[보고서]자료동화 접합 기후예측체계 개발 및 기후변화 진단 연구

김영호

보고서 정보

주관연구기관

한국해양과학기술원
Korea Institute of Ocean Science ＆ Technology

연구책임자

김영호

참여연구자

권민호 , 김경옥 , 나한나 , 진현근

보고서유형

2단계보고서

발행국가

대한민국

언어

한국어

발행년월

2016-08

과제시작연도

2015

주관부처

미래창조과학부
Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning

등록번호

TRKO201800006731

과제고유번호

1711029900

사업명

기후변화대응기술개발

DB 구축일자

2018-05-12

키워드

기후변화.기후모델.기후예측.자료동화.기후재분석.태풍.Climate Change.Climate Model.Climate Forecast.Data Assimilation.Climate Reanalysis.Typhoon.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO201800006731

표 Schematic diagram of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation.
표 Number of temperature (left panel) and salinity (right panel) profiles by year (upper panel) and month (lower panel)
표 Horizontal distribution of the number of temperature profiles by year.
표 Example of the actual filtering area in each filter domain.
표 Sea Surface Temperature from the observation (World Ocean Atlas2009; upper panel) and KIOST Climate Reanalysis (middle panel), and difference between them (lower panel) averaged in December to February (left panel) and June to August (right panel)
표 Vertical section of the temperature along the equator averaged in time from 1947 to 2012 from observation (World Ocean Atlas 2009, left panel) and KIOST climate reanalysis (right panel)
표 Mixed layer depth (MLD) of (a) Montégut, (b) DASK, and (c) difference (DASK-Montégut). Left panels show boreal winter (December, January, February; DFJ) and right panels boreal summer (June, July, and August;JJA) averaged from 2004 to 2008. Units are m.
표 Meridional temperature sections averaged from 2001 to 2010 along the dateline in (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are °C.
표 Meridional sections of temperature difference from the EN4 along the dateline for the (a) DASK, (b) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are °C.
표 Meridional salinity sections averaged from 2001 to 2010 along the dateline in (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Thick white contours denote 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces and units are psu.
표 Meridional sections of salinity difference from the EN4 along the dateline for the (a) DASK, (b) SODA and (d) ECDA. Thick white contours denote 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces and units are m.
표 Horizontal distribution of salinity averaged from 2001 to 2010 on the 26.8 density surface, on which NPIW disperses southwestward in the (a) DASK, (b) EN4, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA. Units are psu.
표 (a) Meridional temperature section from the EN4, and sections of temperature difference from the EN4 for (b) DASK-EN4, (c) SODA-EN4 and (d) ECDA-EN4. The temperature fields are averaged in 160°-180°E from 2001 to 2010. Units are °C.
표 (a) Meridional salinity section from the EN4, and sections of salinity difference from the EN4 for (b) DASK-EN4, (c) SODA-EN4 and (d) ECDA-EN4. Thick white contours in (a) 25.6 and 26.8 density surfaces. The salinity fields are averaged in 160° -180°E from 2001 to 2010. Units are psu.
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1947-1960.
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1961-1980.
표 Comparison of precipitation between KIOST climate reanalysis (middle panel) and observations (CMAP-left panel; GPCP-right panel) in average from December to February (upper panel) and June to August (lower panel). The precipitation from the CMAP and GPCP is averaged in time from 1983 to 2012 while the reanalyzed one averaged from 1983-1988.
표 Correlation coefficients between time series of HC300 (from 1980 to 2010) estimated from EN4 observations and each reanalysis of DASK, SODA, and ECDA.
표 Mean observed HC300 from observation(EN4) and mean offsets of HC300 in DASK, SODA, and ECDA from EN4.
표 Anomalies of upper 300 m Heat Content (HC300) from 1980 to 2010 averaged in (a) Northern Ocean, (b) Southern Ocean, (c) Tropical Pacific, (d) Tropical Atlantic, (e) Tropical Indian Ocean, and (f) Northwest Pacific. Black, red, blue and green lines denote HC300 from DASK, EN4, SODA and ECDA, respectively.
표 Horizontal map of correlation coefficient between upper HC300 estimated from EN4 and modeled HC300 (from 1980 to 2010) for (a) DASK, (b) DASK with wind correction, (c) SODA and (d) ECDA.
표 Comparison between estimates of meridional heat transport by two reanalysis (DASK and ECDA) and previously published estimates of meridional heat transport based on observations in the (a) global ocean of DASK, (b) Indo-Pacific of DASK, (c) Atlantic of DASK, (d) global ocean of ECDA, (e) Indo-Pacific of ECDA, and (f) Atlantic of ECDA. Errror bars are based on data from observations.
