초록

○ 도심지에 위치해 있는 산사태 취약지역을 중심으로 산지에서 토사재해 발생 시 도심지 토사재해 예측 3D 시뮬레이터 개발
○ 토사재해 발생위치, 토사재해 이동 및 확산영역을 추정하여 토사재해로 인한 직접적인 영향권 및 간접적인 영향권을 분석함으로써 강우, 지반진동 및 기후변화시나리오에 따른 위험성 분석결과를 표출
○ 도심지 토사재해 위험성에 대한 대응전략 및 위험 범위 등의 정보를 제공하는 통합관리시스템 구축 함

(출처 : 요약서 4p)

Abstract ▼

Ⅱ. Research Development Subject Purpose
A. Purpose and Necessity
(1) Research of Necessity
o As the result of increased frequency of localised heavy rainfall and typhoon appearance by recent climate change, damages from sediment disaster has been increased. Also, the size of damaged area fr

Ⅱ. Research Development Subject Purpose
A. Purpose and Necessity
(1) Research of Necessity
o As the result of increased frequency of localised heavy rainfall and typhoon appearance by recent climate change, damages from sediment disaster has been increased. Also, the size of damaged area from landslide had been rapidly increased by 231ha in 1980s, 349ha in 1990s and 713ha in 2000s.
o This result shows that the occurrence scale of landslide in 2000s was increased more than 3 times compare with 1980s.
o As more than 65% of national territory is composed with mountain areas, development of mountain area from urbanisation is an essential element. Also, dangerousness of sediment disaster has been raised since steep slope land and mountain areas are located to Inner and near urban areas. Therefore, it is necessary to have countermeasures against raising of dangerousness.
o Recently, dangerousness of sediment disaster has been increased due to increase number of educational, medical, small industrial and suburban buildings are entering outer urban mountain areas. Since, urban sediment disaster prediction technology and integrated management system are inadequate, it is necessary to construct integrated management system and 3D sediment disaster simulation technology with consideration of characteristics of urban buildings.
o Risk factor of potential sediment disaster in urban area is very high due to high artificial development facilities and site revolution rate. Also, It has very high risk of damaging infrastructure and life loss near lower mountain area when sediment disaster occurs. Therefore, it is necessary to make economic and efficient ground counter strategy for sediment disaster high risk areas based on sophisticated sediment disaster prediction simulation.

(2) Research Purpose
o It is to develop an integrated management system which elicits correspondence strategy against danger of sediment disaster in urban area. It also presents risk analysis result regarding following rainfall, ground vibration and climate change scenarios. Through 3D sediment disaster prediction simulation focused on area where is vulnerable from landslide and located near urban area, it analyses direct and indirect influence area from sediment disaster by predicts occurrence, movement and proliferation of the disaster.

B. Research Area
(1) Construction of Urban Sediment Integrated Management System
o Establishment of urban sediment disaster management direction(Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements)
o Development of urban sediment disaster rainfall scenario (APEC Climate Center)
o Development of integrated management system (Noaa SNC)

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator Technology
o Construction of DB regarding geographical characteristics and range of potential sediment disaster mountain area during rainfall (Korea University)
o Prediction of occurrence quantity and development of sediment disaster occurrence location model (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
o Development of mountain area sediment disaster FEM simulator(University of Ulsan)
o Urban sediment disaster flow, proliferation and size prediction model(Hongik University)
o Development of 3D sediment disaster prediction simulator (E8IGHT)

