[보고서]북반구 여름 계절길이의 장기변동 원인 분석

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북반구 여름 계절길이의 장기변동 원인 분석 원문보기

보고서 정보
주관연구기관	포항공과대학교 Pohang University of Science and Technology
연구책임자	민승기
보고서유형	최종보고서
발행국가	대한민국
언어	한국어
발행년월	2018-01
과제시작연도	2017
주관부처	기상청 Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA)
등록번호	TRKO201800022686
과제고유번호	1365002491
사업명	기상·지진See-At기술개발연구
DB 구축일자	2018-06-23
키워드	여름 계절길이.외부 강제력해양 수십년 변동.지역기후.Summer season length.CMIP5.External forcing.Ocean decadal variability.Regional climate.

초록 ▼

○ 여름 계절길이지수에 대한 알고리즘 개발 및 민감도 분석
○ 관측자료를 활용하여 북반구 및 동아시아를 포함한 세부지역의 여름 계절길이에 대한 장기 변동의 시공간 패턴 분석
○ 여름 계절길이 지수와 평균 및 극한기온 변화의 연관성 분석
○ CMIP5 모델자료에서 여름 계절길이 지수의 모의성능 평가
○ 모델자료에서 모든(인위적+자연적) 강제력 및 개별 강제력이 여름 계절길이지수에 미치는 영향 패턴을 분석
○ 해양 수십년 변동성(PDO 및 AMO)이 여름 계절길이지수의 장기 변동에 미치는 영향 분석
○

Abstract ▼

Purpose & Contents
○ Analyzing long-term variation patterns in summer season length over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and its subregions

- Collection of daily temperature data from observations and CMIP5 multi-model and literature review of past methods
- Algorithm development for summer season length index (onset· withdraw, duration and peak day)
- Analyzing spatio-temporal pattern of variations: linear trend and decadal variability
- Examining sub-regional (including East Asia) changes in summer season length and their association with surface temperature trends

○ Assessing relative contributions of external forcing and oceanic variability to the observed trends in summer season length

- Examining impacts of all (anthropogenic-plus-natural) forcing on summer season length
- Examining impact of individual (greenhouse gases and natural external) forging on summer season length
- Examining influence of oceanic decadal variability on summer season length based on CMIP5 experiments
- Quantification of relative contributions of external forcing and ocean variability to the observed trends in summer season length

Results
- Publications : 3 international journal (SCI) papers
- Presentations : 2 domestic, 2 international conferences
- Manpower training : 2 Master's degree students

Expected Contribution
- Providing scientific basis for preparing climate change adaption practices by quantifying causes of long-term changes in NH and regional (including East Asia) summer climate characteristics

- Contribution to the improvement of global climate models by evaluating state of the art climate models in terms of impact relevant summer climate behaviors

- Improved understanding of the past and future regional climate change and variability through systematic investigation of ocean variability influences on NH regional climate

(출처 : SUMMARY 5p)

목차 Contents

표지 ... 1
제 출 문 ... 2
보고서 요약서 ... 3
요 약 문 ... 4
SUMMARY ... 5
Contents ... 6
목차 ... 7
제1장. 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 8
1. 연구개발 목적 ... 8
2. 연구개발의 필요성 ... 8
3. 연구개발 범위 ... 9
제2장. 국내외 기술 개발 현황 ... 10
1. 국내 기술 수준 현황 ... 10
2. 국외 기술 수준 현황 ... 10
제3장. 연구 수행 내용 및 성과 ... 11
1. 관측에서 나타난 여름 계절길이의 변동 패턴 분석 ... 11
2. CMIP5를 이용한 지역별 여름 계절길이 변동의 원인 분석 ... 47
제4장. 목표 달성도 및 관련 분야 기여도 ... 82
1. 목표 달성도 ... 82
2. 관련 분야 기여도 ... 84
제5장. 연구개발성과의 활용계획 ... 85
제6장. 연구 과정에서 수집한 해외 과학기술 정보 ... 86
제7장. 연구개발성과의 보안등급 ... 87
제8장. 국가과학기술종합정보시스템에 등록한 연구시설·장비 현황 ... 88
제9장. 연구개발과제 수행에 따른 연구실 등의 안전 조치 이행 실적 ... 89
제10장. 연구개발과제의 대표적 연구 실적 ... 90
제11장. 기타 사항 ... 91
제12장. 참고 문헌 ... 92
끝페이지 ... 95

표/그림 (49)