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the tropical Pacific for (a)DASK (b)EN4 (c)SODA (d)ECDA and (e)their Principal Component time series.
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the north Pacific for (a)DASK, (b)EN4, (c)SODA,(d)ECDA and (e)their time series
표 1st EOF modes of HC300 in the Indian Ocean for (a)DASK, (b)EN4, (c)SODA, (d)ECDA and (e)their timeseries
표 Comparison of the mean zonal current (cm/s) of historical run (without data assimilation) (dotted line), DASK without wind correction (solid line) and DASK with wind correction (dashed line) with the TAO current observations (solid line) at four equatorial mooring sites at 165°E (a,b), 170°W (c,d), 140°W (e,f), and 110°W (g,h) for two periods, before 1999 (a,c,e,g) and after 2000 (b,e,f,h). Left (right) panel in each figure shows mean zonal current (RMSD).
표 Sea Ice Thickness (m) produced by DASK without wind nuding (left panel) and with 50% wind nuding (right panel)
표 Temperature increment by ocean data assimilation of the DASK averaged from 1979 to 2012 in March-April-May (Left upper panel), Jun-July-August (Right upper panel), September-October-November (Left lower panel), and December-January-February (Right lower panel)
표 Salinity increment by ocean data assimilation of the DASK averaged from 1979 to 2012 in March-April-May (Left upper panel), Jun-July-August (Right upper panel), September-October-November (Left lower panel), and December-January-February (Right lower panel)
표 1 year forcasts of NINO3.4 from initial condition at every FEB, MAY, AUG, and NOV from 1982 to 2011. The correlation at 12 months lead time is 0.604, 0.705, 0.312, 0.554, respectively.
표 Hovmöller diagram of 1 year forcasts of NINO3.4 .
표 Horizontal maps of correlation between forcasted Sea Surface Temperature and observed on for 6 month leading time at (a) February start simulation, (b) May start simulation, (c)August start simulation, and (d) November start simulation. Green, yellow, and red shading above 99% confidence level.
표 Horizontal maps of correlation between forcasted Sea Surface Temperature and observed on for 12 month leading time at (a) February start simulation, (b) May start simulation, (c)August start simulation, and (d) November start simulation. Green, yellow, and red shading above 99% confidence level.
표 1 year forcasts of NINO3.4 from initial condition from different wind bias correction rate (0%, 25%, 50%) from 1982 to 2011. The correlation at 12 months lead time is 0.776, 0.740, 0.705, respectively.
표 Forecast error of GAIA Climate Model initialized from February every year by ocean data assimilation. Forecast error was obtained from the difference between forecasted SST and climate reanalysis.
표 Same with Figure 31 but initialized from May every year.
표 Same with Figure 31 but initialized from August every year.
표 Same with Figure 31 but initialized from November every year.
표 Forecasted NINO3.4 index from May, 2014 to April, 2015 (blue line for ensemble average, and grey lines for each ensemble member) and the real NINO3.4 index to March, 2015.
표 Climatological mean of GPI from (a) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and (b) KIOST reanalysis by GAIA climate model in JASON (July, August, September, October, and November) season. (b) Genesis locations of tropical cyclones from JTWC (the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in JASON. Colors indicate mean genesis frequency of 5.0 by 5.0 degree grid box.
표 Annual cycle of mean genesis potential index and climatological number of tropical cyclones in the (a) Northern Hemisphere, (b) western North Pacific, (c) northern Indian, and (d) Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Closed bar, red open circle, and blue closed circle indicate observed TC genesis, GPI from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and GPI from KIOST reanalysis, respectively.
표 Maps of relative error of relative humidity at 700 hPa in JASON season for (a) KIOST reanalysis, (b) 18-model ensemble mean, (c) CanESM2, (d) CCSM4, (e) CESM1(CAM5), (f) CNRM-CM5, (f) CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, (g) GFDL-ESM2M, (h) GISS-E2-H, (i) GISS-E2-R, (j) HadGEM2-AO, (k) HadGEM2-CC, (l) HadGEM2-ES, (m) INM-CM4, (n) IPSL-CM5A-MR, (o) MIROC5, (p) MPI-ESM-LR, (q) MRI-CGCM3, (r) NorESM1-ME, and (s) NorESM1-M. The relative error is defined as the difference of the model climatology and the reanalysis climatology at each grid point normalized by the magnitude of the reanalysis climatology at that grid point.
