초록 ▼

❍ 기후변화 요인으로 한반도 용오름 현상의 다발적 발생 가능성에 대비하기 위해 용오름 발생 조건에 대한 기상학적 고찰이 필요함

❍ 기존의 국내 연구는 모델을 활용한 사례분석 연구와 이중편파레이더를 이용한 관측사례분석 등 한가지 사례에 대한 단편적인 연구가 수행되어 한반도에서 발생한 용오름 현상에 대한 포괄적인 이해가 부족함

❍ 본 과제에서는 과거 한반도 용오름 사례의 조사·분석을 통해 한반도 용오름 발생 사례에 대한 기상학적 발생 및 발달 기구를 규명함

❍ 2014년 6월 경기도 고양 토네이도

❍ 기후변화 요인으로 한반도 용오름 현상의 다발적 발생 가능성에 대비하기 위해 용오름 발생 조건에 대한 기상학적 고찰이 필요함

❍ 기존의 국내 연구는 모델을 활용한 사례분석 연구와 이중편파레이더를 이용한 관측사례분석 등 한가지 사례에 대한 단편적인 연구가 수행되어 한반도에서 발생한 용오름 현상에 대한 포괄적인 이해가 부족함

❍ 본 과제에서는 과거 한반도 용오름 사례의 조사·분석을 통해 한반도 용오름 발생 사례에 대한 기상학적 발생 및 발달 기구를 규명함

❍ 2014년 6월 경기도 고양 토네이도 사례에 대한 고해상도 수치모의를 통해 역학적·열역학적 발달기구를 다각적으로 분석하고, 국내 토네이도에 대한 역학적 수치예보의 가능성을 제시함

❍ 선진국의 용오름 경보 체계를 분석하여 한국형 용오름 현상에 대한 경보 체계 구축 방향을 제시함

❍ 향후 한반도 용오름 예보인자에 대한 연구가 필수적으로 뒷받침되어야 하며, 이들 예보인자를 이용한 확률통계모델의 개발 및 현업 적용이 시급함

❍ 또한 한국형 토네이도성 스톰에 대한 역학적 수치예측이 가능하게 할 고해상도 수치예측시스템 개발이 필요함

(출처 : 요약서 3p)

Abstract ▼

Purpose & Contents
· In order to prepare for the possibility of frequent occurrence of tornadoes in Korea due to global change, it is necessary to investigate meteorological conditions favorable for tornado occurrence. The goal of this study is to find the development mechanisms of tornado cases

Purpose & Contents
· In order to prepare for the possibility of frequent occurrence of tornadoes in Korea due to global change, it is necessary to investigate meteorological conditions favorable for tornado occurrence. The goal of this study is to find the development mechanisms of tornado cases in Korea and suggest the directions of developing forecast techniques and establishing a warning system.

· The contents of this research include: 1) understanding of tornadoes occurred in Korea; 2) study on the previous tornado cases in Korea; and 3) suggestion of directions of developing forecast techniques and establishing a warning system.

Results
· Analysis of the Goyang tornado case (June 10, 2014)
Damage investigation
- Ten farmhouses over an area of 32,212m2 in Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang, has been devastated with a property damage of 1.4 billion KRW in agricultural facilities.

Synoptic analysis
- Increased instability was captured by the analysis of upper level charts and of various instability indices in the skew T – log P diagram.
- Moist air from both east and west was transported to the strom area.
- A convergence line was formed aling the coast near the storm area.
- Strong low-level wind shear was observed.
- At the tornado area, a convective storm was observed with a hook-like echo, and a few cell-type storms were developed nearby.
- An X-band radar showed radial velocities that revealed a tornadic circulation and reflectivity that depicted a hook echo with a small eye.

Conduction of WRF model simulation
- The WRF ARW v3.6 is used with WDM6 microphysics in a one-way nesting system —
1 km grid interval (301×301) and YSU PBL scheme for Domain 1 and 200 m grid interval (451x451) and no PBL scheme for Domain 2.
- Generally the tornadic storm was well simulated but with some phase error.

· Study on the past tornado cases in Korea
- In the Seoul tornado case (September 13, 1964), atmospheric instability rapidly increased and local instability was developed over the tornado area due to movement of mid-level jet stream.
- In the Hongsong tornado case (October 12, 1989), the low level was very warm and moist because the area was located in front of a trough for a long period.
With a dry upper level, a strong cold advection from northeast and warm and moist advection from southwest caused a strong convective instability in the area.

- In the Gwangju tornado case (June 11, 2014), a cold air mass at upper level moved over the pre-existing high equivalent potential temperature area; thus inducing atmospheric instability.

· Study on overseas tornado cases
- In the case of the United States, tornadoes usually occur in a supercell storm which forms when warm and moist air meets cold and dry air over a heated land surface. The Storm Prediction Center produces a short-term forecasts using a probabilistic forecast model.

- In the case of Japan, tornadoes usually occur when a huge nimbocumulus develops due to inflows of upper-level cold air and low-level warm and moist air.

- In the case of China, several factors determines favorable condition for tornado occurrence: 1) potential instability, 2) low-level convergence of moisture flux, 3) local lifting mechanisms, 4) low- and upper-level jets, 5) strong vertical wind shear, and 6) mid-level cold air.

· Directions for developing tornado forecast and warning techniques
Study using a super high-resolution numerical weather prediction model
- It is necessary to understand dynamical/thermodynamic characteristics of tornadoes in Korea through continous study.

- For this purpose we should use a super high-resolution (grid size ≤ 1 km) model to simulate and analyse tornadic storms and to use the obtained knowledge to improve the forecast accuracy.