III. Research Development Contents and Range
A. 1^st Year
(1) Construction of Urban Sediment Integrated Management System
(A) Construction of Sediment Disaster Analysis DB and Elicitation of Scenarios(KRIHS)
- Creation of scenario which considers rainfall and geographical characteristics
- Establishment of urban area sediment disaster integrated management direction through domestic and international current state investigation
(B) Development of integrated geo-spatial, geological, climatic and vegetation environment data into 3D inventory based on sediment disaster space coordinates(Noaa SNC)
- Standardization of sediment disaster analysis DB data by building data classification system with data collection and data analysis
- Establishment of 3D sediment disaster inventory data standardization plan
(C) Construction of Urban Integrated Management System based on Urban Disaster Prevention Facility life cycle management process by using 3D Simulation Technology
- Data collection and analysis for urban emergency facilities
- Collection and analysis of data regarding urban disaster prevention facility
- Collection and analysis of definition and life cycle management data regarding urban disaster prevention facility
- Proposal of urban disaster prevention facility life cycle management direction
- Defines of urban disaster prevention facility life cycle management processes

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulation Technology
(A) Development of sediment disaster occurrence location which considers rainfall and ground vibration (Korea University)
- Investigation of sediment disaster countermeasure method and selection of measurement factor based on geographical characteristics
- Investigation of rainfall characteristics criteria based on geographical characteristics, and establishment of research plan
(B) Development of sediment disaster occurrence location model and prediction of occurrence quantity (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Investigation of domestic and international geospatial location prediction model development cases
- Elicitation of existing model problems through case analysis
(C) Understanding of Sediment Disaster Occurred Site Soil Stratum (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- On-site Test for understanding sediment disaster occurred site soil stratum
(D) Development of 3D Sediment Disaster Movement and Size Prediction Model
- Sophisticated analysis of existing sediment disaster movement interpretation model
- Analysis of sediment disaster movement
- Elicitation of sediment disaster prediction model influence factors
(E) Urban Area Sediment Disaster Transfer, Proliferation and Size Prediction Model(Hongik University)
- Analysis of existing preceding research and investigation of current state
- Inducement of governed equation which considers geoengineering mechanism
- Analysis of commercialised ground interpretation program and review of differentiation plan
(F) Development of 3D Sediment Disaster Prediction Simulator (E8IGHT)
- Collection of documents regarding engine algorithm, collection and analysis of 3D simulation related source code

B. 2^nd Year
(1) Construction of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management system
(A) Establishment of Integrated Management System Direction and Elicitation of Urban Counter strategy (KRIHS)
- Landslide vulnerable mountain area and urban area rage
- Selection of mountain area DB and urban area DB
- Establishment of system management direction
(B) Construction of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System Prototype(Noah SNC)
- Construction of Inventory which includes sediment disaster influence factors and integrated system management attributes regarding case areas
- Construction of 3D inventory which includes topography, building and structures regarding case areas
(C) Development of Urban Disaster Prevention Facility Management Module
- Understanding of current state of sediment disaster prevention facilities management
- Defines of module requirements (domestic and international investigation for related system, Conclusion of user, researchers and experts’ opinions)
- Designing module structure and DB
- Construction of DB regarding trial urban disaster prevention facilities

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator Technology
(A) Measuring of volumetric water content by using inter penetrative physical exploration equipment, and computation of ground integer (Korea University)
- Fulfillment of indoor experiments for elicitation of rainfall characteristics based on topological characteristics
- Analysis of indoor experiments data and supplementation of problems
- Establishment of on-site experiments plan for elicitation of rainfall characteristics based on topological characteristics
(B) Development of Sediment Disaster Occurrence Location Model and Prediction of Occurrence Quantity (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Selection of potential sediment disaster area prediction model
- Development of potential sediment disaster area and initial occurrence quantity prediction program prototype
(C) Analysis of Ground Characteristics (Weathered Residual Soils) based on Bedrock Types (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Analysis of ground characteristics of 9 regional (south) case areas based on bedrock types
(D) Development of Mountain Area Sediment Disaster FEM Simulator (University of Ulsan)
- Induction of governed equations which interpret debris flow and development of program algorithm
- Development of new interpretation technology regarding characteristics of debris flow
(E) Urban Area Sediment Transfer, Proliferation and Size Prediction Model(HongikUniversity)
- Reflection of numerical conspiration of urban buildings, structures and steep slope with consideration of mass creation and passing speed on numerical model
- Summarization and analysis of numerical model influence factors
- Verification of sediment disaster prediction model prototype with actual data and interpreted data
- Construction of connecting measures with 3D sediment disaster prediction simulator
(F) Development of 3D Sediment Disaster Prediction Simulator (E8IGHT)
- Development of 3d inventory system
- Construction of real case areas’ 3D inventories
- Development of input file creation module for system manager interpretation

