[보고서]일본 남동해역 대규모 지진의 진원모델과 지진해일 연구

강태섭

일본 남동해역 대규모 지진의 진원모델과 지진해일 연구 원문보기

보고서 정보
주관연구기관	부경대학교 Pukyong National University
연구책임자	강태섭
보고서유형	최종보고서
발행국가	대한민국
언어	한국어
발행년월	2018-05
과제시작연도	2017
주관부처	기상청 Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA)
등록번호	TRKO202200010103
과제고유번호	1365002621
사업명	기상·지진See-At기술개발연구
DB 구축일자	2022-10-06
키워드	파열 시나리오.지진해일.진원모델.난카이해구.수치모의.rupture scenairo.source model.tsunami.Nankai trough.numerical simulation.
DOI	https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO202200010103

초록 ▼

□ 연구의 목적 및 내용
• 2011년 동일본 대지진 이후, 이에 상응하는 또 다른 잠재적인 지진원으로 예상되는 일본 남동해역의 난카이 해구 지역의 지진에 대한 단층모델과 지진해일을 평가하여 대규모 지진 발생 시 시공간적인 지진해일의 영향 규명
• 일본 남동해역 난카이 해구 지역의 대규모 지진발생 시나리오에 따른 지진해일 영향범위와 규모를 예측하기 위하여, 역사지진과 물리학 기반 지진 발생 시나리오 구성
• 복수의 일본 남동해역 지진 발생 시나리오에 기반한 지진해일 수치모의를 통하여 대규모 지진해일을 수반하는 지진원 시나리오 데이터베이스 구축
• 역사 지진해일 기록으로부터 일본 근해를 비롯하여 한국 및 중국에 이르는 먼지역에까지 도달한 일본 남동해역 대규모 지진해일의 영향 범위 확인
• 일본 남동해역의 단층파열 시나리오를 통하여 장래 발생 가능한 대규모 지진과 지진해일 영향 평가
• 1707년 호에이 지진의 지진해일 기록을 충족하는 잠재 지진원 시나리오 작성
• 잠재 지진원 시나리오에 따른 지진해일의 전파양상과 영향 범위 및 규모 제시

□ 연구개발성과
• 국외논문 1편「Earth, Planets and Space」저널 게재
• 국외논문 2편「Geophysical Journal International」/「Journal of Geophysical Research」저널 심사중

□ 연구개발성과의 활용계획(기대효과)
• 난카이 해구 지역에서 발생할 수 있는 대규모 지진과 이로 인한 지진해일의 잠재성은 세계 자연재해 예상 시나리오 가운데 가장 위협적인 것의 하나임
• 한반도를 포함한 주변국의 지진해일 대비를 위한 기본 자료로 활용
• 최신 조사와 분석 결과를 토대로 구성한 대규모 지진원 모델과 역사기록을 통하여 검증된 지진해일 시나리오 구성으로 미래 잠재 지진원과 수반 가능한 재해 범위 예측에 기여

(출처 : 요약문 4p)

Abstract ▼

□ Purpose & Contents
We analyze several anticipated large earthquake scenarios to predict how they would affect Korea and what the size of the resulting tsunami would be. We collect the Nankai earthquake fault models and scenarios which are able to generate tsunami and we identify that one of the largest earthquake which is occurred in Japan has been reacehd Korea and China from the historical documents of the both countries.
Historical documents record tsunami waves reaching Korea and China. A part of this work will be to verify historical records by using seismic source models of the Nankai trough region to simulate possible tsunamis. Several source models are available from previous research, such as An'naka (2003), and Furumura (2011).
We will compare calculated tsunami heights near Korea, Japan, and China with historical records.
Also, based on database of source models and results of historical records, We will create new large earthquake scenarios. For this study, We need to calculate fault parameters such as fault geometry, rupture velocities, source time function.
The earthquake scenarios will consist of hypocenter, amount of slip, rupture velocity, rigidity and fault geometry. These parameters will be utilized to make earthquake scenarios. Then, We can obtain different models by applying each different parameters. The new large earthquake scenarios should be physically reliable but also well matched with the Japanese, Korean and Chinese historical records. Moreover, We will apply the scenarios to tsunami simulations. Then We will examine aspects, range, and propagation properties of potential tsunamis due to earthquakes near the Nankai trough region.

□ Results
We published a SCI paper in 「Earth, Planets and Space」. Two SCI papers are under review in 「Geophysical Journal International」and 「 Journal of Geophysical Research」.

