초록 ▼

전 세계의 몬순 강수량은 전지구 수문 그리고 에너지 순환에 핵심 요소이며 대기 순환의 주요 원동력이다. 기후 변화 예측은 물리학에서 가장 도전적이고 해결되지 않은 문제 중 하나이며, 이것은 광범위한 국제협력과 시너지 활동을 필요로 한다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 (1) 글로벌 몬순과 동아시아 몬순의 계절 내부터 수 십년 변동성의 예측가능성과 최소한의 예측 인자들의 이해를 발전시키고, (2) 극한 기후를 위한 혁신적인 방법론 개발하고 최신 기술을 사용하여 몬순 기후 변화의 예측 능력을 향상 시키며, (3) 몬순 기후 취약성 평가 및

전 세계의 몬순 강수량은 전지구 수문 그리고 에너지 순환에 핵심 요소이며 대기 순환의 주요 원동력이다. 기후 변화 예측은 물리학에서 가장 도전적이고 해결되지 않은 문제 중 하나이며, 이것은 광범위한 국제협력과 시너지 활동을 필요로 한다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 (1) 글로벌 몬순과 동아시아 몬순의 계절 내부터 수 십년 변동성의 예측가능성과 최소한의 예측 인자들의 이해를 발전시키고, (2) 극한 기후를 위한 혁신적인 방법론 개발하고 최신 기술을 사용하여 몬순 기후 변화의 예측 능력을 향상 시키며, (3) 몬순 기후 취약성 평가 및 적응 전략 수집을 위한 물리적 기반을 제공하는 것이다. 몬순 예측 가능성, 기후 예측 및 미래 기후 변화의 모든 세 가지 테마를 다루기 위해, 관측과 수치 및 이론 방법론을 결합하여 완전히 통합된 접근 방법을 적용하였고 다양한 시간 규모와 공간 규모간의 상호작용이 공동 연구의 주요 목표이다. 글로벌 몬순 기후 변화의 이론과 역학 예측을 획기적으로 개선하기 위한 두 가지 주요 단계는 다음과 같다. 첫 번째 단계는 기후 변동성과 변화에 중요한 문제를 이해하는 것을 목표로 하며, 몬순 변동과 변화의 문제의 중요한 구성요소를 밝히고, 몬순 계절내 진동의 역학을 파악하고, 극한 기후의 근본적인 메커니즘을 확인하는 것이다. 두 번째 단계는 기후 예측과 사회 적응이며, 동아시아 및 글로벌 몬순의 계절내 진동의 미래 변화 예측, 강수량 및 극심한 기후 예측, 취약성 평가 및 적응 전략 개발에 관련된 기후 예측을 포함한다. 본 프로젝트는 우리의 이해를 향상시키고 다양한 시간 규모에서 예측 가능성을 결정하기 위해 제안된 모든 주제를 성공적으로 끝마쳤다. 따라서 몬순 극한 값과 다양한 시간 규모의 변화에 대한 신뢰할 수 있는 예측인자를 제공하였고 몬순의 시작일과 종료일 그리고 몬순의 강도와 극한 기후를 예측능력 향상, 지속가능한 발전에 대한 십년주기의 예측능력 향상, 기후 변화 예측에 불확실성 감소, 그리고 몬순 변화에 사회에 적용 능력의 이해할 수 있는 평가에 기여하였으며 사회경제적으로는 수자원과 재난 관리 용이, 한반도 “비용 대비 이의 비율”의 관점에서 가격을 낮출수 있는 적응 전략 제공 및 IPCC AR6와 같은 국제 협동 프로그램에 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

(출처 : 보고서 요약서 3p)

Abstract ▼

Ⅲ. Results
1. Key components of frontier problems in monsoon variability and change
a. Dynamical linkage between East Asian monsoon and global monsoon changes
◦ Global monsoon variability
- Based on the criterion of climate characteristics, global monsoon domains are classified into six

Ⅲ. Results
1. Key components of frontier problems in monsoon variability and change
a. Dynamical linkage between East Asian monsoon and global monsoon changes
◦ Global monsoon variability
- Based on the criterion of climate characteristics, global monsoon domains are classified into six sub-monsoon systems: Northern African (NAF), Asian (AS), and Northern American (NAM) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH); Southern African (SAF), Australian (AU), and Southern American (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).