표 List of CMIP5 models and experiments. Number of ensemble members for each model is shown for ALL, GHG and NAT experiments and the total number of model is shown for each experiment.
표 (a) Schematic illustrating the definitions of the summer indices (onset, withdrawal, duration and peak date). Horizontal line correponds to the local temperature threshold (75th percentile). (b) The spatial distribution of local temperature thresholds across the Northern Hemisphere. Zonal mean distribution is displayed on the right side.
표 The spatial correlation between high 30th percentile (yellow), 20th percentile (orange) and absolute temperature threshold 25℃ (blue) with 25th percentile over climatological mean of Summer (a) onset and (b) withdrawal in Northern Hemisphere.
표 The spatial correlation between high 30th percentile (yellow), 20th percentile (orange) and absolute temperature threshold 25℃ (blue) with 25th percentile over trend of summer (a) onset and (b) withdrawal in Northern Hemisphere.
표 The comparison of trend of Summer season indices over Korea peninsula region(127.5°E, 37.5°N).
표 The distribution of climatology (top) and trend (bottom) of summer (a) onset and (b) withdrawal when applying Butterworth filter (left) and 2nd harmonics (right).
표 The distribution of and trend of summer (a) onset, (b) withdrawal and (c) duration when applying fourth-degree (left) and fifth-degree polynomial (right).
표 The spatial patterns of the observed climatology(1953-2012 averages) for (a) summer onset, (b) withdrawal, (c) duration and (d) peak date in the Northern Hemisphere.
표 Spatial distribution of the observed trends in (a) summer onset, (b) withdrawal, (c) duration and (d) peak date over 1953-2012. Stippling indicates statistically significant trends at the 5% level.
표 (a) Regional domains used in this study and abbreviations for the corresponding regions, and (b) Regional trends of summer onset (green bar), withdrawal (red bar) and duration (sum of green and red bars); asterisk indicates a statistically insignificant trend.
표 The observed regional climatological mean and trend over summer onset, withdrawal and duration with the information of domain.
표 The main 5 climate zone following Köppen-Geiger climate zone classification. Zones of Equatorial (purple), Arid (blue), Temperate (green), Snow (yellow) and Polar (red) climate are shown.
표 The trend of Summer season indices over 4 representative climate zone and middle·high latitude divided by 50°N in Northern Hemisphere.
표 The trend of summer onset (green), withdrawal (red) and duration (orange) over 4 representative climate zone and middle·high latitude divided by 50°N in Northern Hemisphere.
표 The temporal correlation between natural variabilities with EOF mode of summer onset, withdrawal and duration.
표 The 1st and 2nd EOF model and PC corresponding timeseries of (a) summer onset, (b) withdrawal, (c) duration and (d) peak date over Northern Hemisphere.
표 The temporal correlation between multi-decadal variabilities filtered summer season indices and natural variabilities as PDO and AMO.
표 The trend of (a),(d) summer onset, (b),(e) withdrawal and (c),(f) duration for the first-half period(1953-1979, 27yrs)(left) and second-half period(1980-2012, 33yrs)(right) over Northern Hemisphere.
표 The trend of summer onset, withdrawal and duration for the whole analysis period(1953-2012, 60yrs), first-half period(1953-1979, 27yrs) and second-half period(1980-2012, 33yrs) over 6 subregions in Northern Hemisphere.
표 The trend of summer duration for the first-half period(1953-1979, 27yrs)(left) and second-half period(1980-2012, 33yrs)(right) from observation, ALL, GHG, NAT and SUL(ALL-GHG-NAT) experiments over Northern Hemisphere.
표 (a) Spatial patterns of the observed trends in summer mean (JJAS) temperatures (b) Spatial distributions of the temporal correlation coefficients between the raw and detrended JJAS temperatures and the summer duration indices over 1953-2012. Area mean correlation values are given in the upper right corner.
표 The spatial correlation between the trends of summer season indices and monthly temperature (from May to September) and summer mean temperature (JJAS).
표 The regression coefficients between monthly temperature (from May to September) and summer mean temperature (JJAS) and summer season indices over 6 subregions in Northern Hemisphere. The values in parenthesis indicate temporal correlation coefficients.
표 The regression coefficients between intensity indices (TXx, TNx) of monthly extreme temperature(from May to September) and summer season indices over 6 subregions in Northern Hemisphere. The values in parenthesis indicate temporal correlation coefficients.
표 The regression coefficients between frequency indices (TX90, TN90) of monthly extreme temperature(from May to September) and summer season indices over 6 subregions in Northern Hemisphere. The values in parenthesis indicate temporal correlation coefficients.
표 The spatial patterns of the climatology(1953-2012 averages) of multi-model mean for (a) summer onset, (b) withdrawal, (c) duration and (d) peak date(bottom) from ALL experiment in the Northern Hemisphere.
표 (a) Spatial distribution of the summer onset (ONS) and withdrawal (WIT) climatology obtained from ALL multi-model means, (b) multi-model mean bias (ALL minus observations) where asterisk indicates significant biases at the 5% level based on one sample t-test, and (c) Taylor diagrams for the summer onset(left) and withdrawal(right) for individual CMIP5 models (black dots) and their multi-model means (red cross) from ALL experiments.