□ Expected Contribution
This study will lead to techniques relevant to research about the physical properties of earthquake generation, dynamic fault rupture processes, and tsunamis resulting from such events. Furthermore, the tsunami simulations using seismic sources generated by dynamic rupture processes as well as physical properties will enable more precise predictions of tsunami wave heights. This kind of study will offer insights for mitigation of tsunami disasters in the Korean Peninsula.

(source : SUMMARY 5p)

목차 Contents

표지 ... 1
제출문 ... 2
보고서 요약서 ... 3
국문 요약문 ... 4
SUMMARY ... 5
Contents ... 6
목차 ... 7
제1장. 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 8
제2장. 국내외 기술 개발 현황 ... 10
제3장. 연구 수행 내용 및 성과 ... 11
제1절 개요 ... 11
제2절 2011 동일본 지진원 모델의 유효성 ... 14
제3절 한국에서의 일본 남동해역 지진해일 영향 ... 43
제4절 수정된 1707 호에이 지진모델의 제시 ... 59
제4장. 목표 달성도 및 관련 분야 기여도 ... 62
제5장. 연구개발성과의 활용계획 ... 64
제6장. 연구 과정에서 수집한 해외 과학기술 정보 ... 65
제7장. 연구개발성과의 보안등급 ... 66
제8장. 국가과학기술종합정보시스템에 등록한 연구시설·장비 현황 ... 67
제9장. 연구개발과제 수행에 따른 연구실 등의 안전 조치 이행 실적 ... 68
제10장. 연구개발과제의 대표적 연구 실적 ... 69
제11장. 기타 사항 ... 70
제12장. 참고 문헌 ... 71
끝페이지 ... 74

표/그림 (39)