- SH summer monsoon exhibits an increasing trend during recent three decades, whereas interannual variability of NH summer monsoon has significantly weakened after 1993. The possible causes of the interdecadal change have been investigated in this study.

◦ Understanding of Asian monsoon variability through the linkage with other global monsoon variabilities

- The interdecadal change in relationships among individual global monsoon variabilities could result in the weakened variability of NH summer monsoon. In particular, the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), which is a component of Asia monsoon system, plays a key role in modulating the change in relationship.

- The out-of-phase relationships between three sub-monsoon rainfalls in NH summer monsoon are responsible for the weakened variability in NH summer monsoon. The change in the relationship of AS sub-monsoons leads to the interdecadal change in NH summer monsoon.

- The WNPSM variability, which is significantly related to central Pacific warming, is the most important contributor for modulating the change in relationship among NH. The model experiment results support these results. This result contributes to both understanding of dynamical linkage between East Asian monsoon and global monsoon and capturing predictive sources of monsoon climate.

b. Monsoon variability across time scales ranging from subseasonal to interdecadal time scales
◦ Investigating possible causes of variability in East Asian summer monsoon on various time scales
- Because of the geographical feature located in the mid-latitudes, East Asian monsoon is characterized by nonlinear climate characteries and interacts with diverse climate systems in various time scales.

- Casual mechanisms of variabilities in East Asian summer monsoon from intraseasonal, interannual to interdecadal time scales are explored. The coupled mode between global precipitation and sea surface temperature exhibits a significant interdecadal variability. The recent change of global monsoon variability is not contributed only by global warming, but also by Mega-ENSO known as major mode of natural variability.

- Predictability of seasonal mean could be improved by applying predictability of intraseasonal mode, which results from a stronger impact of ENSO forcing on interannual variaiblity after excluding the intraseasonal mode.

◦ Investigating possible causes of variability in East Asian winter monsoon on various time scales
- Interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) depends on the behaviour of Siberian High (SH), Aleutian Low, and the subtropical westerly jet stream and is significantly related with both Artic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the interdecadal time scale.

- The EAWM has weakened after the mid-1980s, which may be related to the weakening of the SH and variability in the AO and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO).

c. Monsoon variability arising from tropical-extratropical-arctic interaction
◦ Feedback processes between tropical-extratropical region and extratropical-arctic region and its impact of global monsoon
- Because of the geographical feature located in the sub-tropics, the East Asian monsoon system is much more complicated than other individual global monsoon systems and thus involves complex tropical-extratropical-arctic interaction and transportation of heat and momentum.

- From the relationship between subtropical high-pressure system (NPSH and WNPSH) in the NH and ENSO transition, it is found that quasi-biennial (QB)-type ENSO is significantly linked to a tropics-midlatitudes coupled system such as an in-phase pattern between WNPSH and NPSH.

- Understanding subtropical high-pressure system in the NH and the process of ENSO development could contribute to better prediction of tropical thermal state under the global warming climate. This result is considered as scientific breaking trough achievement.

◦ Climate variability related to atmosphere-ocean interactions with high resolution modeling
- The atmosphere-ocean interactions significnatly explain the mechanisms on variability in East Asian monsoon in addition to the tropical-extratropical climate variability.

- The intraseasonal mode has a significant role in determine the predictability of East Asian monsoon through atmosphere-ocean interactions during Post-ENSO. It is established using observational and numerical model experimental datasets that Indian Ocean warming and intensity of zonal asymmetry in tropical warming pool region are a key process in modulating the intraseasonal mode.

2. Dynamics of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO)
a. Structure and mechanism of MISO
◦ Nonlinear structure and dynamical mechanism on MISO in the East Asian and western Pacific
- By adopting nonlinear classification, four Intraseasonal modes including East Asia and western Pacific monsoons are distinguished.

- MISO in the East Asian and western Pacific highly depends on baroclinicity in the mid-latitudes, WNPSH-related tropical influence, and convective instability.

- Investigating causal mechanism of MISO is more advantageous to improvement of predictability of intraseasonal feature than that of seasonal mean.

◦ Moisture transportation of dominant intraseasonal mode in EASM
- MISO exhibits distinctive thermodynamic structure and moisture transportation, especially during the period from late June to late July.

