This study is related with Jeju-do Island situated on the
southwest sea of the Korean Peninsula at the center of
Northeast Asia. Jeju-do’s geopolitic advantage recently
increases together with a profitable tourist conditions as World
Natural Treasures, and its advancement is rapidly ...
This study is related with Jeju-do Island situated on the
southwest sea of the Korean Peninsula at the center of
Northeast Asia. Jeju-do’s geopolitic advantage recently
increases together with a profitable tourist conditions as World
Natural Treasures, and its advancement is rapidly achieved with
a sudden increase of recent tourists owing to the adjacent
position with Korea mainland, China and Japan which have
benefits natural scenery and a lot of potential tourist demand
with an unique volcanic island topography. As the tourist industry rapidly grows, Jeju’s population and economy are also
in a trend of growth.
As Jeju-do was selected as the world top-7 natural scenery
in succession with certification of Preservation Region of
Biosphere, World Natural Heritage and World Geological Park and
the recognition degree of domestic peoples and neighboring
countries about Jeju becomes high, tourists likely increase
gradually. It is expected as domestic peoples and Chinese
tourists largely increase, Jeju-do will leap by a step.
It is expected that Jeju-do will continue to develop due to a
series of development plan and a doubt about whether such
development will progress to a right direction is arose a bit. It is
because difference of opinions may occur between
implementation of a tourist complex suitable for a natural
environment or development orientation on regional development.
Jeju-do is somewhat separated from the mainland, and its area
and population are relatively small. The development by Jeju-do
authority is currently needed since the overland traffic with the
mainland is not connected. As its tourist demand rapidly
increases, the development for Jeju-city. Seoguipo-city and the
other tourist area is performed and accordingly these areas are
gradually changed to artificial facilities. It is expected that
development pressure will also apply to the neighboring areas. It
is considered that policy methods must be presented on the
consideration of geopolitical conditions of the Jeju-do and the
forecast of the change trend in the region. So, I will search for policy methods considering the change of
future environment through presentation of the expansion of
tourist infrastructure and the cultivation methods of tourist spots
by forecasting tourist demand and analyzing the tourist industry
and tourist characteristics on the geopolitical position effects,
population effects and economic growth rate with a potential
tourist demand of domestic/foreign tourists as the recognition
degree of neighboring countries for Jeju-do. In addition, to
respond to the increase of its tourist demand, I will place the
importance of this study in predicting the direction of tourist
policy in respect of Jeju residents by analyzing the priority of
its tourist industry policy through expert questionnaire by sector
The scope of this study is for Jeju-city and Seoguipo-city, and
the time scope of the study is by the 2030 year. The reason of
time scope by that time is because I determined that forecast
error will not be large since almost all factor sectors of Jeju-do
grow in a linear trend during the relevant period. Jeju-do’s
administrative zones were restructures as Jeju-city and
Seoguipo-city but I will particularly divide the zones into
Jeju-dong and Seoguipo-dong and other Eup and Myoeon units
in this study, and largely analyze the zones into Jeju-city,
Seoguipo-city and other tourist spots.
Regarding the method of this study, I will analyze Jeju-do’s
response strategy in respect of tourist efficiency and the
advancement of tourist industry since it is expected that its
tourist demand rapidly increases. For the forecast, tourist demand in Chapter 3, I will perform analysis and forecast on the
time series data related with tourist demand and economic
growth rate, and suggest the expansion methods of tourist
facility and the cultivation methods of tourist spots on the base
of forecast of tourist demand as a response method.
For the time series analysis in forecast of tourist demand, I
analyzed mainly in a linear model on the data after 2005 due to
trend of a rapid increase of the population and tourist demand,
and selected the analysis of a non-linear model for the
necessary part. For the forecast of non-linear model, I predict
on the assumption of a linear model due to trend of a recent
rapid increase for population and of a almost linear increase by
2030 for tourist demand. The forecast of specially tourist
demand, I predicted tourist demand on nation by introducing the
application of an economic growth theory, the use of logistic
curve and a demand decision model of international tourist. I
predicted it particularly for Korea and China.
Policy methods considering the change of future tourist
environment, I will search for response methods by suggesting
the cultivation methods of tourist accommodation facilities and
natural ecology experience type of tourist spots after mentioning
the cultivation of tourist industry, medical tourist industry, cruise
industries, the expansion of airport facilities and the necessity of
a beautiful port for tourists. I will suggest direction points and
response methods on the focus of creation of lodging facilities
and resort residence complex for the expansion of tourist infrastructure facility, and more cultivation of artificial tourist
spots than the existing natural tourist spots for the cultivation of
natural ecology experience type of tourist spots respectively.
This study is also purposed to analyze the priority of policy
execution through a questionnaire survey by using civil servants
who actually execute policy, related parties of the corporation
related with development profits following policy execution, and
researchers in the academic and research field who theoretically
examine the development and execution of policies as a sample
group. In addition, analyzing difference between priorities of
policies and priorities by the sample groups on questionnaire
survey can provide important implications for settling policy
difficulties in Jeju-do where a tourist industry sector takes
charge of a predominant weight, and for the execution of policy
undergoing the difficulty in the use of available budgets and
human resources. Accordingly, I will examine policy priorities
through the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis as a
hierarchial decision-making method to reflect relevant policies
on the tourist industry policy to be executed for Jeju residents.
Since financial difficulties increase in simultaneously executing
various policies due to gradual expansion of the Jeju-do’s
tourist industry, consideration of the priority of policy execution
in the Jeju’s tourist industry gradually becomes important. The
importance of this study is given to giving an implication in
policy execution and policy objects and examining difference of
viewpoints between related sectors in policy execution.