표 Maps of genesis potential index differences of historical and RCP 4.5 scenario runs in CMIP5 climate models.
표 Same as Fig. 39. except for 18-model ensemble mean. Shaded areas indicate statistically significant at 95% confidence level by Student’s t-test.
표 Maps of potential intensity differences of historical and RCP 4.5 scenario runs in CMIP5 climate models.
표 Difference of climatological potential intensity between two periods, historical and RCP4.5 in JASON season for varying (a) sea surface temperature, (b) mean sea level pressure, (c) air temperature, and (d) specific humidity with the other variables as climatology of historical run. All results are 18-model ensemble mean.
표 Differences of potential temperatures between Historical and RCP4.5 scenarios over the western North Pacific region (130E-180, 5N-15N) during JASON season and temperature profiles. Blue and orange lines indicate Historical and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively.
표 Rate of change of ice sheet mass balance obtained from model experiment.
표 Rate of change of Ice sheet mass balance under 7oC/km lapse rate (light blue line), and that obtained from model experiment (dark blue line).
표 Net energy flux obtained from different height of Greenland ice sheet. Net energy flux includes net short-wave radiation, net long-wave radiation, latent heat flux and sensible heat flux.
표 Boreal summer mean surface air temperature and winds distribution. Control run (upper left), 75% experiment (upper right), 50% experiment (lower left), and 25% experiment (lower right). Units for wind speed is m s-1.
표 Boreal summer mean surface air temperature and surface winds obtained from different height of Greenland ice sheet experiment. Control run (upper left), 75% experiment minus control (upper right), 50% experiment minus control (lower left), and 25% experiment minus control (lower right). Units for wind speed is m s-1.
표 Thermal advection over the Greenland region.
표 Geometry of Arctic sea
$Time series of sea ice fraction averaged over Arctic sea, Barents sea, Kara sea, Laptev sea, E. Siberian, Chukchi sea, Beaufort sea.$ 표 Time series of sea ice fraction averaged over Arctic sea, Barents sea, Kara sea, Laptev sea, E. Siberian, Chukchi sea, Beaufort sea.
$Regression map of sea level (upper) and SST (lower) against september sea ice fraction of Kara sea. Nov and Dec indicate 1 year before from the reference time. Statistically significant areas with 80% confidence level are shaded.$ 표 Regression map of sea level (upper) and SST (lower) against september sea ice fraction of Kara sea. Nov and Dec indicate 1 year before from the reference time. Statistically significant areas with 80% confidence level are shaded.
$Regression map of sea level pressure anomalies against september arctic sea ice fraction. Statistically significant areas over 80% confidence level are shaded.$ 표 Regression map of sea level pressure anomalies against september arctic sea ice fraction. Statistically significant areas over 80% confidence level are shaded.
$Regression map of sea level (upper) and SST (lower) against september sea ice fraction of Kara sea. Nov and Dec indicate 1 year before from the reference time. Statistically significant areas with 80% confidence level are shaded.$ 표 Regression map of sea level (upper) and SST (lower) against september sea ice fraction of Kara sea. Nov and Dec indicate 1 year before from the reference time. Statistically significant areas with 80% confidence level are shaded.
$Lagged correlation map between cloud fraction and sea-ice concentration. Shaded area indicates the statistically significant with 90% confidence level.$ 표 Lagged correlation map between cloud fraction and sea-ice concentration. Shaded area indicates the statistically significant with 90% confidence level.
표 Data and Model experiments for climate variability over the Greenland
표 summer-mean surface air temperature obtained from (a) NCEP and (b) KIOST CGCM. Contour intervals are 3 degree.
표 vertical profile of mean air temperature obtained from NCEP, KIOST(GFDL), and FOAM
표 Mass Balance (bar), Accumulation (sky blue line) and Melting (yellow line) rate of snow for last 50years averaged over Greenland obtained from (a) NCEP and (b) KIOST. Units are mm year-1.
표 Surface temperature averaged over Greenland .vs. ice sheet height obtained from NCEP, KIOST(GFDL), and FOAM.
표 Area averaged annual mean precipitation for the last 50years in Greenland obtained from KIOST model