- Monsoon predictability could be improved by understanding the monsoon variability in intraseasonal mode and by applying the dififerent moisture transportation dynamics between the intraseasonal modes to the prediction, which is an useful way in prediction of rainy and dry seasons.

b. MISO variability and its linkage with global monsoon
◦ Change in MISO variability and its relationship with global monsoon
- Monsoon system should be investigated in interactions among its sub-components with global perspective beyond the previous monsoon studies which has been limited to regional monsoon.

- The weakened variability in NH summer monsoon is related to offseting the phase relationship between NH sub-components. The AS monsoon system leads to the interdecadal change in NH summer monsoon.

- By identifying the offsetting structure between the NH sub-monsoons, a causal mechanism of the recent weakened variability in NH precipitation is determined. In addition, EASM and WNPSH are suggested as key components in modulating the variability of global monsoon.

◦ Change in governing mechanism on early EASM
- The changes in early summer precipitation and the processes controlling the variation over the East Asian monsoon region has been changed abruptly around the mid-1990s.

- It has been identified that during the pre-95 epoch, the early summer rainfall anomaly is coupled to slow decay of canonical ENSO events signified by an eastern Pacific warming, while during post-95 epoch the rainfall anomaly is linked to a rapid decay of a central Pacific warming and a distinct tripolar sea surface temperature in North Atlantic.

c. MISO related to tropical-extratropical-arctic interaction
◦ Effect of tropical-extratropical interaction and extratropical-arctic interaction on MISO
- Tropical-extratropical interaction are examined by using the relationship between monsoon intraseasonal modes and ENSO.

- The matrix for prediction of summer monsoon precipitation is suggested by identifying lead-lag relationship between East Asian intraseasonal modes and eastern Pacific and Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The asymmetric response to ENSO on East Asian monsoon precipitation is further examined.

◦ Role of coupled land-atmosphere-ocean processes on MISO with high resolution modeling
- We attempts to reveal boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation teleconnection patterns associated with dominant intraseasonal variability centers.

- In has been identified that intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon has time-lagged relationship with that over the western North Pacific summer monsoon by 4-6 days and Indian summer monsoon and north American summer monsoon have an opposite phase in the monsoon intraseasonal variability.

3. Fundamental mechanism of extreme climate
a. Cause identification of extreme climate affecting Korea and East Asia
◦ Thermodynamic energy analysis to define extreme climate in East Asian summer monsoon
- Extreme climate in East Asian summer monsoon region depends on the increases in moisture flux and thermal gradient between land and sea.

- According to water vapor-temperature relationship, 1 degree increases in temperature bring 6.7% increases in water vapor. Therefore, prediction of extreme climate is important in adaptation strategy for climate change.

- Extreme precipitation and temperature events in East Asia can be accelerated according to increases in monsoon precipitation.

◦ Casual analysis for East Asian extreme precipitation using baroclinic and barotropic instability
- Cause of extreme precipitation over Korean peninsula is investigated using thermodynamic analysis. It has been demonstrated that the both of diabatic heating and low-level thermal advection is key factor for determing the extreme precipitations in East Asian summer monsoon.

- Baroclininc instability is a key process for extreme precipitation during early summer, while convective instability by low-level moisture and warm air advection is significant factors for extreme precipitations during mature phase of East Asian summer monsoon.

- The adaptation strategy considering moisture convergence and warm air advection is needed for better prediction of extreme precipitations.

b. Extreme climate change related to global monsoon
◦ Changes in extreme climate related to monsoon
- According to AR5 model experiment results, increase of temperature can cause increases in precipitation over Asia and Australia monsoon region by 4.5% and 2.6% respectively.

- The precipitation over East Asia has rapidly increased in contrast to those over Australia and Indian monsoon. The rapid increase in precipitation over East Asia might be due to the different contribution of the increased temperature on the monsoon circulation and precitation: i.e., the increased temperature tends to accelerate monsoon circulation and precipitation over the East Asia, while the opposite does over the Australia and India.

◦ Relationship between extreme climate, global monsoon and ENSO
- Since the change in extreme climate is not uniform in space and nonlinear in time, top 1% of precipitation for each grid points is defined as extreme event and their relationship with ENSO is examined.

- The post- and pre- ENSO events have different source of predictability for extreme precipitation. Post-El Niño events trigger the increases in early summer precipitation and the decreases in late summer precipitation.

