌스를 보완하고 지역의 높은 기후노출과 민감도를 반영한 농업부문의 기후변화 대책을 수립할 필요가 있다. 산림부문의 취약성을 평가한 결과, 2050년 기준 기후변화 취약이 심각한 지역으로 남해안과 동해안인 것으로 나타났다. 또 수산부문의 취약성 평가 결과, 지역별로는 경남, 경북, 부산, 전남, 강원 등 동남해권이, 연근해 업종별로는 장어통발, 기선권현망 등이 취약성이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 기후변화가 국내 쌀 생산량에 미치는 영향을 메타분석 방법론을 적용하여 분석한 결과, RCP 시나리오상 6.0이 쌀 생산량에 영향을 미치며, 적응방안 중 품종 변경보다 파종 시기 변경이 보다 효과적인 방안으로 분석되었다.
기후변화 적응 기술개발의 우선순위 결정을 위한 AHP 분석결과, 영향평가의 경우‘기상재해 발생 모니터링 및 농림수산식품 기상재해 DB 구축’이 가장 높게 계측되었다. 적응기술의 경우 ’농림수산 돌발병해충 및 질병 조기진단 기술 개발‘이, 피해방지 및 기반구축의 경우 ‘이상기상(폭염, 강풍, 폭설, 가뭄 등) 조기경보시스템 구축’이 가장 높게 계측되었다.

Abstract ▼

Research Backgrounds
As climate change has an adverse impact and world’s population is growing, an emphasis is laid on the importance of food security to survive skyrocketing food prices and food used as a weapon. In particular, disasters in the agricultural sector and fluctuating agricultural pr

Research Backgrounds
As climate change has an adverse impact and world’s population is growing, an emphasis is laid on the importance of food security to survive skyrocketing food prices and food used as a weapon. In particular, disasters in the agricultural sector and fluctuating agricultural product prices due to frequent unusual weather events have a great impact on farm household income. Because the agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors which are more weather-dependent than industry are sensitive to climate change, it is necessary to establish a systematic, gradual strategy based on scientific impact analysis of the impact of climate change. In Korea, no systematic studies have been done to generalize and analyze the impact of climate change and suggest a strategy for developing technology for the agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors. Therefore, an important emerging task is to comprehensively study the effect of new climate change scenarios. Effective and systematic adaptation to climate change in the agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors needs comprehensive diagnosis and assessment of the impact of climate change in the agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors. The strategy to establish a reliable and appropriate impact analysis model and develop technology for each sector is an important factor to develop a policy for adaptation to climate change and mitigation of the impact.
Research Methodologies
Prior studies about analysis of the impact of climate change in the agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors were reviewed to examine theories and methods of analyzing long-term prospects. This was followed by analyzing the simulation model for food supply analysis following climate change in connection with crop yield forecasting by means of the CERES-Rice model and the KASMO model in order to estimate yields of major grains and food supply and demand on a midand long-term basis. The panel analysis-random effect model was used to analyze the impact of unusual weather events on rice yields. The Ricardian model was used to examine changes in farmland prices following climate change. The crop growth models were used to analyze the impact of climate change on producing major crops. For the forestry sector, the model analysis method was used to analyze changes of geographical distribution of forest vegetation and the impact of climate change on forest growth. For the fishery sector, the method of socio-economic impact analysis by climate change was used. For the food sector, the method of predicting and analyzing food poisoning due to climate change was used. The quantitative analysis method was used to analyze the tropical/subtropical crop market adapted to climate change. The vulnerability assessment analysis method was used to assess vulnerability of agricultural, fishery and forestry sectors. The meta analysis method was used to analyze the impact of climate change on Korea’s rice production. The AHP analysis method was used to prioritize technology development to adapt to climate change.
Results and Implications
The analysis of food supply analysis simulation model following climate change reveals a production decrease by 26.1%p in 2050 in the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario in comparison with the baseline. Rice self-sufficiency decreases by 47.3% which is 29.5%p smaller than the baseline to suggest a food security issue. The analysis of impact by unusual weather events on rice yields reveals a rice yield decrease by 8.8～20.8% if unusual high temperature and unusual heavy rainfalls concurrently occur. The analysis with the Ricardian Model reveals paddy and field price drops of approximately 7% and 11%, respectively, in connection with average temperature changes. The analysis of crop growth model in the agriculture sector reveals an Unkwangbyeo decrease of 4.0% in 2065 in comparison with the baseline (598.4kg/10a) in the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The analysis of impact of climate change on forest growth reveals a decrease of -5.35m3 per ha on the average on the basis of 2050. Food poisoning (enteritis) outbreaks are predicted to increase by 5.7 as each 1℃ rises above 24.3℃. The analysis of factors about consumption of tropical/subtropical crops (mango) produced in Korea reveals a significant positive effect on consumption by increased income, recognition of temperature rise, recognition of safety, and recognition of good quality relative to prices. The analysis of vulnerability of the agricultural sector following climate change reveals high vulnerability in Jeju, Namyangju, Seoguipo, Cheonan and Jinju, Korea. These areas are highly sensitive or significantly low capacity of adaptation to climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a strategy to adapt to climate change in agriculture, which reflects high exposure and sensitivity to unusual weather events in order to improve economic capacity and governance. The analysis of vulnerability in the forestry sector reveals the areas highly vulnerable to climate change include south coast and east cost. The analysis of vulnerability in the fishery sector reveals that the areas vulnerable to climate change include the southeastern sea of Georginam, Gyeongbuk, Busan, Jeonnam and Gangwon, and vulnerable fishing techniques in coastal and off-shore fishing include sea eel potting and powered anchovy dragnetting. The meta analysis method used to analyze the impact of climate change on rice production in Korea reveals 6.0 in the RCP scenario has an impact on rice production, and changing seeding period is more effective than changing varieties to adapt to climate change. The AHP analysis to prioritize technology development to adapt to climate change reveals the highest priority is for ‘monitoring of weather disasters and building of DB on agri-food, forestry and fishery sectors’ With respect to adaptation technology, the highest priority is for ‘developing technology of diagnosing early of outbreaking pest and diseases’ With respect to damage prevention and establishing a basis, the highest priority is for ‘building of early warning system in response to extreme weather’.