This study is related with Jeju-do Island situated on the
southwest sea of the Korean Peninsula at the center of
Northeast Asia. Jeju-do’s geopolitic advantage recently
increases together with a profitable tourist conditions as World
Natural Treasures, and its advancement is rapidly achieved with
a sudden increase of recent tourists owing to the adjacent
position with Korea mainland, China and Japan which have
benefits natural scenery and a lot of potential tourist demand
with an unique volcanic island topography. As the tourist industry rapidly grows, Jeju’s population and economy are also
in a trend of growth.
As Jeju-do was selected as the world top-7 natural scenery
in succession with certification of Preservation Region of
Biosphere, World Natural Heritage and World Geological Park and
the recognition degree of domestic peoples and neighboring
countries about Jeju becomes high, tourists likely increase
gradually. It is expected as domestic peoples and Chinese
tourists largely increase, Jeju-do will leap by a step.
It is expected that Jeju-do will continue to develop due to a
series of development plan and a doubt about whether such
development will progress to a right direction is arose a bit. It is
because difference of opinions may occur between
implementation of a tourist complex suitable for a natural
environment or development orientation on regional development.
Jeju-do is somewhat separated from the mainland, and its area
and population are relatively small. The development by Jeju-do
authority is currently needed since the overland traffic with the
mainland is not connected. As its tourist demand rapidly
increases, the development for Jeju-city. Seoguipo-city and the
other tourist area is performed and accordingly these areas are
gradually changed to artificial facilities. It is expected that
development pressure will also apply to the neighboring areas. It
is considered that policy methods must be presented on the
consideration of geopolitical conditions of the Jeju-do and the
forecast of the change trend in the region. So, I will search for policy methods considering the change of
future environment through presentation of the expansion of
tourist infrastructure and the cultivation methods of tourist spots
by forecasting tourist demand and analyzing the tourist industry
and tourist characteristics on the geopolitical position effects,
population effects and economic growth rate with a potential
tourist demand of domestic/foreign tourists as the recognition
degree of neighboring countries for Jeju-do. In addition, to
respond to the increase of its tourist demand, I will place the
importance of this study in predicting the direction of tourist
policy in respect of Jeju residents by analyzing the priority of
its tourist industry policy through expert questionnaire by sector
The scope of this study is for Jeju-city and Seoguipo-city, and
the time scope of the study is by the 2030 year. The reason of
time scope by that time is because I determined that forecast
error will not be large since almost all factor sectors of Jeju-do
grow in a linear trend during the relevant period. Jeju-do’s
administrative zones were restructures as Jeju-city and
Seoguipo-city but I will particularly divide the zones into
Jeju-dong and Seoguipo-dong and other Eup and Myoeon units
in this study, and largely analyze the zones into Jeju-city,
Seoguipo-city and other tourist spots.
Regarding the method of this study, I will analyze Jeju-do’s
response strategy in respect of tourist efficiency and the
advancement of tourist industry since it is expected that its
tourist demand rapidly increases. For the forecast, tourist demand in Chapter 3, I will perform analysis and forecast on the
time series data related with tourist demand and economic
growth rate, and suggest the expansion methods of tourist
facility and the cultivation methods of tourist spots on the base
of forecast of tourist demand as a response method.
For the time series analysis in forecast of tourist demand, I
analyzed mainly in a linear model on the data after 2005 due to
trend of a rapid increase of the population and tourist demand,
and selected the analysis of a non-linear model for the
necessary part. For the forecast of non-linear model, I predict
on the assumption of a linear model due to trend of a recent
rapid increase for population and of a almost linear increase by
2030 for tourist demand. The forecast of specially tourist
demand, I predicted tourist demand on nation by introducing the
application of an economic growth theory, the use of logistic
curve and a demand decision model of international tourist. I
predicted it particularly for Korea and China.
Policy methods considering the change of future tourist
environment, I will search for response methods by suggesting
the cultivation methods of tourist accommodation facilities and
natural ecology experience type of tourist spots after mentioning
the cultivation of tourist industry, medical tourist industry, cruise
industries, the expansion of airport facilities and the necessity of
a beautiful port for tourists. I will suggest direction points and
response methods on the focus of creation of lodging facilities
and resort residence complex for the expansion of tourist infrastructure facility, and more cultivation of artificial tourist
spots than the existing natural tourist spots for the cultivation of
natural ecology experience type of tourist spots respectively.
This study is also purposed to analyze the priority of policy
execution through a questionnaire survey by using civil servants
who actually execute policy, related parties of the corporation
related with development profits following policy execution, and
researchers in the academic and research field who theoretically
examine the development and execution of policies as a sample
group. In addition, analyzing difference between priorities of
policies and priorities by the sample groups on questionnaire
survey can provide important implications for settling policy
difficulties in Jeju-do where a tourist industry sector takes
charge of a predominant weight, and for the execution of policy
undergoing the difficulty in the use of available budgets and
human resources. Accordingly, I will examine policy priorities
through the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis as a
hierarchial decision-making method to reflect relevant policies
on the tourist industry policy to be executed for Jeju residents.
Since financial difficulties increase in simultaneously executing
various policies due to gradual expansion of the Jeju-do’s
tourist industry, consideration of the priority of policy execution
in the Jeju’s tourist industry gradually becomes important. The
importance of this study is given to giving an implication in
policy execution and policy objects and examining difference of
viewpoints between related sectors in policy execution.
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