- La Niña has asymmetric impact on intraseasonal East Asian summer monsoon. Two of four intraseasonal modes have larger predictability than the other intraseasonal modes.

c. Causal mechanism for variation of extreme climate
◦ Diurnal variation of extreme precipitation over the East Asian region
- 3-hour satellite data are used to examine the mechanism for extreme precipitation and the diurnal variation.

- The monsoon precipitation in Meiyu and Baiu is characterized by early morning rainfall through the impact of ocean and moisture while that in Changma is featured by late afternoon rainfall under the influence of low-level jet from the WNPSH.

◦ Tropical-extratropical-artic interaction for the casual mechanism of extreme climate
- Through the case analysis of extreme temperature and precitation events contradicted the gradually increasing surface temperature due to global warming, Impacts of tropical and mid-latitudes forcing and the scale interaction between high-frequency weather activity and seasonal mean climate on the extreme events are examined.

- Source of monthly predictability are investigated by identifying different teleconnection mechanism.

4. Future changes in intraseasonal variation of East Asian monsoon and global monsoon
a. Projection of future change in Asian monsoon and its mechanisms
◦ intraseasonal variation of Asian summer monsoon and it mechanisms and predictions
- A considerable interdecadal change in the difference of convective precipitation between the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon systems are strengthened.

- Both the weakened upper level zonal wind anomaly and the strong zonal SST gradient between the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific are key factors in generating the sharp contrast of convective precipitation between the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon.

- The strengthening of the zonal SST gradient associated with the recent mega-La Nina trend tends to reinforce the negative connection between South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon systems by inducing enhanced convection over the maritime continent.

◦ Development of statistical technique for intraseasonal variation of East Asian summer monsoon
- Since the differences in not only characteristics of precipitation but also atmospheric circulation between early and late summer exist, the subspecialized periods in summer are needed to improve prediction skill.

- The dominant intraseasonal modes of East Asian summer monsoon have different prediction sources depending on the phase and transition of ENSO.

- Three precursors to predict early summer rainfall are established using a physical empirical model. The prediction skill using the physical empirical model (0.75) is substantially higher than four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for 1979–2010 period (0.15). Also, predictability using statistical technique could be more improved than using dynamical models.

b. Global monsoon characteristics and predictability of future change in climate change
◦ Projection of future change of global monsoon using AR5
- The anthropogenic and natural modes are well separated by 22.7% and 16.0%, respectively.

- The precipitation pattern over the tropics has a tripolar structure in anthropogenic mode but a zonal asymmetric structure near 150°E in natural mode and it is related to strong Walker circulation.

- Both the natural and anthropogenic modes show a positive sign of potential function, which denotes an increase of precipitation over the tropical WP. This is because a dominant zonal moisture transport by the divergent component over the tropics.

◦ Causal mechanisms for future change in global monsoon
- The change in precipitation by anthropogenic mode is decreasing over the whole monsoon region except Australia monsoon, while that by natural mode is increasing over the Eastern Hemisphere.

- The precipitation in global monsoon is increased and decreased by anthropogenic and natural modes, respectively. The intensity of natural mode is much larger than that of anthropogenic mode, so that the natural mode such as ENSO should be much emphasized.

- Since there are high uncertainties in predictions of future changes of inter-El Niño variability, to understand ENSO’s nonlinear effect is needed to improve the ability to simulate the persistence mode and to further understand a diverse continuum of ENSO events.

- A robust assessment of significant northward and eastward 20% future expansions of Mediterranean climate over the Euro-Mediterranean. In addition, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established Mediterranean climate zones.

c. Development of optimal technique for reducing uncertainty in monsoon projection
◦ Assessment of tropical-extratropical-arctic interaction and land-atmosphere-ocean interaction
- The October intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in tropics is largely controlled by atmospheric internal dynamics, while the November ISO is strongly coupled with underlying ocean that improve ISO forecasting by enhancing the response of a Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet, which prolongs the feedback between convection and large-scale circulations.

- The second dominant mode in winter over East Asia, which is characterized by northern warming, exhibits a weakening association with ENSO, while it shows a greater association with the arctic oscillation after the late 1970s, indicating the changes in the tropical-extratropical-arctic relationship.

◦ Development of optimal technique in monsoon projection by reducing uncertainty in aerosol estimation
- An algorithm to derive organic aerosols single scattering albedo empirically is development, and the aerosol effect of light absorption by organic aerosols on global and regional climate should be more intensified than currently understood, since the aerosol light absorption underrepresented.

