[보고서]동해안 지역에서 동풍유입과 관련한 기상특성에 대한 이해

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주관연구기관

이화여자대학교
Ewha Womans University

연구책임자

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참여연구자

서기성

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최종보고서

발행국가

대한민국

언어

한국어

발행년월

2019-12

과제시작연도

2019

주관부처

기상청
Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA)

등록번호

TRKO202200009848

과제고유번호

1365003098

사업명

기상·지진See-At기술개발연구(R&D)

DB 구축일자

2022-09-29

키워드

동해안.동풍기류(동해기류).수치모델.사전진단인자.예보정확도.Eastern coast.Kor’easterlies.Numerical weather prediction model.Predictors.Forecast skill.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO202200009848

표 The percentage at each station with the Kor’easterlies occurred
표 The percentage of weather phenomena by the Kor’easterlies
표 The number of cases per year for the Kor’easterlies with precipitation
표 The number of monthly precipitation occurrences
표 The seasonal ratio of precipitation occurrences by the Kor’easterlies
표 The precipitation type ratio in precipitation occurrences by the Kor’easterlies
표 The frequency of spots with heavy rain events are observed
표 The frequency of spots with ordinary rain events are observed
표 The frequency of spots with heavy snow events are observed
표 The frequency of spots with snow events are observed
표 Okhotsk trough type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, with ordinary rain occurs in spring
표 Flat type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when ordinary rain occurs in Autumn
표 Ridge type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when ordinary rain occurs in Autumn
표 Trough type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when heavy rain occurs in Summer
표 Trough/Ridge type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when ordinary rain occurs in Summer
표 Okhotsk trough type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when ordinary rain occurs in winter
표 Flat type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when heavy snow occurs in Spring
표 Trough type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when heavy snow occurs in winter
표 Trough type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when heavy snow occurs in Spring
표 Trough/Ridge type pattern with 500 hPa geopotential height, when heavy snow occurs in Spring
표 The structure of the DNN Model
표 The structure of the CNN Model
표 The structure of the LSTM Model
표 The deep learning technique concept flowchart
표 The range of east coast grid points
표 The 11x11 data table for the precipitation type classification model
표 The number of used data for model
표 The learning parameter for each models
표 The learning model results of Sokcho region
표 The results graphs of Sokcho area for rainfall and snowfall
표 The learning model results of UlJin region
표 The results graphs of UlJn area for rainfall and snowfall
표 The number of used data for a Case–24h model
표 The learning model results of Gangnueng region(a Case–24h)
표 The results graphs of Gangnueng area for rainfall and snowfall (a Case-24h)
표 The learning model results of Ulsan region(a Case–24h)
표 The results graphs of Ulsan area for rainfall and snowfall (a Case-24h)
표 The 10x10 forward data of the “Kor
표 An example of pressure levels prediction for Gangneung grid point
표 The number of data used for 1000 hPa
표 The number of data used for 925 hPa
표 The number of data used for 850 hPa
표 The parameters of specific models
표 The performance indicator results of specific pressure levels
표 The performance graphs by technique at 1000hPa (2008-2017)
표 The performance graphs by technique at 925hPa (2008-2017)
표 The performance graphs by technique at 850hPa (2008-2017)
표 The parameters of specific models (2013~2014)
표 The performance indicator results of specific pressure levels(2013~2014)
표 The performance graphs by technique at 1000hPa (2008-2017)
표 The performance graphs by technique at 850hPa (2013-2014)
표 The Parameters of LSTM (2008~2017)
표 The performance indicator results of LSTM modle at specific pressure levels (2008~2017)
표 The LSTM performance graphs by technique at specific pressure levels (2008-2014)
표 The standard pressure wind rose graph at Sokcho station for snow (heavy snow and general snow) and rain (heavy rain and general rain).
표 The standard pressure wind rose graph at Sokcho station for heavy rain and general rain
표 The standard pressure wind rose graph at Sokcho station for heavy snow and general snow
표 Vertical wind direction averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Sokcho station
표 Vertical wind direction averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Gangnueng station
표 Vertical wind direction averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Pohang station
표 Vertical wind speed averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Sokcho station
표 Vertical wind speed averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Gangnueng station
표 Vertical wind speed averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Pohang station
표 Vertical temperature and dew-point temperature averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Sokcho station
표 Vertical temperature and dew-point temperature averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Gangnueng station
표 Vertical temperature and dew-point temperature averages and distribution from offshore to coast and inland at Pohang station
표 Cumulative precipitation (mm) for 1 hour at 11 ground observation points on the east coast, 10 years anomaly
표 Average temperature field for a specific case
표 10 year average field of 24 hour accumulated precipitation for 11 station in east coast line (mm)