C. 3^rd Year
(1) Construction of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System
(A) Establishment of urban sediment disaster management direction (KRIHS)
- Proposal of basic statistic data of vulnerable areas by using integrated management system DB
- Proposal of urban planning strategy against urban sediment disaster
(B) Rainfall Scenario Standard Set-Up and Construction of Data for Risk Analysis of Urban Sediment Disaster (APCC Center)
- Defines of rainfall scenario by setting standard rainfall target value through previous domestic landslides analysis
- Construction of rainfall scenario time series data by using rainfall amount data
(C) Development of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System(NoaaSNC)
- Improvement of main menu system and creation of To-be Model
- Establishment of development direction of urban sediment disaster integrated management system

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator Technology
(A) Construction of DB regarding geographical characteristics and range of potential sediment disaster mountain area during rainfall (Korea University)
- Completion of new interpenetrative equipment (PTDR) blueprint and creation
- On-site experiments to elicit rainfall characteristics based on ground characteristics
- Analysis of on-site experiment data and improvement of problems
(B) Prediction of occurrence quantity and development of sediment disaster occurrence location model (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Implementation of developed model on previously sediment disaster occurred areas
- Development of potential sediment disaster prediction program
(C) Analysis of Ground Characteristics (Weathered Residual Soils) based on Bedrock Types (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Analysis of ground characteristics of 10 regional case areas based on bedrock types
- Statistical classification of ground parameters
(D) Development of Mountain Area Sediment Disaster FEM Simulator (University of Ulsan)
- Verification of developed program through actual debris flow experiment data
- Execution of indoor model test for improvement of program dynamical component model
(E) Urban Area Sediment Disaster Transfer, Proliferation and Size Prediction Model(Hongik University)
- Development of algorithm which considers urban sediment disaster transfer, proliferation, size prediction model, computation of influential factors, mass creation and passing speed
- Verification and implementation of sediment disaster numerical model
(F) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator (E8IGHT)
- Construction of 3D urban area model data for 3D simulator
- Development of 3D simulator by using virtual interpreted data

D. 4^th Year
(1) Construction of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System
(A) Establishment of urban sediment disaster management direction (KRIHS)
- Enlargement of intensively managed area
- Spatial information for urban planning of vulnerable area
- Guideline for sediment disaster preventive urban planning
- Search for commercialization methods of sediment disaster integrated management system
(B) Rainfall Scenario Standard Set-Up and Construction of Data for Risk Analysis of Urban Sediment Disaster (APCC Center)
- Collection of CMFS climate changing scenario data, and application of spatio-temporal details and technology
- Set-up target value of sediment disaster creating rainfall standard by considering uncertainty of climate change
(C) Development of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System(NoaaSNC)
- DB construction and processing of current year subject areas
- Improvement of system menu and establishment of advancement measures