- Changes in light absorption by spring organic aerosols in the Indian monsoon have accelerated the monsoon onset day and affected a significant warming over the Tibetan Plateau.

- The warming of the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau by aerosol forcing is considered to be a forcing, which propagates to East Asia along the jet stream, resulting in East Asian trough and the relevant precipitation in summer.

5. Future changes and projections in precipitation and water cycle
a. Future changes and projections in decadal variations of precipitation and water cycle
◦ Future projections in decadal variations of precipitation and water cycle
- In recent three decades, the significant increasing of precipitation and moisture convergence over the western Pacific are caused by the combined effect of global warming and natural variability through the westward shift and strengthening of Walker circulation which is affected by the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific.

- The zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical pacific is emphasized a major factor that has a significant effect on the zonal shift and strength of the Walker circulation through numerical model experiments and the zonal gradient of that can lead the eastward of Walker circulation at 10.97°/K under the global warming condition in the future.

- According to the AR5 models' future predictions, the anthropogenic forcing will lead the increasing of precipitation over the eastern Pacific. The cause is the positive zonal gradient of SST over the tropical Pacific that can lead the suppresed convection over the eastern Pacific through the eastward shift of Walker circulation.

◦ Understanding of the interaction between aerosol and monsoon and its' effect on the precipitation and water cycle in the future
- The natural aerosols reach a maximum amount in the atmosphere about 5 months after a volcanic eruption and slowly decrease during the two years leading to a cooling effect on the surface temperature.

- The global monsoon precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. The remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather then moisture content change.

- In the Asian monsoon region where produces a lot of anthropogenic aerosols, a strong radiative cooling effect due to the absorption of radiation of aerosol over the top of Tibetan plateau can occur a strong downward current and a weakening of Asian monsoon.

b. Mechanism of local extreme climate and reduced uncertainty of future prediction of extreme climate
◦ Mechanism of local extreme climate due to topographical effect

- The effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a topographical element is emphasized on the occurring mechanism of atmospheric blocking event which is one of extreme climate events to explain the difference between Pacific blocking (PB) and Atlantic blocking (AB).

- The blocking frequency is increased 3% and 21% over the Pacific and Atlantic from 0% to 100% of the TP height. The increasing of blocking frequency is due to amplifying stationary waves owing to the TP uplift and the effect of topography is more sensitive on the AB than the PB.

- The TP uplift tend to shift the location of AB to the north due to notable poleward displacement of the jet stream and transient eddy activities, while it increases the blocking frequency over the active centers of both ocean basins via amplifying the eddy kinetic energy of stationary waves.

◦ Development of reducing uncertainty in extreme climate prediction
- Partial lateral forcing (PLF) experiments were conducted to reveal the mechanism of the extreme rainfall in the context of various time-scale. The relative impacts of the synoptic, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual variability on the extreme rainfall are investigated, and the intra-seasonal variability is demonstrated an important prediction component of the extreme rainfall.

- The intra-seasonal forcing not only triggers the monsoon onset but also drives the extreme rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region. The development of intra-seasonal variability prediction is suggested to reduce an uncertainty in extreme climate prediction.

c. Analysis of the relationship between East Asian monsoon and global monsoon in Future climate
◦ Effects of global monsoon regions on the East Asian monsoon
- The analysis of precipitation variability in Taiwan can suggest the physical process and causes of a variability of Meiyu which is a dominant event of the East Asian summer monsoon.

- A contrasting sea surface temperature tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, the tri-polar sea surface temperature tendency in North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a surface warming tendency in northeast Asia are important physical processes of the East Asian monsoon.

- The prediction of Asian monsoon is increased by the developing a physical-empirical model using the physical processes of the East Asian monsoon, and the East Asia-western North Pacific monsoons are related to the change in teleconnection pattern as the a distribution of anomalous Atlantic sea surface and a surface temperature tendency in northeast Asia as much as the regional monsoon mechanism.

◦ Impacts of global monsoon regions on the East Asian monsoon in the future climate
- The anthropogenic forcing will increase rainfall over the high-latitude and tropical regions and dryness over the subtropical regions including the East Asian monsoon region.

- The increasing of solar radiation which is one of natural forcing can lead the strengthening of monsoon circulation over the Asia and Australia through the increasing of zonal sea surface temperature gradient over the tropical Pacific.
Thus, the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing have offset influences in the East Asian monsoon.

