초록 ▼

Ⅳ. 연구개발결과
1. 고추, 배추, 마늘의 기후변화에 따른 생리·생육 반응 분석
<고추>
- 온도가 +4℃, CO₂ 농도 800ppm으로 상승할 경우 고추의 분지수, 착과수, 붉은색 고추수는 많아지나, 대과 비율은 낮아졌음. +2℃ 정도의 기온상승은 고추의 상품 수량을 증가시키나 +4℃상승과 CO₂ 농도 증가 시 상품수량 감소가 예상됨(‘15)
- 고추의 온도처리 시험결과 외기온도+2℃는 수량이 14% 증가했으나, 외기온도 +4℃ 경우 병해과와 소과 비율이 높아지면서 1

Ⅳ. 연구개발결과
1. 고추, 배추, 마늘의 기후변화에 따른 생리·생육 반응 분석
<고추>
- 온도가 +4℃, CO₂ 농도 800ppm으로 상승할 경우 고추의 분지수, 착과수, 붉은색 고추수는 많아지나, 대과 비율은 낮아졌음. +2℃ 정도의 기온상승은 고추의 상품 수량을 증가시키나 +4℃상승과 CO₂ 농도 증가 시 상품수량 감소가 예상됨(‘15)
- 고추의 온도처리 시험결과 외기온도+2℃는 수량이 14% 증가했으나, 외기온도 +4℃ 경우 병해과와 소과 비율이 높아지면서 15% 감소하였음. 현재보다 +2℃ 정도 기온 상승은 고추 수량을 증가시키나 +4℃상승 시 고추 수량 감소가 예상(‘14)
- 고추 생육, 꽃수 및 착과수는 CO₂ 농도처리 600, 800ppm에서 좋았으며, 온실가스(CO₂) 농도가 800ppm로 증가할 때까지 고추 착과수는 증가할 것으로 예상(‘13)
<배추>
- CO₂ 농도 800, 1000ppm에서 40일 이후에 배추 성엽의 노화와 기공전도도가 감소하였으나, 추가 실험 결과 800ppm까지는 엽신장과 생체중이 촉진되었음(‘13)
- 배추 생육기 평균온도 19.4℃에서 1℃ 증가할수록 배추수량은 7.5% 감소할 것으로 예상되었으며, 결구를 위해서는 600 μmol·m^-2·s^-1 이상의 광량이 필요하였음(‘13)
- 배추 결구이전에는 온도에 비례하여 생장이 촉진되었으나 결구기에는 고온에서 생장이 저해되었음. 또 고온일수록 배추 무름병 발생률과 생육 스트레스 정도는 증가하였으며, 중륵이 얇아지고 경도는 커져(식감이 질기게 됨) 품질이 저하됨. 일 온도를 이용한 배추 생장식을 유도하였음(‘15)
<마늘>
- 온도구배하우스에서 외기∼외기+5℃까지 조사결과 0℃이상 적산온도에 따라 마늘 엽수가 증가하였고, 엽초경도 비례하여 증가. 기온 상승은 마늘의 엽수, 엽초경을 증가시켜 수량 증가가 예상됨(‘13∼’14)
- 일 기상요인을 이용 마늘 생육을 예측할 수 있도록 기존 모형을 개선하였음(’15)
- 농업기후요소인 최저극기온, 저온일수, 초상일, 종상일, 무상일수 등 평년과 미래 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5 시나리오에 근거) 농업용 전자기후도와 기후요인을 고려한 마늘의 재배지 변동 지도를 제작하였음(’14∼’15)

2. 고추, 배추 작기 결정 기후요인 분석
- 온도구배하우스에서 배추를 재배하면서 생육단계별 최적 생육온도 범위 결정(’14)
- 현재의 고추, 배추 주산지역의 기상요소를 분석하고, 월 기후자료로부터 일별 기온 분포 전자기후도와 월별, 계절별, 연간 적산온도지도를 제작(’14)
- 적정 온도범위, 한계온도 조건을 반영하여 배추 적정 재배시기를 예측한 결과 고랭지는 +2℃ 상승으로 여름재배가 어려워지고 봄, 가을재배로 대체될 전망(’15)

