This study established a concept of an environmental maintenance flow and considered a change of rainfall pattern by a climatic change, so established a watershed model reflecting RCP climatic change scenario to analyze the effect on a water environment in an object basin of study and to calculate a...
This study established a concept of an environmental maintenance flow and considered a change of rainfall pattern by a climatic change, so established a watershed model reflecting RCP climatic change scenario to analyze the effect on a water environment in an object basin of study and to calculate and evaluate an environmental maintenance flow. The researcher conducted a behavior analysis on water environment factors in basin calculated by a watershed model reflecting a climatic change scenario, and calculated an environmental maintenance flow about each point of an object basin by using a load duration curve.
As a result of an analysis on a water environment in a basin, a flow change showed a difference of increase and decrease according to each scenario and point, so in RCP scenario, a flow change increased to 9.1 ~ 27.1 ㎥/sec by 3.4 ~ 16.3 % in Mankyeong A, Mankyeong B, and Jeonju A, and a flow change increased to 9.1 ~ 26.8 ㎥/sec by 3.4 ~ 15.5 % in RCP 8.5 scenario. In addition, it was expected that a flow change decreased to 1.1 ~ 1.2 ㎥/sec by 23.0 ~ 29.5 % in Topcheon A. A change of pollution loading amount decreased in most points except for Mankyeong A, and showed a difference of increase and decrease by scenarios. It increased by 21.8 ~ 32.8 % according to each scenario in Mankyeong A. In Mankyeong B, it increased by 3.4 % in RCP 4.5 scenario, and by 0.1 % in RCP 8.5 scenario. It decreased by 7.6 ~ 9.0 % in Jeonju A, and by 14.6 ~ 19.1 % in Topcheon A.
As a result to examine an environmental flow by environmental management classes by an environmental sulfur curve, it was confirmed that a climatic change scenario has a direct impact on various changes of sulfur in a basin, and it was analyzed that an environmental change of a basin except for a short-term sulfur change has an impact on a long-term management class of an river.
It was analyzed that an excess rate of emission loading amount by points by a load duration curve by scenarios exceeds by 31.2 ~ 52.3 % in standard period, and by 6 ~ 48 % in prospective period. The highest excess rate was showed in Mankyeong B. It was showed that an excess rate by flow sections exceeds an average excess rate in a flow of normal and dry seasons, and it was analyzed that Mankyeong B and Jeonju A exceed target water quality in general flow section.
As a result to calculate an environmental maintenance flow of prospective period based on a result of an analysis on a load duration curve, it was calculated that Mankyeong A is 4.62 ㎥/sec, Mankyeong B is 14.24 ㎥/sec, Jeonju A is 6.14 ㎥/sec, and Topcheon A is 0.42 ㎥/sec, and most points except for Topcheon A are higher than a standard flow suggested by advanced research. As a result to calculate an environmental maintenance flow in standard period, it was examined that a relatively low level of an environmental maintenance flow is calculated in all points except for Mankyeong B.
This study established a concept of an environmental maintenance flow and considered a change of rainfall pattern by a climatic change, so established a watershed model reflecting RCP climatic change scenario to analyze the effect on a water environment in an object basin of study and to calculate and evaluate an environmental maintenance flow. The researcher conducted a behavior analysis on water environment factors in basin calculated by a watershed model reflecting a climatic change scenario, and calculated an environmental maintenance flow about each point of an object basin by using a load duration curve.
As a result of an analysis on a water environment in a basin, a flow change showed a difference of increase and decrease according to each scenario and point, so in RCP scenario, a flow change increased to 9.1 ~ 27.1 ㎥/sec by 3.4 ~ 16.3 % in Mankyeong A, Mankyeong B, and Jeonju A, and a flow change increased to 9.1 ~ 26.8 ㎥/sec by 3.4 ~ 15.5 % in RCP 8.5 scenario. In addition, it was expected that a flow change decreased to 1.1 ~ 1.2 ㎥/sec by 23.0 ~ 29.5 % in Topcheon A. A change of pollution loading amount decreased in most points except for Mankyeong A, and showed a difference of increase and decrease by scenarios. It increased by 21.8 ~ 32.8 % according to each scenario in Mankyeong A. In Mankyeong B, it increased by 3.4 % in RCP 4.5 scenario, and by 0.1 % in RCP 8.5 scenario. It decreased by 7.6 ~ 9.0 % in Jeonju A, and by 14.6 ~ 19.1 % in Topcheon A.
As a result to examine an environmental flow by environmental management classes by an environmental sulfur curve, it was confirmed that a climatic change scenario has a direct impact on various changes of sulfur in a basin, and it was analyzed that an environmental change of a basin except for a short-term sulfur change has an impact on a long-term management class of an river.
It was analyzed that an excess rate of emission loading amount by points by a load duration curve by scenarios exceeds by 31.2 ~ 52.3 % in standard period, and by 6 ~ 48 % in prospective period. The highest excess rate was showed in Mankyeong B. It was showed that an excess rate by flow sections exceeds an average excess rate in a flow of normal and dry seasons, and it was analyzed that Mankyeong B and Jeonju A exceed target water quality in general flow section.
As a result to calculate an environmental maintenance flow of prospective period based on a result of an analysis on a load duration curve, it was calculated that Mankyeong A is 4.62 ㎥/sec, Mankyeong B is 14.24 ㎥/sec, Jeonju A is 6.14 ㎥/sec, and Topcheon A is 0.42 ㎥/sec, and most points except for Topcheon A are higher than a standard flow suggested by advanced research. As a result to calculate an environmental maintenance flow in standard period, it was examined that a relatively low level of an environmental maintenance flow is calculated in all points except for Mankyeong B.
주제어
#Climatic Change RCP Scenario Environmental Maintenance Flow
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