- In the future projections of AR5, the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) will be strengthened due to the intensification of the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) pattern, while the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) will be weakened due to the weakening of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern with an atmospheric stabilization and a weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship.

6. Assessment of vulnerability and developmetn of adaptation strategies
a. Assessment of potential impacts of climate changes
◦ Assessment of potential impacts of climate changes in Korea
- Under anthropogenic global warming, significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrast over the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future and precipitation in winter and summer over the Korean Peninsula tends to increase.

- In future climate, precipitation will change due to other influences such as water vapor transport, not simply proportional to the temperature increase.

- The performances of 27-CMIP5 models are evaluated in terms of Asian monsoon intensity and time evolution based on the seasonal-mean and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation.

◦ Effects of monsoon intraseasonal variability and large-scale circulation on climate changes in Korea
- Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based physical-empirical (P-E) model, it is suggested that early summer (May–June) East Asia monsoon precipitation pattern is related to the interaction between the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high and underlying Indo-Pacific warm ocean, the forcing associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, and the development of equatorial central Pacific SST anomalies.

- The less predictable western Pacific intraseasonal oscillation (WPISO) is likely due to the existence of its significant biweekly component. The relationship between predictability and initial amplitude is examined.

- A dipole-like SST pattern, i.e., a warming in the western Pacific and a cooling in the eastern Pacific, is dominant after the mid-to-late 1990s, which acts to enhance the covariability of North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH)-western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH).

b. Assessment of vulnerability of climate change
◦ Assessment of vulnerability in Korea
- To assessment of vulnerability of extreme climate events, the development mechanisms of an unusual heavy snowfall event were investigated through a thermodynamic approach.

- This heavy snowfall event is developed by the cold air advection due to the strong pressure gradient, strong upward flow by the convective instability, and heat and moisture supply from Yellow Sea.

- To evaluate the vulnerability in Korea due to the wind, the development mechanisms of the explosive cyclone were examined. The primary important in the generation and formation of the explosive cyclone is the latent heat release. This result contributes to both understanding of mechanisms and assessment of vulnerability in Korea.

◦ Assessment of vulnerability in global monsoon
- The El Niño evolution varies from case to case because of the difference in decaying phase: a short decaying El Niño that terminates in the following boreal summer and a long one that persists until the subsequent boreal winter.

- In the future climate, the WNPSH response to the short decaying El Niño is considerably intensified, being associated with the enhanced negative precipitation anomaly response over the equatorial central Pacific. The WNPSH changes contribute to the boreal summer monsoon climate.

c. Development of adaptation strategies in Korea
◦ Assessment of socio-economic risk of climate changes adaptation in Korea
- To identify the nonlinear characteristics of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), an EOF-based self-organizing map (SOM) (ESOM) analysis is developed. The ESOM analysis enables the detection of BSISO over the Asian summer monsoon region.

- The four most distinguishable phases represent a pair of stationary patterns with a dipole between the eastern Indian Ocean and the Philippine Sea (phases 1 and 5) and a pair of propagating patterns with a northwest–southeast-tilted rain belt structure (phases 3 and 7).

- The broadening of probability density functions (PDFs) of maximum and minimum daily temperature in the future influences temperature extreme events, and correcting the intrinsic biases of models rather than seasonal mean correction is necessary to reduce the uncertainties in predicting future changes in temperature extremes.

◦ Suggestion of the adaptation strategies for resource management and natural disasters due to the climate change
- Using the Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), which develop to overcome of limitations of satellite-based vegetation indices, and Gross Primary Production (GPP), how drought affects growth of the crop by quantifying the relationship between NDDI and GPP were examined.

- NDDI had a strong negative correlation with GPP under relatively dry conditions, and the impacts of NDDI on GPP was greater in summer than in spring, which indirectly shows summer drought may be more critical to crop productivity.