표 Distribution of tsunami sources around Korea and Japan. Gray ellipses indicate tsunami sources caused by earthquakes. Bathymetry contoursare plotted at intervals of 2000 m
표 Bathymetry map of the Nankai Trough area. Thick gray line indicates the Nankai Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting underthe Eurasian Plate. The Nankai Trough is divided into four segments: Hyuga‐nada, Nankai, Tonankai, and Tokai
표 Finite fault models. (a) is USGS(Hayes., 2011). (b) is UCSBI(Shao et al., 2011) and (c) is UCSBIII(Shao et al., 2011)
표 Fault parameters of the three static fault models
표 The vertical seafloor displacement of the three finite fault models and three static fault models
표 The area of tsunami simulation (Lon. 125°E ~ 160°E, Lat. 25°N ~ 50°N). The star mark of red color is hypocenter(USGS, 142.369°E, 38.322°N) and the triangle marks of yellow color are DART buoy 21413, 21418, 21419
표 Snapshots of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami propagation applying UCSB-III finite fault model
표 Comparison graph between 3 finite fault models and 3 uniform models at the three DART buoys
표 RMS of residuals between observed data and simulated data applying fault models at each buoys
표 The maximum tsunami height distribution along the Korean coasts
표 Spatial maxium tsunami amplitude distribtuion of the six fault models
표 Seven slip distribution models of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Solid line shows thedepth of the subducting Pacific plate and the interval is 20 km. Dark graysolid line is the plate boundary.Starsymbol represents the epicenter of each source model
표 Totalvertical seafloor displacement of seven source models. Red and blue colorsrepresent uplift and subsidence, respectively. Gray solid and dotted lines arethe contour lines of uplift and subsidence at 1.5 m intervals, respectively.Star symbol represents the epicenter of each source model
표 Tsunami simulation region. Starrepresents the epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and triangles indicatethe station locations of observation data used in this study. Yellow trianglesymbols are DART buoys and light orange triangles are tide gauges
표 Plots of simulated andobserved tsunami waveforms at the DART buoys. Gray region represents theduration of the time window
표 (a) Mean normalized RMSmisfit of the DART buoy stations, (b) tide gauges in the southern offshoreregion of Korea, (c) tide gauges on the northwest coast of Japan, and (d) tidegauges on the east coast of Korea. Gray rectangle is the total mean normalizedRMS misfit for each model
표 (a) Mean normalizedresiduals of the DART buoy stations, (b) tide gauges in the southern offshoreregion of Korea, (c) tide gauges on the northwest coast of Japan, and (d) tidegauges on the east coast of Korea. Gray rectangle is the total mean normalizedresidual for each model
표 Comparison of syntheticwaveforms and observations at stations on located the south coast of Korea andthe west coast of Kyushu Island. Gray region represents the duration of thetime window
표 Delay between observations and synthetic wave profiles of the seven source models
표 (a)Observations at Nezuegaseki, Ogi, and Wajima stations along the northwest coastof Japan. (b) Observations at Sokcho, Mukho, Hupo, and Pohang stations alongthe eastern coast of Korea
표 Comparison of syntheticwaveforms and observations at stations located on the southwest coast ofHonshu, Japan. Gray region represents the duration of the time window
표 Total vertical seafloordisplacement throughout the back-arc basin. The contour line has an interval of1 cm. Note that the dark blue color ranges from –0.3 m to –0.1 m. The rangefrom –0.3 to -0.03 is plotted using the same color
표 Comparison of syntheticwaveforms and observations at stations located on the east coast of the KoreanPeninsula. Gray region represents the duration of the time window
표 a Slip distribution of the 1707 Hoei earthquake fault segments. b Vertical seafloor displacement
표 Fault parameters of the 1707 Hoei earthquake deduced by Furumura et al. (2011)
표 Maps of the areas of tsunami simulation. a Entire area of tsunami simulation. Rectangular box shows the region enlarged in c. b Topographyaround Jeju Island. c Coastlines of the Korean Peninsula and Jeju Island
표 Simulated sea surface height distribution for propagation of the 1707 Hoei tsunami. The elapsed times of a T = 0 min (initial tsunami heightdistribution), b T = 60 min, c T = 120 min, d T = 180 min, e T = 200 min, and f T = 300 min after occurrence of the Hoei earthquake. Colors indicatesea level heights, whose scale is shown in the bottom right of panel f
표 Simulated maximum tsunami height along coastlines. Panels a, b show the maximum tsunami height distributions along the coastlines ofthe southern Korean Peninsula and Jeju Island, respectively. H1, H2, H3, and H4 in these panels represent the tsunami heights at points P1, P2, P3,and P4 in c and d, respectively. Panels c, d show the coastlines corresponding to a and b, respectively. In panel d, each color corresponds to thecolors of the height distributions in b
표 Simulated tsunami waveforms of the Hoei earthquake. The waveforms a, b, c, and d are for the points P1, P2, P3, and P4 in Fig. 6, respectively
표 Simulated tsunami waveforms on the eastern sea of China. The waveforms are estimated at the virtual stations located on the easternChinese coast (Fig. 22a)
표 Simulated tsunami height distributions of the Hoei earth‐quake. a Snapshot of the simulated tsunami height at the elapsedtime of 180 min after occurrence of the Hoei earthquake. The yellowtriangle symbols indicate virtual stations. The interval of depth contouris 25 m. b Maximum tsunami height distribution around Korea andChina. Scales for both gures are in units of meters
표 Vertical sea oor deformation for the anticipated earthquake scenarios. The four earthquake models SC01, SC02, SC03, and SC04 wereconstructed by Hok et al. (2011). Red and blue colors indicate uplift and subsidence on the sea bottom, respectively. The slip on the fault is contouredat 1m intervals
표 Maximum tsunami height distributions for the four anticipated Nankai earthquake scenarios. The upper four rows show the simulationresults using the models SC01, SC02, SC03, and SC04
표 Comparison between simulation results of the Hoei earthquake source model and the four scenarios. Maximum tsunami height distribu‐tions for the 1707 Hoei earthquake source model (red) and the four anticipated Nankai earthquake scenarios (black and gray)
표 Tsunami height distributions for di erent values of the stress drop. Maximum tsunami height distributions for di erent values of stress dropin light gray and dark gray. SC03_A and SC03_B have twofold and threefold greater stress drop compared with the scenario SC03, respectively. Themaximum height distribution of the Hoei earthquake is shown in yellow
표 The maximum tsunami amplitude distribution along the coast line of Korea of the 1707 Hoei fault model (a) and scenario SC3 (b)
표 Fault parameters of the revised segment fault of the 1707 Hoei earthquake model by Furumura et al. (2011)
표 Vertical seafloor displacement of the 1707 Hoei earthquake proposed by Furumura et al. (2011) and this study
표 Comparision of the maximum tsunami amplitudes along the Korean caost line derived using the original fault model by Furumura et al. (2011) and revised its model in this study

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일본 남동해역 대규모 지진의 진원모델과 지진해일 연구 원문보기