3. 고추·배추 주산지 기후자원 분석 및 주산지 변동지도 제작
- 소기후 모형을 이용하여 고추, 배추 주산지에 대하여 상세한 전자기후도를 제작하였고, 이를 이용하여 주산지 기후자원을 분석하였음
- 고추·배추의 기후학적 재배적지를 판단할 수 있는 기술을 개발하였고, 이에 근거하여 미래 고추 주산지 재배적지 이동과 배추 주산지 생산성 변동을 평가하였음
- 기후학적 기준을 적용하여 마늘의 재배적지 변동지도를 제작하였음

4. 수치기후도를 활용한 필지별 기상위험 관리기술 및 시범서비스 개발
- 가뭄 등 기상위험 요소를 판단할 수 있는 기술을 개발하였음
- 기상청 예보와 소기후모형을 이용한 국지 기상실황 감시기술을 개발하였고, 고랭지 배추 주산지를 대상으로 기상위험 감시기술을 개발하여 웹을 이용한 시범서비스를 실시하였음(www.고랭지배추.kr)

5. 배추, 마늘의 수량예측 기술 개발(국제공동연구)
- 미국 ARS의 옥외생장상(SPAR) 이용 배추를 재배하며 시기별 기상 및 생육을 조사한 자료를 분석하여 배추모형을 제작하였음
- 배추는 생물리학 이론에 바탕을 둔 엽 수준 기체교환-에너지균형 결합방법을 적용하여 수관 및 식물체 수준의 광합성량과 생장량을 시간단위로 예측하는 방법을 개발하였음 (배추의 동적 프로세스 생육모형은 세계에서 처음 개발됨)
- 마늘은 사용자의 이용 편의성을 증진시키기 위하여 입력 기상자료와 출력되는 생장예측결과를 일단위로 알아볼 수 있도록 기존 모형을 개선하였음

Abstract ▼

The aims of this project are to assess the impact on climate change on the production of red pepper, Chinese cabbage and garlic based on RCP climate change scenario and to establish the risk management system of high-impact weather in major vegetables cultivation areas in Korea. For getting the goal

The aims of this project are to assess the impact on climate change on the production of red pepper, Chinese cabbage and garlic based on RCP climate change scenario and to establish the risk management system of high-impact weather in major vegetables cultivation areas in Korea. For getting the goals, firstly the crop responses in physiology and growth by environmental factors such as high temperature, air CO₂ concentration and low light intensity were studied. Secondly we tried to analyze changes in crop-season and to make crop models to predict growth and yield by daily weather data. Thirdly the agro-meteorological DB and web-service system for Hazard Weather Warning System for cultivation on 2 production areas were constructed. And future suitable-area maps projection to RCP8.5 scenario for three vegetables were also established. Major research results are summarized;
1. Effects of climatic factors on physiological and growth responses of vegetables(red pepper, Chinese cabbage, garlic)

Plant height, stem diameter, branch number, leaf number, fresh weight and dry weight increased under the temperatures higher than temperatures of climate normal years in Andong Province(IT). The number of flower and fruits were greater under IT+2℃ (mean temperature at 22.8℃) than any of under IT, IT+2℃, IT+6℃. But plant height, branch number, leaf number of red pepper were increased at the elevated 800ppm CO₂ treatment for 60 days after planting though the number of flower, bud and fruit were the greatest under elevated 600ppm CO₂ treatment during 120 days after planting. In the combination experiment with temperature and CO₂, the number of flower, bud and fruits were the greatest under control group (IT and 400ppm CO₂). So the total number of fruits showed a tendency of decreasing in the elevated CO₂ group and elevated temperature group.

