초록 ▼

세부1 추진과제
- 화산분화 전조현상과 관련한 전리층 물리지표 산출 통계처리 기법 개발
- 구축된 DB 자료에 적용하여 물리지표의 유효성 및 신뢰도 검증 연구
- 시범(데모)용 실시간 화산분화 전조현상 및 예보 시스템(안) 작성
- 유효성 검증을 통한 관측 시스템 (지상 및 저궤도 인공위성 탑재체)구성제안
세부2 추진과제
- 백두산 지역의 지오이드 변화와 마그마 활동 및 화산분출 간의 상관관계에 대한 연구
- CHAMP 인공위성 지자기장 데이터를 이용한 마그마 활동과 자력 변화의 관계 해석 시도

세부1 추진과제
- 화산분화 전조현상과 관련한 전리층 물리지표 산출 통계처리 기법 개발
- 구축된 DB 자료에 적용하여 물리지표의 유효성 및 신뢰도 검증 연구
- 시범(데모)용 실시간 화산분화 전조현상 및 예보 시스템(안) 작성
- 유효성 검증을 통한 관측 시스템 (지상 및 저궤도 인공위성 탑재체)구성제안
세부2 추진과제
- 백두산 지역의 지오이드 변화와 마그마 활동 및 화산분출 간의 상관관계에 대한 연구
- CHAMP 인공위성 지자기장 데이터를 이용한 마그마 활동과 자력 변화의 관계 해석 시도
- 백두산 혹은 대규모 화산의 마그마 챔버의 변화 양상 추적
- 중력/지오이드, 자력 변화와 화산 마그마 챔버의 활동간 의 상관관계를 이용한 화산감시 모니터링 가능성과 예보기술의 개발 방안 도출

Abstract ▼

Ⅱ. Objectives of the Research and Development
Research Objective of the first part of the project
● Development of the volcano surveillance and forecasting technology with using satellite data
- To develop volcano eruption surveillance and forecasting with using electromagnetic and plasma m

