This study aims to analyse how sensitive the attributes of the activity based model are, by using simulations. Activity based models can be used to reflect occupants' behavior during evacuation in emergencies. Physical and psychological attributes were selected for the sensitivity analysis, these at...
This study aims to analyse how sensitive the attributes of the activity based model are, by using simulations. Activity based models can be used to reflect occupants' behavior during evacuation in emergencies. Physical and psychological attributes were selected for the sensitivity analysis, these attributes are; mobility, travel speed, agility, response time, drive and patience. The total evacuation time, or simulation results, were analysed statistically. After that, an evacuation experiment simulating arson in a train car was carried out. In this study, 292 participants were collected at a subway station. The evacuation experiment was recorded on video cameras installed in the station. After evacuating, the evacuation times were analysed by the evacuees' route and behavioural characteristics were also analysed. Subesequently, a technical simulation method based on potential attraction rate was suggested, this was based on the sensitivity analysis results and the experimental results. The simulation results applying this method were analysed by comparison with the results of the shortest-exit-finding method which was the default case, and the experimental results.
Results are as follows.
1) Results of the sensitivity analysis of the building EXODUS using physical and psychological attributes, show that mobility, travel speed, and response time were more sensitive than drive, agility, and patience. Mobility responded most sensitively at the level of 0.10 and 0.19, while travel speed turned out to be the most sensitive at the level of 1.00m/s and 1.90m/s. As the response time increased, the total evacuation time increased linearly. As the drive range became narrower, the average cumulative time increased by about 5 seconds, but this did not appear to affect the increase in the total evacuation time. Lastly, agility and patience did not show much effect to the results.
2) Results of the evacuation experiment at the subway station turned out to show that evacuation times taken differed by gender. The fastest female evacuated the station in 62 seconds, while about 40% of the male finished evacuation in 70 seconds. The average evacuation time of the male was 73 seconds, while female's average evacuation time was 90 seconds. This shows that 23% longer was taken to evacuate for the female participants than the male participants.
3) The preparation order for evacuation proved to be an important factor in determining the order for evacuation, and there was a big gap in the evacuation times between male and female. 24% of the male participants evacuated from the train within 1 second and 78% of males completed the evacuation from the train within 3 seconds. The number of female participants who evacuated from the train within 1 second was only 14% and the number who evacuated within 3 seconds was 63%. This means that the male participants evacuated from the train more rapidly than the female participants did. The female participants were less influenced by the initial evacuation time from the train than the male participants were. This meant that female participants were more influenced by other factors in the evacuation process than male participants.
4) The average travel speeds by gender and by section were as follows: 2.1m/s for the males and 1.6m/s for the females on the floors; 1.5m/s for the males and 1.1m/s for females on the stairs.
5) A technical simulation method based on potential attraction rate was suggested and was applied to the simulation results. The simulation results were analysed by comparison with the results of the default method (the case with the shortest time needed to find the way), and the experimental results. The simulation results by the default method showed 326.1 seconds of the total evacuation time, which was 194 seconds over-predicted when compared with the empirical result of 132.0 seconds. When applying the suggested simulation methods, the total evacuation time was 170.3 seconds, resulting in an improvement of 155.7 seconds in the total evacuation time.
When it comes to representations of emergency situations, evacuation experiments surely have limitations. However, despite these limitations, the aim of the experiment was to overcome the impossibility of representing real disaster situations. The sensitivity analysis and the simulation techniques suggested can be said to reflect the experimental results reasonably well enough, which is therefore meaningful. More experiments with a wide age range of participants and further studies to develop the simulation techniques are needed.
This study aims to analyse how sensitive the attributes of the activity based model are, by using simulations. Activity based models can be used to reflect occupants' behavior during evacuation in emergencies. Physical and psychological attributes were selected for the sensitivity analysis, these attributes are; mobility, travel speed, agility, response time, drive and patience. The total evacuation time, or simulation results, were analysed statistically. After that, an evacuation experiment simulating arson in a train car was carried out. In this study, 292 participants were collected at a subway station. The evacuation experiment was recorded on video cameras installed in the station. After evacuating, the evacuation times were analysed by the evacuees' route and behavioural characteristics were also analysed. Subesequently, a technical simulation method based on potential attraction rate was suggested, this was based on the sensitivity analysis results and the experimental results. The simulation results applying this method were analysed by comparison with the results of the shortest-exit-finding method which was the default case, and the experimental results.
Results are as follows.
1) Results of the sensitivity analysis of the building EXODUS using physical and psychological attributes, show that mobility, travel speed, and response time were more sensitive than drive, agility, and patience. Mobility responded most sensitively at the level of 0.10 and 0.19, while travel speed turned out to be the most sensitive at the level of 1.00m/s and 1.90m/s. As the response time increased, the total evacuation time increased linearly. As the drive range became narrower, the average cumulative time increased by about 5 seconds, but this did not appear to affect the increase in the total evacuation time. Lastly, agility and patience did not show much effect to the results.
2) Results of the evacuation experiment at the subway station turned out to show that evacuation times taken differed by gender. The fastest female evacuated the station in 62 seconds, while about 40% of the male finished evacuation in 70 seconds. The average evacuation time of the male was 73 seconds, while female's average evacuation time was 90 seconds. This shows that 23% longer was taken to evacuate for the female participants than the male participants.
3) The preparation order for evacuation proved to be an important factor in determining the order for evacuation, and there was a big gap in the evacuation times between male and female. 24% of the male participants evacuated from the train within 1 second and 78% of males completed the evacuation from the train within 3 seconds. The number of female participants who evacuated from the train within 1 second was only 14% and the number who evacuated within 3 seconds was 63%. This means that the male participants evacuated from the train more rapidly than the female participants did. The female participants were less influenced by the initial evacuation time from the train than the male participants were. This meant that female participants were more influenced by other factors in the evacuation process than male participants.
4) The average travel speeds by gender and by section were as follows: 2.1m/s for the males and 1.6m/s for the females on the floors; 1.5m/s for the males and 1.1m/s for females on the stairs.
5) A technical simulation method based on potential attraction rate was suggested and was applied to the simulation results. The simulation results were analysed by comparison with the results of the default method (the case with the shortest time needed to find the way), and the experimental results. The simulation results by the default method showed 326.1 seconds of the total evacuation time, which was 194 seconds over-predicted when compared with the empirical result of 132.0 seconds. When applying the suggested simulation methods, the total evacuation time was 170.3 seconds, resulting in an improvement of 155.7 seconds in the total evacuation time.
When it comes to representations of emergency situations, evacuation experiments surely have limitations. However, despite these limitations, the aim of the experiment was to overcome the impossibility of representing real disaster situations. The sensitivity analysis and the simulation techniques suggested can be said to reflect the experimental results reasonably well enough, which is therefore meaningful. More experiments with a wide age range of participants and further studies to develop the simulation techniques are needed.
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