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator Technology
(A) Construction of DB regarding geographical characteristics and range of potential sediment disaster mountain area during rainfall (Korea University)
- On-site experiment for strength of sediment disaster ground and evaluation of water content characteristics
- On-site experiment data analysis
- Indoor experiment of engineering constant computation and data analysis of debris flow movement prediction simulation
(B) Development of sediment disaster occurrence location model and prediction of occurrence quantity (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- Prediction of sediment disaster occurrence location and verification of initial occurrence quantity
- On-site investigation and collection of sample in case areas
- Implementation of preliminary intensively managed area program
(C) Understanding of Sediment Disaster Occurred Site Soil Stratum (Gyeonggi Disaster Management Institute)
- On-site Test for understanding sediment disaster occurred site soil stratum
(D) Development of mountain area sediment disaster FEM simulator (University of Ulsan)
- Verification of program solver and review of linking 3D simulator
- Development of pre-post processor for program useability increase
- Implementation of partial preliminary intensively managed area program
(E) Urban Area Sediment Disaster Transfer, Proliferation and Size Prediction Model(Hongik University)
- Analysis of linking methods and actual conspiration accuracy to use numerical model
- Verification of test_bed area program
(G) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator (E8IGHT)
- Verification of 3D simulator technology and securing reliability
- Implementation of user customized sediment disaster dangerousness equation
- Verification of test_bed area program

V. Final Research Result and Evaluation for Implementation
(1)Construction of Urban Sediment Disaster Integrated Management System
o To fulfil sediment disaster preventive urban planning, it is possible to provide information through sediment disaster integrated dangerousness creation method for vulnerability and expose characteristics of near urban area and results from sophisticated simulation focused on potential sediment disaster risk mountain area.
o Elicitation of urban planned strategy proposal method by grade which is from sediment disaster integrated dangerousness
o Proposal of technology that can non-structurally response consistent method with structural countermeasure in sediment disaster prevention perspective.
o By designation and announcement of potential sediment disaster risk zones with objective investigation criteria and consistent spatial information data, it is possible to be provided as base data of promoting urban preventive administration regarding existing potential sediment disaster risk area and new potential sediment disaster occurrence zone.
o Also, consistent execution of land management administration against sediment disaster in urban planning and management planning process which are priority of land use influences lower priority plans from other department (Korea Forest Service). Therefore, it can handle sediment disaster problem that can be missed effectively.

(2) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Simulator Technology
o In this research, engineering constants from 30 sites have been calculated and used for debris movement prediction simulation
o The accuracy of movement prediction depends on how accurate the constants are. With the direct shearing equipment from this research, it was possible to get more accurate result than existing equipment
o Since those are the experimental values from each site, it is possible to achieve high reliability than using experience values
o Development of accuracy improved sediment disaster occurrence location and initial occurrence quantity prediction model (program)
o Provision of sediment disaster location and initial occurrence quantity result values regarding 31 domestic sites
o Provision of quantitative simulation results to existing “pre-disaster-influence review” and “climate change disaster vulnerability analysis”
o Developed mountain area debris flow interpretation program is possible to consider high percentage of volume water contain soil particle flow characteristics rather than treating debris flow as liquid flow with high viscosity
o Use finite element method from improved Gakerkin formulation to resolve numerical instability by increment form in finite difference method / finite volume method,
o Through the method, interpretation regarding complex kinematic boundary conditions such as mountain area and debris barrier become more convenient. It is developed to be considerable regarding debris flow volume change by river-bed erosion and trigger point
o Improvement of technology utilisation by implementing module with reflection of regional characteristics
o Proposal of preventive structure recurrence method with sink module
o It is developed to prevent sediment disaster in advance with consideration of urban characteristics
o Preparation technological superiority in sediment disaster prediction model application level field through sediment disaster 3D visualisation model development based on high-precise spatial information
o Expectation of foreign software dependency in domestic spatial information market through securing core technology related with sediment disaster
o Domestic landslide prevention system is highly depending on foreign product, but it is possible to be substituted with the 3D sediment disaster simulator that developed in this research.