Ⅱ. Objectives of the Research and Development
Research Objective of the first part of the project
● Development of the volcano surveillance and forecasting technology with using satellite data
- To develop volcano eruption surveillance and forecasting with using electromagnetic and plasma measurement data of low earth orbit satellites (application of DEMETER satellite data)
- To perform basic research on the ionospheric coupling processes related to the precursory phenomena of the volcano eruptions and earthquake occurrences
- To establish a database of the satellite measurements related to Jangbai San (Baikdu Mountain) volcano.
Research Objective of the second part of the project
● Examination on the magma chamber structure and development of the volcano eruption forecasting algorithm with using GRACE/CHAMP
- To establish a basis for volcano eruption and forecasting technology through examination and change monitoring Baikdu mountain or large scale valcano magma chamber
- To develop technology to monitor volcanic activity using geoid, magnetic field and gravity
- To investigate the current state of Baikdu Mountain
Ⅲ. Summary of the Research
● Since the direct observation of the ground Baekdu volcanic environment is not possible, it is inevitable to use remote sensing methods using small satellites and ground observations and measurements such as seismic data in the vicinity of Mount Baekdu neighbors (China) for effective observation and prediction of the volcanic eruption and ionosphere-site observation method. Current situation in neighboring countries, considering cooperation with the accessibility for observation equipment installed and operated on-site Baekdu area is limited, needs a scientific way to observe the volcano eruption precursor phenomena. France is using the DEMETER satellite to develop technologies that can predict earthquakes and volcanic eruptions prior to the occurrence and to prepare natural disasters by establishing the relevant data on the global observations. In this research, we utilized the DEMETER plasma measurement data to investigate the possible lithosphere-ionosphere coupling process and its application to the precursor detection of the volcanoes and earthquakes. The analysis on the using plasma measurement was performed in two different ways. One is case studies and the other is statistical analysis. First, the global distribution of the volcano and earthquake was analysed based on the seismic activity database. According to the analysis, the necessity to investigate the earthquake effects on the ionosphere as well as volcano emerged since the locations of the frequent earthquakes coincide with those of volcanos in general. Typical earthquake effects were found for several earthquakes including Sumatra earthquake, Pisco earthquake, Honshu earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake, etc. The common features found from the cases were quantified as an ionospheric anomaly index and applied to the statistical study based on the DEMETER observations. The statistical study showed the ionospheric anomaly do exist before earthquakes and volcano occurs. Similar case studies around the time of large volcano eruptions located in the vicinity of Baekdu mountain were performed in parallel. The ionospheric anomalies before the eruptions of Bulusan, Merapi, Kirishima, and Tungurawha volcanos that erupted during the operation period of DEMETER. According to the investigations, the ionospheric parameters along the satellite passes close to Baekdu mountain did not show significant anomalous behavior during the six-year operation period (2005-2010). In addition to satellite measurement, the total electron contents derived from the ground GPS stations were investigated to see if there existed ionospheric anomalies around volcano eruptions. While there seem to exist ionospheric abnormal increases in TEC before volcano eruptions occurred in the last decade, there are not clear anomaly related with Baekdu mountain except some anomalies caused by the solar activity and geomagnetic disturbances.
● One of the purposes of the present research is to provide theoretical basis for the ionospheric disturbances that occur as precursors of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. To achieve the purpose, we investigated the basic theories about ionospheric plasma disturbances and waves. Also, we investigated the plasma disturbances that occur prior to earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. We performed basic studies about ionospheric numerical simulations that can be applied to understand physical mechanisms of the ionospheric precursors of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Finally we investaged the plasma disturbances associated with high-speed solar wind streams and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the previous studies often the ionospheric disturbances or waves that occur in relation with the solar and geomagnetic activities have not been considered. However, plasma disturbances related with various sources can simultaneously occur. Thus, to clearly understand the ionospheric precursors is necessary to distinguish the sources of the disturbances and understand the physical mechanisms. Analysis of the materials related with the ionospheric disturbances shows that space environments produce four representative ionospheric disturbances: Equatorial Ionization Anomaly(EIA), Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TID), Plasma Bubbles/Blobs, and Stormtime Ionospheric Disturbances. Prior to the occurrence of earthquakes plasma density fluctuations and various plasma waves can occur. We analyzed an ionospheric numerical simulation model (SAMI2 model), which can be used to investigate the physical mechanism of the ionospheric disturbances associated with the precursors of earthquakes or vocanic eruptions. We also investigated the ionospheric disturbances due to high-speed solar wind streams using the DEMETER observations. It is found that plasma density around the magnetic equator in the ionosphere tends to increase as the high-speed solar wind streams pass through Earth's magnetosphere. The disturbances occurred differently in the regions with different longitudes and most significantly occurred in the region with longitudes 180o~240o. Also, the disturbances showed the seasonal dependence. In winter in the northern hemisphere the density increase occurred most significantly, but there was no increase in summer. These results can be used as a physical basis to understand the ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
● Recently, the possibility of eruption of the Baekdu Mt. is reported but it is difficult to evaluate the possibility because it is difficult or almost impossible to get data which is necessary for the evaluation due to its location at the boundary between China and North Korea. The research using Satellite data is very valuable for scientific monitoring in the areas which are difficult to approach due to geopolitical problem and need long term periodic monitoring. Therefore the geoid calculated from the gravity data obtained by satellite is very useful for carrying out research on magma activity under volcano and monitoring the possibility of a volcanic eruption in the Baekdu Mt. area which is difficult to approach due to geopolitical problem. We use the global gravity field data set EGM2008 for 3-D crustal density modeling of the Mount Baekdu stratovolcano and surrounding area located on the border between North Korea and China. Curvature analysis and Euler deconvolution are used to assist interpretation, and the 3-D model is constrained by multiple geological and geophysical data sets. Mount Baekdu is characterized by a low Bouguer anomaly of -110 × 10^-5 m/s², which is caused by the combined gravity effects of (1) a depth to the Moho of about 40 km, (2) a zone with lower P wave velocity and density than the surrounding, (3) low density volcanic rocks on the surface, and (4) the presence of a magma chamber that has not previously been identified. The modeled magma chamber has a mean thickness of 5 km and a density of about 2350 kg/㎥ and is located <10 km from the surface. Magma chambers are also modeled beneath Mount Wangtian and Mount Nampotae. However, the results of the 3-D density modeling do not confirm the existence of a previously proposed midcrustal low-velocity zone in the area 70 km to the north of Mount Baekdu. Since the Pliocene, volcanic activity in the Mount Baekdu region has migrated from the east coast of North Korea to the northwest, following the path of NW-SE trending faults. The variations of geoid measured by GRACE satellite are investigated in the 20 volcanic areas erupted since 2000, and it is recognized that a detailed geological study is necessary in using geoid data for a research of the magmatic activities under the volcano. Therefore, the relationship between the regional geoid variation obtained by GRACE satellite and the change of magma activity, is studied in Japan’s Shinmoedake volcano in the Kirishima volcanic complex whose eruption in 2011 was studied in detail geologically. Throughout this study the increase of geoid from 2002 in the Shinmoedake volcanic area is confirmed to be caused by the increase of gravity under the volcano, which is well matched with geological interpretation of the continuous intrusion of basaltic magma into magma chamber during several years before the 2011 eruption. The result indicates that information of the geoid variation measured by GRACE satellite is useful for monitoring the possibility of volcanic eruption although there is a need to more study to be able to confirm the possibility.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제 출 문 ... 2
• 보고서 요약서 ... 3
• 요 약 문 ... 4
• SUMMARY ... 15
• CONTENTS ... 20
• 목차 ... 21
• 제 1 장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 22
• 1절. 연구개발의 목적 ... 22
• 2절. 연구개발의 필요성 ... 24
• 3절. 연구개발의 목표 ... 28
• 제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 29
• 1절. 국내의 기술개발 현황 ... 29
• 2절. 국외의 기술개발 현황 ... 33
• 제 3 장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 43
• 1절. 연구개발의 이론적, 실험적 접근 방법 ... 43
• 2절. 연구개발의 목표 및 내용 ... 47
• 3절. 연구결과 ... 48
• 제 4 장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 222
• 1절. 목표 달성도 ... 222
• 2절. 관련분야 기여도 ... 230
• 제 5 장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 232
• 1절. 연구개발결과 활용계획 ... 232
• 2절. 지속적인 연구의 필요성 ... 233
• 제 6 장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 234
• 1절. 선진국 화산감시 위성 현황 ... 234
• 2절. 해외 소프트웨어 및 기술활용 ... 238
• 제 7 장 연구시설 · 장비 현황 ... 239
• 1절. IGMAS 모델링 ... 239
• 2절. 인공위성 자료처리 ... 239
• 제 8 장 참고문헌 ... 240
• 끝페이지 ... 253