(출처 : SUMMARY 20p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제 출 문 ... 2
• 보고서 요약서 ... 3
• 요약문 ... 4
• SUMMARY ... 18
• 목차 ... 33
• 제 1장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 36
• 제 1절 연구개발의 목적 및 필요성 ... 36
• 제 2절 연구개발 범위 ... 36
• 제 2장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 39
• 제 1절 국내 현황 ... 39
• 제 2절 국제 현황 ... 39
• 제 3장 연구개발수행 내용 및 결과 ... 41
• 제 1절 몬순 변동성과 변화에 대한 미해결 문제 규명 ... 41
• 1. 동아시아 몬순 및 글로벌 몬순 변화의 역학적 관계 규명 ... 41
• 2. 다양한 시간 규모의 몬순 변동성 분석 ... 46
• 3. 적도-중위도-극 상호작용과 연관된 몬순 변동성 연구 ... 51
• 제 2절 몬순 계절안 변동성 역학 규명 ... 57
• 1. 몬순 계절안 변동성의 구조 및 발생 메커니즘 이해 ... 57
• 2. 몬순 계절안 변동성과 글로벌 몬순과의 연관성 파악 ... 61
• 3. 적도-중위도-극 상호작용과 연관된 몬순 계절안 변동성 이해 ... 62
• 제 3절 극한 기후 발생 메커니즘 이해 ... 64
• 1. 한반도와 동아시아에 영향을 미치는 극한 기후의 원인 규명 ... 64
• 2. 글로벌 몬순과 관련된 극한 기후 변화 분석 ... 68
• 3. 극한 기후 변동성의 발생 메커니즘 파악 ... 74
• 제 4절 동아시아 몬순 및 글로벌 몬순의 계절안 변동성 미래 변화 예측 ... 78
• 1. 아시아 몬순의 변동성의 미래 변화 예측 및 미래 변화 발생 메커니즘 파악 ... 78
• 2. 기후 변화에 따른 글로벌 몬순 특징 분석 및 미래 변화 예측 능력 모의 ... 87
• 3. 몬순 계절안 예측의 최적 기술 개발 ... 92
• 제 5절 극한 기후 및 강수의 미래 변화 예측 ... 97
• 1. 미래 기후에서의 강수와 물순환의 수십년주기 및 미래변화 예측 ... 97
• 2. 국지적 극한 기후 발생 메커니즘 및 미래 극한 기후 예측의 불확실성 저감 ... 102
• 3. 미래 기후에서의 동아시아 몬순과 글로벌 몬순의 관계 분석 ... 107
• 제 6절 기후 변화에 대한 취약성 평가 및 적응 전략 수립 ... 112
• 1. 기후 변화의 잠재적 영향 평가 ... 112
• 2. 기후변화에 대한 취약성 평가 ... 118
• 3. 기후변화에 대한 한반도 적응 전략 개발 ... 123
• 제 4장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 129
• 제 1절 연도별 연구개발목표 ... 129
• 1. 1차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 129
• 2. 2차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 129
• 3. 3차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 129
• 4. 4차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 129
• 5. 5차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 129
• 6. 6차년도 연구개발의 목표 ... 130
• 제 2절 평가의 착안점 및 기준 ... 130
• 제 3절 목표 달성도 및 관련분야에서의 기여도 ... 131
• 1. 1차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 131
• 2. 2차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 132
• 3. 3차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 133
• 4. 4차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 135
• 5. 5차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 136
• 6. 6차년도 연구개발 목표의 달성도 ... 138
• 제 4절 국내 연구인력 양성 결과 ... 139
• 1. 학위배출 및 관련분야 취업 ... 140
• 2. 수상실적 ... 140
• 3. 참여연구원의 교류실적 ... 142
• 4. 연구성과 ... 143
• 5. 국내 연구결과 공유 ... 158
• 제 5절 해외기관과의 공동연구 성과 ... 170
• 1. 양측간 역할분담 정도 ... 170
• 2. 공동연구 성공을 위한 노력 ... 171
• 3. 해외인력 및 자원 활용성과 ... 177
• 제 5장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 186
• 1. 연구개발결과의 활용 및 지속적 연구의 필요성 ... 186
• 2. 이론 및 모형을 통한 협력연구 효율의 극대화 ... 187
• 제 6장 연구개발과정에서 수집한 해외과학기술정보 ... 190
• 제 1절 국제 학술회의 및 워크숍 참석을 통한 주요 해외과학기술정보수집 ... 190
• 제 2절 해외과학자 초청을 통한 주요 해외과학기술정보 수집 ... 218
• 제 7장 연구시설.장비 현황 ... 228
• 제 8장 참고문헌 ... 230
• Final report for the GRL ... 241
• 끝페이지 ... 298