표 Mass balance averaged over Greenland obtained Form (a) FOAM and (b) KIOST (GFDL)
표 Accmulation and melting of snow obtained from NCEP and KIOST model experiment.
표 Difference in thermal advection at the surface between each experiment and control experiment. Thermal advection from control experiment is at lower right corner. Units are degree day-1.
표 Difference in thermal advection at the greenland surface between each experiment and control experiment. Units are degree day-1.
표 Trend of sea ice area for November and December mean. Units are %.
표 Nov-Dec mean Arctic sea ice area change for total (AC), Barents—Kara sea (BK) and Chukchi (Ch). Units are km2.
표 EOFs of Nov-Dec mean sea ice concentration.
표 Regression of Sea level (contour) and SST (shading) on DJF-mean sea ice area for Barents-Kara sea (BK) and Chukchi
표 Singular value decomposition between sea ice concentration (FMA, OND) and sea surface temperature (DJF, DJF+1).
표 Auto-correlation of Barents-Kara sea ice concentration with respect to each calender month.
표 Model experiments of this study
표 Area for SST Nudging (hatched)
표 Seasonal variation of Arctic sea ice obtained fromm Control experiment (left; control experiment) and Arctic SST nudging experiment (right; Realistic experiment). Red and black boxes indicate analysis data and model data, respectively.
표 Distribution of each calender month Arctic sea ice obtained from reanalysis (left) and Realistic experiment (right)
표 Area averaged sea ice area for Arctic sea (AC), Chukchi sea (Ch), and Barents-Kara (BK). Red and blue lines indicates model ensemble mean and reanalysis, respectively.
표 Leading EOFs and PCs of sea ice concentration obtained from reanalysis (left) and Realistic experiment (right)
표 Regression maps of DJF-mean North Pacific SST and sea levels against EOF PC time series. Upper and lower panels represent the Realistic experiment and Reanalysis data, respectively.
표 Time series and power spectrum of PDO index obtained from (a) GFDL CM2.1 control experiment, (b) GFDL CM2.1 restored a climatological SST with 5-day relaxation, and (c) GFDL CM2.1 resorted a climatological SST with 60-day relaxation.
표 Autocorrelation of PDO index starting from each calander month obtained from (a) Reanalysis data, (b) GFDL CM2.1 restored a climatological SST with 5-day relaxation, and (c) GFDL CM2.1 resorted a climatological SST with 60-day relaxation.
표 Standard deviation of equatorial (5°S–5°N) SST anomalies with respect to AMO phase (grey: +AMO, black: AMO) in (a) HadISST and (b) CM2.1. (c and d) The same as Figures 1a and 1b, except for skewness of SST. (e and f) A composite of HadISST anomalies during October to December for El Niño years that belong to +AMO and AMO periods,respectively (in °C). Prior to composite analysis, the mean SST covariant with the AMO was removed from the SST anomaly. (g and h) The same as Figures 1e and 1f , except for La Niña years (El Niño: 10 (+AMO) and 22 (AMO) years, La Niña: 15 (+AMO) and 20 (AMO) years). Stippled areas indicate significant anomalies at the 95% confidence level based on a t test.
표 Differences of annual mean of (a) HadISST (°C) and (b) GPCP precipitation (mm/day) between negative and positive AMO periods. (c and d) The same as Figures 2a and 2b except for using CM2.1 simulation output. Stippled areas indicate a significant difference at 90% and 95% confidence levels for observation and CM2.1, respectively.
표 (a) Regression coefficients of precipitation over the eastern tropical Pacific against the Niño 3 SST for each calendar month for the periods of +AMO (gray) and AMO (black) in the observation. (b) Same as Figure 3a except for CM2.1 output. Units are mmday-1 °C-1. Closed squares indicate significant coefficients at 95% confidence level on a t-test.
표 (a) Regression coefficients of precipitation over the eastern tropical Pacific against the Nino 3 SST for each calendar month for the periods of +AMO (gray) and AMO (black) in the observation. (b) Same as Figure 3a except for CM2.1 output. Units are mm day-1 ℃-1. Closed squares indicate significant coefficients at 95% confidence level on a t-test.

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자료동화 접합 기후예측체계 개발 및 기후변화 진단 연구
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자료동화 접합 기후예측체계 개발 및 기후변화 진단 연구 Development of Climate Prediction System applying data assimilation and diagnostic study on the climate change 원문보기

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Development of Climate Prediction System applying data assimilation and diagnostic study on the climate change 원문보기

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