표 The area mean bias and Taylor skill score of summer onset and withdrawal over the Northern Hemisphere among ALL forcing models.
표 Spatial distributions of the multi-model mean trends of summer onset (upper), withdrawal (middle) and duration (bottom) for ALL experiment. Asterisk indicates grids with good inter-model agreement in the sign of trends (more than 80%).
표 The contribution on trend of summer duration index of long-term(green), multi-decadal(red) and short-term(orange) variabilities filtered from ALL experiment over 6 subregion. Error bars represent the 5th to 95th percentile ranges from model of ALL experiments.
표 The spatial correlation between the trends of summer season indices and monthly temperature (from May to September) and summer mean temperature (JJAS) from ALL experiments in averaged Northern Hemisphere. The values in parenthesis represent the 5th to 95th percentile ranges.
표 The spatial correlation between the trends of summer season onset (green), withdrawal (red) and duration (orange) and monthly temperature (from May to September) and summer mean temperature (JJAS) from ALL experiments over 6 subregions. Error bars represent the 5th to 95th percentile ranges from model of ALL experiments.
표 The spatial correlation coefficients between monthly extreme temperature indices (from May to September) and summer season indices in Northern Hemisphere. The values in parenthesis indicate 5th to 95th percentile ranges from model of ALL experiments.
표 The spatial pattern of temporal correlation between summer season indices and monthly averaged temperature among summer season from multi-model mean of ALL experiments.
표 The spatial pattern of regression between summer season indices and monthly averaged temperature among summer season from multi-model mean of ALL experiments.
표 Spatial distributions of the multi-model mean trends of summer onset (upper), withdrawal (middle) and duration (bottom) for GHG experiment. Asterisk indicates grids with good inter-model agreement in the sign of trends (more than 80%).
표 Spatial distributions of the multi-model mean trends of summer onset (upper), withdrawal (middle) and duration (bottom) for NAT experiment. Asterisk indicates grids with good inter-model agreement in the sign of trends (more than 80%).
표 Spatial distributions of the multi-model mean trends of summer onset and withdrawal for ALL, GHG and NAT experiments. The observed trends (OBS) are displayed again for comparison. Area mean values are given in the upper right corner. Asterisk indicates grids with good inter-model agreement in the sign of trends (more than 80%).
표 Domain averaged trends in summer onset (top left), withdrawal (top right) and duration (bottom) from observations (black bars), and multi-model means of ALL (green), GHG (red) and NAT (blue bars) experiments. Error bars represent the 5th to 95th percentile ranges estimated from each experiment.
표 Regional trend of summer season indices from observation and multi-model means of ALL, GHG and NAT experiments (day/60yrs).
표 (a) The spatial pattern of temporal correlation between raw (upper) and detrended (bottom) PDO and AMO indices from observation and HadISST. (b) The spatial pattern of temporal correlation between raw (upper) and detrended (bottom) PDO and AMO indices and SST from multi-model mean of ALL experiments.
표 (a) Spatial pattern of temporal correlation between observed PDO and AMO indices and summer season indices. (b) Spatial pattern of temporal correlation between raw (upper) and detrended (bottom) PDO and AMO indices and summer duration index from multi-model mean of ALL experiments over the Northern Hemisphere.
표 (a) Spatial pattern of regression between observed PDO and AMO indices and summer season indices. (b) Spatial pattern of regression between raw (upper) and detrended (bottom) PDO and AMO indices and summer duration index from multi-model mean of ALL experiments over the Northern Hemisphere
표 Spatial correlation between AMO(orange) and PDO (blue) indices among each 22 individual CMIP5 model from ALL experiment and observation. Bold black horizontal line indicates multi-model mean values of AMO and PDO indices.
표 The list of best reproduction CMIP5 models of PDO and AMO.
표 The attributable trend ratios to the observed total trends [defined as Eqs. (3) and (4)] of ALL forcing (green bars), PDO (purple bars) and AMO (orange bars) for summer onset (top left), withdrawal (top right) and duration (bottom). Error bars indicate 5–95% ranges of the attributable trend ratios estimated from individual models.
표 Correlation coefficients between AMO and PDO indices and residual time series of the summer season onset, withdrawal, and duration for each region. Residual time series (ε) is obtained by removing the forced portion from the raw observations based on linear regression against the ALL results as described in Eq. (2). 5-year means are used in this calculation and asterisk (double asterisks) represents significant correlation at 10% (5%) level based on t-test.
표 The attributable trend ratio to the observed total trends of ALL forcing (green bars), PDO (purple bars) and AMO (orange bars) for summer duration. 5~95% ranges of the attributable trend ratios estimated from individual models of all CMIP5 models (black error bars) and best model groups (blue error bars)
표 Histogram of PDO and AMO contribution using stepwise regression over EastAsia region.

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기대효과(Effect) :	-

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북반구 여름 계절길이의 장기변동 원인 분석 원문보기