표 Same as Fig. 45, but averaged temperature field
표 10 year average field of 24 hour accumulated fresh snow for 11 station in east coast line (cm)
표 Same as Fig. 50, but averaged temperature field
표 Autocorrelogram of temperature at 1000 hPa for heavy rainfall cases
표 Autocorrelogram of geopotential height at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Autocorrelogram of specific rain water content at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases.
표 Autocorrelogram of specific snow water content at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Autocorrelogram of wind direction at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases
표 Autocorrelogram of wind direction at 1000 hPa for snow cases
표 Autocorrelogram of wind speed at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Autocorrelogram of wind speed at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Autocorrelogram of u-wind at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local Moran’s I of temperature at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local Moran’s I of specific snow water content at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Z-score of averaged local Moran’s I of temperature at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Z-score of averaged local Moran’s I of specific snow water content at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of temperature at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of geopotential height at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of geopotential height at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of geopotential height at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of specific rain water at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of specific rain water at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of specific snow water at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of specific snow water at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of specific snow water at 1000 hPa for snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of wind direction at 1000 hPa for heavy snow cases
표 Averaged local general G of wind direction at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of wind speed at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of u-wind at 1000 hPa for heavy rain cases
표 Averaged local general G of u-wind at 1000 hPa for rain cases
표 Seasonal (left) and monthly (right) number of occurrences for low temperature cases
표 Local wind vector chart for the Korean Peninsula of low temperature case on 25th May 2011; (a) 00 UTC, (b) 03 UTC, (c) 06 UTC, and (d) 09 UTC (from KMA)
표 Local streamline and humidity chart for the Korean Peninsula of low temperature case on 25th May 2011; (a) 00 UTC, (b) 03 UTC, (c) 06 UTC, and (d) 09 UTC (from KMA)
표 Surface, 850 hPa, 500 hPa weather chart at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 AWS time-series observation of Sokcho, Gangneng, Donghae from 13:00 KST 15th to 01:00 KST 16th March 2019
표 Summary of options for physical parameterization test
표 Radar observation and 1-hr accumulated precipitation of physical parameterization test at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 Sea level pressure (line; hPa) and 2 m temperature (color; ℃) of CNTL (left), OPTS (middle), and OPTP (right) at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 Geopotential height (solid line; m) and temperature (dotted line; ℃) of CNTL (left), OPTS (middle), and OPTP (right) at 850 hPa (upper) and 500 hPa (lower) at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 AWS precipitation observation (mm; left) and 12-hr accumulated precipitation (mm) of (a) CNTL, (b) OPTS, and (c) OPTP at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 Difference of sea surface temperature and temperature at 850 hPa at (a) 09:00, (b) 15:00, and (c) 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 Vertical profiles of (a) water vapor mixing ratio (g/kg) and (b) equivalent potential temperature (K) from CNTL (solid), OPTS (dash), and OPTP (dot) averaged over domain 3
표 Sensible and latent heat flux (W/m2) from CNTL, OPTS, OPTP averaged over domain 3
표 Synoptic analysis weather chart for a CP expansion type Kor’easterly case
표 850hPa weather charts with cold advection anaysis. Red dashed line represent – 9℃ temperature
표 Relative humidity distribution with streamline of a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case. (Blue: high RH)
표 Convergence and relative humidity distribution with streamline of a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case. (Blue: high RH, Pink: convergence)
표 Satelite images for a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case. (White: precipitation cloud)
표 Radar reflectivity (hourly precipitation rate) for a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case
표 Hourly precipitation rate(mm/h) and 3 hours accumulated fresh snow(cm/3h) from KMA Automatic Weather System
표 Skew T - log P diagrams of Bukgangneung(Upper) station and Sokcho(bottom) station
표 Summary of the WRF model configuration for a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case
표 WPS domain Configuration for a CP expansion type Kor’easterly case
표 Zonal wind(U) field from 750 hPa (Upper), 850 hPa, 925 hPa, to 1000 hPa at 13 21KST, 14 03KST and 14 09KST
표 Zonal wind(U) for morning a) and b), afternoon c) and d) and night e) and f) at Surface level
표 Schematic diagram for CP expansion type of Kor’easterlies case. (a) blue checked cloud is early stage convective cloud and (b) skewed green line cloud is Later stage convective cloud