VI. Research Result and Implementation Plan
(A) Development of Urban Sediment Disaster Vulnerable Area Integrated Management System
o When damages from sediment disaster is concerned / resident evacuation education and business support for the damages
o Role of Sediment disaster prevention in urban areas
o It is believed that it will be possible to establish preventive urban planning in urban areas by providing detailed analysis data on disaster-related disasters in the 1st grade vulnerable areas in the second stage of disaster vulnerability analysis.
o It is expected to be effective in redeveloping related laws and guidelines and improving organization management system to improve the system for establishing integrated management system for all hazardous areas for mitigation of disasters in urban areas.
o In addition, it is possible to grasp the scale of damage through comparing and analysing the current rainfall and the past rainfall in case of concern about the Sediment disaster damage, and to predict the movement route of the earthy material through the 3D simulation image by the rainfall intensity, It can be used as basic data for the establishment of urban planning policy, and it is possible to efficiently support the work of local government facility related person through the maintenance function of sediment disaster prevention facility

(B) Development of 3D Urban Sediment Disaster Prediction 3D Simulator Technology
o This research uses computed engineering constants and possible to get high reliability simulation result. It is possible to build efficient disaster preventive system based on the result
o It is expected to contribute on establishment of policies regarding domestic sediment disaster. Also, it can contribute on promoting reduction of disaster vulnerable area by effective designation of disaster preventive facilities which considers potential sediment disaster risk area
o It is possible to evaluate various risk factors for the sediment disaster area through the mountainous terrain Sediment disaster simulator considering the effects of domestic topography and environment and to design and implement disaster prevention test materials to minimize the damage of sediment disaster Suggestions are expected to be possible
o In addition, it is possible to construct a database on the research results data for the whole country.
o Due to the development of the Sediment disaster prediction program, which can take into consideration regional characteristics, reference data can be used when the budget is prepared. By using a prediction program with reduced uncertainty, trial and error can be reduced
o Through the developed 3D simulator, it is possible to propose rational criteria such as potential sediment disaster risk area management and preparation of measures

(출처 : SUMMARY 27p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제 출 문 ... 2
• 보고서 요약서 ... 4
• 요 약 문 ... 5
• SUMMARY ... 27
• CONTENTS ... 48
• 목차 ... 50
• 표목차 ... 52
• 그림목차 ... 58
• 제1장 연구개발과제 개요 ... 74
• 제1절 연구개발의 목적 및 필요성 ... 74
• 제2절 연구개발의 내용 및 범위 ... 76
• 제3절 연구개발 결과가 관련분야에서 차지하는 위치 ... 81
• 제2장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 87
• 제1절 국내 기술개발 현황 ... 87
• 제2절 국외 기술개발 현황 ... 91
• 제3장 연구개발 수행 내용 및 결과 ... 94
• 1. 도심지 토사재해 취약지역 통합관리시스템 구축 ... 94
• 가. 도심지 토사재해 관리방향 수립 ... 94
• 나. 강우시나리오 개발 ... 176
• 다. 지반특성 분석 ... 223
• 2. 도심지 토사재해 예측 거동 분석 ... 262
• 가. 토사재해 발생위치 예측 및 초기 발생량 예측 ... 262
• 나. 산악지형 토사재해 시뮬레이터 개발 ... 347
• 다. 도심지역 토사재해 이송·확산 및 규모예측 모형 ... 430
• 라. 토사재해 예측 3D 시뮬레이터 개발 ... 485
• 3. 도심지 토사재해 통합관리시스템 ... 551
• 제4장 최종 연구 성과 및 적용실적 ... 606
• 제1절 최종 연구 성과 ... 606
• 제2절 주요 연구성과 (적용실적) ... 614
• 제5장 연구목표 달성 및 효과 ... 619
• 제1절 연구개발 최종목표 달성도 ... 619
• 제2절 연구개발 성과의 기술적 효과분석 ... 623
• 제3절 연구개발 성과의 경제적 효과분석 ... 625
• 제4절 연구개발 성과의 정책적 효과분석 ... 627
• 제6장 연구성과의 활용 및 추가연구 필요성 ... 629
• 제1절 연구 성과의 활용방안 ... 629
• 제2절 추가 연구의 필요성 ... 631
• 제7장 연구과정에서 수집한 해외 과학기술 정보 ... 633
• 참고문헌 ... 635
• 끝페이지 ... 643