- It is desirable to establish a testbed system for the super high-resolution model prediction and do a various experiments on parameterization, physical process sensitivities, and advanced data assimilation. This will provide a basis on improving the forecast accuracy and cultivating professional human resources.

Development Korean tornado predictors
- The U.S. utilize a diagram to find favorable conditions for thunderstorm development using some predictors such as CAPE, BRN and shear below 2 km, etc., which provides a useful guidance for thunderstorm forecasts.

- We need to find predictors that are strongly related to tornadic storm development under the Korean atmospheric environment.

- We also need to develop a scale to determine the strength of tornado suitable for the Korean environment that usually produces relatively weak tornadoes.

Development of statistical probability model
- We need to develop a statistical probability model using the predictors under the Korean environment and by applying a tool to estimate optimized coefficients.

- We may consider applying an artificial intelligence technique for the optimal estimation of coefficients.

- We can suggest a guideline for tornado forecast under the Korean environment by applying the statistical probability model to operational forecast.

Establishment of storm-scale observation network and conduction of related application study
- For improving the accuracy of storm-scale forecast, it is essential to establish an optimized storm-scale observation network with relevant observing systems (e.g., dual-polarization Dopler radar, mobile Doppler radar, wind profiler, radiometer, autosonde, meteorological satellite, AWS Mesonet, etc.).

- We can develop sophisticated physical parameterization schemes and do advanced data assimilation experiments using the storm-scale observation data. With accumulated knowledge in this field, we may cultivate an internationally leading research group in the future.

Establishing 4-dimensional analysis databases of tornado and diastrous weather systems
- In order to conduct the post-event analyses on the moving path of and the real-time damage aspects by tornadoes, we need to secure an integrated post-event data set by using drones and collecting real-time video clips.

- In addition, it is necessary to construct a 4-dimensional post-event analyses database for all disastrous weather systems in Korea.

- This will be an important reference material for the disaster-related researches and the national policy making in the future.

Expected Contribution
· Academic/Social Contribution of Results
- Integrated analysis results for tornadoes provide the basis of establishing models for tornado forecasting and warning and enable us to cope with tornado disasters properly.
- To help establishing disaster policies at the national level for considering the social and economic impact on tornadoes.
- To create educational opportunities for the weather-related science and technology unique for the Korean atmospheric environment and to enhance national competitiveness through improving scientific understanding.

· Human resource development plan
- To cultivate professional meteorologists capable of weather analysis specific to storm-scale phenomena through the successful performance of this study.

· Promoting understanding of tornado developent under the Korean environment
- To preoccupy the science and technology in the relatively uncovered research field
- To contribute to academic development of local weather phenomena in Korea

· Building the independent technology of tornado forecasting specific to the Korean environment
- A forecast technique developed at other countries and showed good performance therein may not give the same good result in Korea due to local environmental characteristics.
- To produce reliable research results through the appropriate research suitable for the Korean environment.

· Providing analysis data for tornado to other organizations
- To enable rapid and proper measures in the related industries such as agriculture, forestry, etc.
- To help making a disaster scenario and establishing a policy related to tornado occurrence.

(출처 : SUMMARY 8p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제출문 ... 2
• 보고서 요약서 ... 3
• 요약문 ... 4
• SUMMARY ... 8
• CONTENTS ... 12
• 목차 ... 14
• 표목차 ... 16
• 그림목차 ... 17
• 제 1 장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 23
• 제 1 절 연구개발 목적 ... 23
• 제 2 절 연구개발의 필요성 ... 23
• 제 3 절 연구개발 범위 ... 24
• 제 2 장 국내·외 기술개발 현황 ... 25
• 제 1 절 국외 기술개발 현황 ... 25
• 1.1. 미국 ... 25
• 1.2. 일본 ... 29
• 제 2 절 국내 기술개발 현황 ... 49
• 제 3 장 연구개발 수행 내용 및 결과 ... 56
• 제 1 절 2014년 6월 경기도 고양의 용오름 현상에 대한 이해 ... 56
• 1.1. 용오름 원인 분석 ... 56
• 1.2. 현지 피해상황 조사 분석 ... 58
• 1.3. 일기도, 레이더, AWS 등의 관측 자료를 활용한 기상상황 분석 ... 65
• 1.4. 기상 특보 및 정보 발표상황 ... 85
• 제 2 절 한반도 용오름 사례 ... 85
• 2.1. 과거 용오름 사례 및 기상 특성 ... 85
• 2.2. 미국, 일본 및 중국의 토네이도 기상 특성 ... 93
• 제 3 절 용오름 현상에 대한 대응기술 개발 방안 ... 101
• 제 4 절 토네이도 등 기상재해 대책 및 대응 관련 ... 109
• 제 4 장 목표달성도 및 관련분야에의 기여도 ... 126
• 제 1 절 목표 달성도 ... 126
• 제 2 절 관련분야 기여도 ... 126
• 제 5 장 연구개발성과의 활용계획 ... 127
• 제 6 장 연구 과정에서 수집한 해외 과학기술 정보 ... 128
• 제 7 장 연구개발성과의 보안등급 ... 129
• 제 8 장 국가과학기술종합정보시스템에 등록한 연구시설·장비 현황 ... 130
• 제 9 장 연구개발과제 수행에 따른 연구실 등의 안전 조치 이행 실적 ... 131
• 제 10 장 연구개발과제의 대표적 연구 실적 ... 132
• 제 11 장 기타 사항 ... 133
• 제 12 장 참고 문헌 ... 134
• 끝페이지 ... 136