The 5 light treatments of maximum light intensity from 400μmol·m^-2·s^-1 to , 1000μ mol·m^-2·s^-1 with step of 200μmol·m^-2·s^-1. The fresh weight was the highest in 1000μ mol·m^-2·s^-1 group but the lowest in 200 μmol·m^-2·s^-1group, it showed a tendency of decreasing in lower light intensity condition. With temperature treatment of normal year temperature – 2.0℃ (A), normal year temperature (B; Control), normal year temperature +2.0℃ (C), normal year temperature +4.0℃ (D), and normal year temperature +6.0℃ (E), fresh weight, number of leaves, and leaf area were high in group D, and E before the head formation stage, but they have decreased during the later growth period. The CO₂ treatments consisted of 400ppm(Control group), 600ppm, 800ppm and 1000ppm. Fresh weight was the highest in 800ppm treatment with 1030.7g but the lowest in 600ppm treatment with 836.3g, it showed a tendency of increasing in higher CO₂ concentration condition except the 600ppm treatment.

Germination rete of garlic clove was strongly affected by temperature and germination model was constructed. There is a linear relations with leaf number and sheath diameter until 6∼7 of leaf number in all of 6 different temperature SPAR chambers. After the number of leaves reached to 6∼7. leaf initiation was stopped in all treatments. But leaf initiation rate of ∼20℃ is higher than those of any other temperatures. It is suggested that the transition time from vegetative to generative growth stage is affected by temperature or GDD over 0℃. Growth retardation of garlic may affected by high temperature stress on photosynthetic mechanism in leaves. We also made future suitable-area maps for garlic production with projection to RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate change scenarios.

2. Analysis of determinant factors of crop season of Chinese cabbage and red pepper
Changes in crop seasons of red pepper and Chinese cabbage in major production area were investigated by climate change in Korea. Three areas were selected as major production area by concentrated-cultivation coefficient. Two of early and late development stages were considered to apply proper ranges of temperature and low- and upper-limited temperature of growth for both of crops. A program was developed to estimate proper cropping season based on daily mean temperature of normal years. Using program cropping season of late-cabbage production area will not change to +4℃ temperature increase, but that of summer-cabbage production area affected severely by +2℃ temperature increase. In case of red pepper higher temperature of summer season may effect on decrease of fruit quality by upper-limited temperature.

3. Analysis of climatic characteristics on major production area red pepper and Chinese cabbage and development of cultivation suitability maps of by RCP scenarios of red pepper, Chinese cabbage and garlic
Micro-climate models were developed for making high definition climate maps and climatic characteristics of major production areas of red pepper and Chinese cabbage were analyzed. Cultivation suitability maps of red pepper, Chinese cabbage garlic based on RCP scenario were also developed.

4. Development of web GIS warning system of farm-level weather risks using agro-climate information models
The farm-level weather risk warning system on Chinese cabbage production areas(high land) as considered effective measure against climate change risks of agricultural production. We were to develop micro-climate models of daily maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, radiation and wind, to make 30m-resolution digital climate maps(DCMs). Agro-climate index maps were developed such as growing degree days, daily temperature difference, frost days, extreme weather indices, agricultural drought etc. The web GIS service system was also developed for weather risk warning based on farm-level weather forecast on two production areas of Chinese cabbages.

5. Development of crop models of Chinese cabbage and garlic
SPAR experiments with 6 different temperature schemes were conducted to investigate temperature-crop responses relations with Chinese cabbage. Numbers of leaves, growth rates of samples were measured for 6 times. Radiation use efficiency(RUE) for each chamber was calculated from data. Firstly we can develop a process model based on RUE concept in which use daily radiation and temperature as input data. Nextly a coupled model of gas exchange and energy balance in leaf level of Chinese cabbage was also developed. In this model hourly meteorological data were used as input data. A coupled model can be showed reasonable simulation results compared to measured results, and can be used for explaining the hourly changes in physiological parameters in leaves. SPAR system is considered to be helpful to develop novel models for other crops in Korea.