표 Synoptic analysis weather chart for a CP expansion with southern Low system type
표 Satelite images for a CP expansion with southern Low system type Kor’easterlies case
표 Radar reflectivity (hourly precipitation rate) for a CP expansion with southern Low system type Kor’easterlies case
표 Summary of the WRF model configuration for a CP expansion with southern Low system type
표 WPS domain Configuration for a CP expansion with Southern Low system type of Kor’easterlies
표 Vertical cross section on Domain 3 for analyzing vertical profile
표 Horizontal wind and Snow filed. Color shaded regions shows vertical wind speed and black contour shows horizontal wind along the cross section with 4m/s interval
표 Vertical cross section for Cloud and Snow. Color shaded regions shows vertical wind speed and black contour shows horizontal wind along the cross section with 4m/s interval
표 Schematic diagram for CP expansion with southern Low system type of Kor’easterlies case
표 Flow Chart of μ-GA
표 Parameters in KF-CuP to be optimized
표 Schemes of cumulus, microphysics, PBL, TOGD, GWD options in WRF used to optimize the set of schemes
표 Spatial distribution of 12 hrs accumulated precipitation from 0600 UTC to 1700 UTC 15 March 2019 (in mm) for (a) RDR-HSR (Radar-Hybrid Surface Rainfall) observation and (b) WRF default simulation (CNTL) within the domain 2
표 Summary of the WRF model configuration
표 Input parameters for μ-GA
표 The ETSs of 12 hrs accumulated precipitation forecast in terms of precipitation thresholds (in mm) of CNTL (black), OPTS (blue), and OPTP (red)
표 Sea surface temperature (color, K) and sea level pressure (line, hPa) of CNTL (left), SST+2 (middle), and SST-2 (right) at 09:00 (upper) and 21:00 (lower) KST 15th March 2019
표 1-hr accumulated precipitation (mm) of CNTL (left), SST+2 (middle), and SST-2 (right) at 21:00 KST 15th March 2019
표 12-hr accumulated precipitation (mm) of CNTL (left), SST+2 (middle), and SST-2 (right) at 02:00 KST 16th March 2019
표 Vertical time-series of snow mixing ratio (color, g/kg), potential temperature (line, K), and wind (m/s) in Donghae. X-axis is hour (UTC) on 15th March 2019
표 Summary of the WRF model configuration for a CP expansion type Kor’easterlies case
표 WPS domain Configuration for a CP expansion type Kor’easterly case
표 Gaema-plateau terrain height control
표 Terrain height setting for experiment control and experiment 2 and experiment 4
표 Froude Numbers with parameters
표 Divergence of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 at 2019-02-13 06 UTC
표 Streamline of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 at 2019-02-13 06 UTC
표 Divergence of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 at 2019-02-13 18 UTC
표 Precipitation of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 at 2019-02-13 09 UTC
표 Streamline of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 at 2019-02-13 09 UTC
표 12 hrs accumulated precipitation of CONT, EXP2, and EXP4 from 2019-02-13 12 UTC to 2019-02-14 00 UTC
표 WPS configuration domain setting with wind speed sensitivity testing area(yellow) for a CP expansion type case
표 Precipitation rate of Kor’easterlies Uwind sensitivity test. a) and b) are control, c) and d) are 20% Uwind increased and e) and f) are 40% increased at 03 KST and 09 KST of 14. Feb. 2019
표 Domain of simulation and result analysis
표 Latitude and longitude at each point
표 Model configurations
표 Bukgangneung sounding data used in initial condition
표 Conditions for moisture experiment. ※ summer/winter
표 Precipitation case for initial condition
표 Wind field results during the daytime in summer at Seorakdong, Gangneung and Singi
표 Same as in Fig.146 during the night
표 Moisture experiment results
표 Synoptic field experiment results during the daytime
표 Same as in Fig.149. during the night
표 Structure of LSTM
표 Proposed LSTM based model construction of easterly wind prediction
표 Range of target area
표 6x6 data structure for easterly wind prediction model
표 Number of data used for the easterly wind prediction
표 Parameters for deep learning technique
표 Numerical performance results for three pressure levels
표 Proposed LSTM based regression model construction of easterly wind speed prediction
표 Number of data used for the easterly wind speed prediction
표 Comparison of performance results for different data structures
표 Comparison results of improved LSTM based regression model and MLR ( 1 year)
표 Comparison results of improved LSTM based regression and MLR ( 5 years)
표 Visualization of improved LSTM based regression and MLR for 10x10 data (1 year)
표 Proposed LSTM based classification model construction for precipitation
표 Range of target area
표 18x18 data structure of classification model for precipitation
표 Number of data used for classification model for precipitation
표 Deep learning parameters for classification model for precipitation
표 Confusion matrix for precipitation classification in Kangwon area
표 Performance results for precipitation classification in Kangwon area
표 Confusion matrix for precipitation classification in Kyoungsang area
표 Performance results for precipitation classification in Kyoungsang area
표 Searching features related to easterly wind using GA
표 GA hyper parameters for searching features
표 Result of searching features related to easterly wind using GA(700hPa)
표 Result of searching features related to easterly wind using GA(850hPa)
표 Result of searching features related to easterly wind using GA(925hPa)
표 Comparison results of improved LSTM based regression and MLR (5 years) - entire features
표 Achievement of research and development

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